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This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps – one is climate-change-induced and one is civil-war-induced – and the two poverty traps may reinforce one another. The model is calibrated to sub-Saharan Africa and a double Monte Carlo analysis is conducted in order to account for both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity. Although the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) is used as the baseline, thus assuming rapid economic growth in Africa and convergence of African living standards to the rest of the world, the impacts of civil war and climate change (ignored in SRES) are sufficiently strong to keep a number of countries in Africa in deep poverty with a high probability.

It is increasingly acknowledged that climate change is influencing terrestrial ecosystems by increased drought and rainfall intensities. Soil microbes are key drivers of many processes in terrestrial systems and rely on water in soil pores to fulfill their life cycles and functions. However, little is known on how drought and rainfall fluctuations, which affect the composition and structure of microbial communities, persist once original moisture conditions have been restored. Here, we study how simulated short-term drying and re-wetting events shape the community composition of soil fungi and prokaryotes. In a mesocosm experiment, soil was exposed to an extreme drought, then re-wetted to optimal moisture (50% WHC, water holding capacity) or to saturation level (100% WHC). Composition, community structure and diversity of microbes were measured by sequencing ITS and 16S rRNA gene amplicons 3 weeks after original moisture content had been restored. Drying and extreme re-wetting decreased richness of microbial communities, but not evenness. Abundance changes were observed in only 8% of prokaryote OTUs, and 25% of fungal OTUs, whereas all other OTUs did not differ between drying and re-wetting treatments. Two specific legacy response groups (LRGs) were observed for both prokaryotes and fungi. OTUs belonging to the first LRG decreased in relative abundance in soil with a history of drought, whereas OTUs that increased in soil with a history of drought formed a second LRG. These microbial responses were spread among different phyla. Drought appeared to be more important for the microbial community composition than the following extreme re-wetting. 16S profiles were correlated with both inorganic N concentration and basal respiration and ITS profiles correlated with fungal biomass. We conclude that a drying and/or an extreme re-wetting history can persist in soil microbial communities via specific response groups composed of members with broad phylogenetic origins, with possible functional consequences on soil processes and plant species. As a large fraction of OTUs responding to drying and re-wetting belonged to the rare biosphere, our results suggest that low abundant microbial species are potentially important for ecosystem responses to extreme weather events.

The agriculture and horticulture sector in the Netherlands is one of the most productive in the world. Although the sector is one of the most advanced and intense agricultural production systems worldwide, it faces challenges, such as climate change and environmental and social unsustainability of industrial production. To overcome these challenges, alternative food production initiatives have emerged, especially in large cities such as Amsterdam. Some initiatives involve producing food in the urban environment, supported by new technologies and practices, so-called high-tech urban agriculture (HTUA). These initiatives make cultivation of plants inside and on top of buildings possible and increase green spaces in urban areas. The emerging agricultural technologies are creating new business environments that are shape d by technology developers (e.g., suppliers of horticultural light emitting diodes (LED) and control environment systems) and developers of alternative food production practices (e.g., HTUA start-ups). However, research shows that the uptake of these technological innovations in urban planning processes is problematic. Therefore, this research analyzes the barriers that local government planners and HTUA developers are facing in the embedding of HTUA in urban planning processes, using the city of Amsterdam as a case study. This study draws on actor-network theory (ANT) to analyze the interactions between planners, technologies, technology developers and developers of alternative food production practices. Several concepts of ANT are integrated into a multi-level perspective on sustainability transitions (MLP) to create a new theoretical framework that can explain how interactions between technologies and planning actors transform the incumbent social–technical regime. The configuration of interactions between social and material entities in technology development and adoption processes in Amsterdam is analyzed through the lens of this theoretical framework. The data in this study were gathered by tracing actors and their connections by using ethnographic research methods. In the course of the integration of new technologies into urban planning practices, gaps between technologies, technology developers, and planning actors have been identified. The results of this study show a lacking connection between planning actors and technology developers, although planning actors do interact with developers of alternative food production practices. These interactions are influenced by agency of artefacts such as visualizations of the future projects. The paper concludes that for the utilization of emerging technologies for sustainability transition of cities, the existing gap between technology developers and planning actors needs to be bridged through the integration of technology development visions in urban agendas and planning processes.

A membrane assisted process for green hydrogen production from a bioethanol derived feedstock is here developed and evaluated, starting from the conventional Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) process. Such a process is suitable for centralized hydrogen production, and is here analyzed for a large-scale H2 production unit with the capacity of 40.000 Nm3/h. The basic Steam Ethanol Reforming (SER) process scheme is modified in a membrane assisted process by integrating the Pd-membrane separation steps in the most suitable reaction steps. The membrane assisted process, configured in three alternative architectures (Open architecture, Membrane Reactor and Hybrid architecture) was evaluated in terms of efficiencies and hydrogen yields, obtaining a clear indication of improved process performance. The alternative membrane assisted process architectures are compared to the basic SER process and to the benchmark SMR process fed by natural gas, for an overall comparative assessment of the efficiency and specific CO2 emissions and for an economic analysis based on the operating expenditures.