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Improving access to sustainable energy services and reducing the carbon footprint and deforestation of developing countries presents a substantial challenge to the development industry. This paper aims to critically assess two prevalent business models emerging to meet this challenge: financial institution–technology provider partnerships and the one-stop-shop, pay-as-you-go (PAYG) model. The authors find that collaborations between financial institutions and energy providers need to address grey areas such as product quality standards, marketing, and post-sales services, and incorporate feedback loops to continually evaluate the performance of the partnership. Pay-as-you-go presents an intriguing business case to leapfrog more traditional energy access programmes. However, more robust results from the field need to be reported before the PAYG movement can claim success. Ultimately, collaborative and integrated actions by all stakeholders are needed to achieve universal energy access.

This paper investigates the meaning of systemic risk in energy markets and proposes a methodology to measure it. Energy Systemic Risk is defined by the risk of an energy crisis raising the prices of all energy commodities with negative consequences for the real economy. Measures of the total cost (EnSysRISK) and the net impact (ΔMES) of an energy crisis on the rest of the economy are proposed. The measures are derived from the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) capturing the tail dependence between the asset and the energy market factor. The adapted MES accounts for causality and dynamic exposure to common latent factors. The methodology is applied to the European Energy Exchange and the DAX industrial index, where a minor decline in industrial productivity is observed from recent energy shocks.

Abstract Floods are challenging the resilience of societies all over the world. In many countries there are discussions on diversifying the strategies for flood risk management, which implies some sort of policy change. To understand the possibilities of such change, a thorough understanding of the forces of stability and change of underlying governance arrangements is required. It follows from the path dependency literature that countries which rely strongly on flood infrastructures, as part of flood defense strategies, would be more path dependent. Consequently there is a higher chance to find more incremental change in these countries than in countries that have a more diversified set of strategies. However, comparative and detailed empirical studies that may help scrutinize this assumption are lacking. To address this knowledge gap, this paper investigates how six European countries (Belgium, England, France, The Netherlands, Poland and Sweden) essentially differ with regard to their governance of flood risks. To analyze stability and change, we focus on how countries are responding to certain societal and ecological driving forces (ecological turn; climate change discourses; European policies; and the increasing prevalence of economic rationalizations) that potentially affect the institutional arrangements for flood risk governance. Taking both the variety of flood risk governance in countries and their responses to driving forces into account, we can clarify the conditions of stability or change of flood risk governance arrangements more generally. The analysis shows that the national-level impact of driving forces is strongly influenced by the flood risk governance arrangements in the six countries. Path dependencies are indeed visible in countries with high investments in flood infrastructure accompanied by strongly institutionalized governance arrangements (Poland, the Netherlands) but not only there. Also more diversified countries that are less dependent on flood infrastructure and flood defense only (England) show path dependencies and mostly incremental change. More substantial changes are visible in countries that show moderate diversification of strategies (Belgium, France) or countries that ‘have no strong path yet’ in comprehensive flood risk governance (Sweden). This suggests that policy change can be expected when there is both the internal need and will to change and a barrage of (external) driving forces pushing for change.

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of urbanization on energy consumption by applying the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) in case of Malaysia. The study covers the time period of 1970Q1–2011Q4. The unit root test and the ARDL bounds testing approach have been applied to examine integrating properties and long run relationship in the presence of structural breaks. Our results validated the existence of cointegration and exposed that urbanization is a major contributor in energy consumption. Affluence raises energy demand. Capital stock boosts energy consumption. Trade openness leads to affluence and hence increases energy consumption. The causality analysis finds that urbanization Granger causes energy consumption. The feedback effect is found between energy consumption and affluence and, energy consumption and capital. The bidirectional causality exists between trade openness and energy consumption.

Le changement d'utilisation des terres/de couverture est la principale cause de dégradation des écosystèmes terrestres. Cependant, ses impacts seront exacerbés en raison du changement climatique et de la croissance démographique, entraînant une expansion agricole en raison de la demande accrue de denrées alimentaires et de la baisse des rendements agricoles dans certaines zones tropicales. Les stratégies internationales visant à atténuer les impacts du changement climatique et du changement du couvert terrestre sont difficiles dans les régions en développement. Cette étude vise à évaluer des alternatives pour minimiser les impacts de ces menaces dans le cadre de trajectoires socio-économiques, dans l'une des régions les plus biologiquement riches du Guatemala et du Mexique. Cette étude est située dans le bassin versant d'Usumacinta, une région transfrontalière qui partage une histoire commune, avec des propriétés biophysiques et des contraintes économiques similaires qui ont conduit à d'importants changements dans l'utilisation/la couverture des terres. Pour comprendre les impacts sur la déforestation et les émissions de carbone des différentes pratiques de gestion des terres, nous avons développé trois scénarios (1) : le statu quo (BAU), (2) un scénario de réduction des émissions visant à réduire la déforestation et la dégradation (REDD+) et (3) zéro déforestation à partir de 2030 sur la base des engagements internationaux. Nos résultats suggèrent que d'ici 2050, la couverture terrestre naturelle pourrait réduire de 22,3 et 12,2% son étendue dans les scénarios BAU et REDD +, respectivement par rapport à 2012. Cependant, le scénario zéro déforestation montre que d'ici 2050, il serait possible d'éviter de perdre 22,4 % du bassin versant boisé (1,7 million d'hectares) et d'en récupérer 5,9 % (0,4 million d'hectares). En termes de séquestration du carbone, les projets REDD + peuvent réduire les pertes de carbone dans la végétation naturelle, mais une politique de zéro déforestation peut doubler la séquestration du carbone produite par les projets REDD + uniquement. Cette étude montre que pour réduire les pressions sur les écosystèmes, en particulier dans les régions fortement marginalisées avec des migrations importantes, il est nécessaire de mettre en œuvre des politiques transfrontalières de gestion des terres qui intègrent également des stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté. El cambio en el uso/cobertura de la tierra es la principal causa de la degradación de los ecosistemas terrestres. Sin embargo, sus impactos se exacerbarán debido al cambio climático y al crecimiento de la población, impulsando la expansión agrícola debido a una mayor demanda de alimentos y menores rendimientos agrícolas en algunas áreas tropicales. Las estrategias internacionales destinadas a mitigar los impactos del cambio climático y el cambio en la cobertura del uso de la tierra son un desafío en las regiones en desarrollo. Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar alternativas para minimizar los impactos de estas amenazas bajo trayectorias socioeconómicas, en una de las regiones biológicamente más ricas de Guatemala y México. Este estudio se encuentra en la cuenca de Usumacinta, una región transfronteriza que comparte una historia común, con propiedades biofísicas y limitaciones económicas similares que han llevado a grandes cambios en el uso/cobertura de la tierra. Para comprender los impactos en la deforestación y las emisiones de carbono de las diferentes prácticas de gestión de la tierra, desarrollamos tres escenarios (1): negocios como siempre (BAU), (2) un escenario de reducción de emisiones destinado a reducir la deforestación y la degradación (REDD+) y (3) cero deforestación a partir de 2030 en función de los compromisos internacionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que para 2050, la cobertura natural de la tierra podría reducir el 22.3 y el 12.2% de su extensión bajo los escenarios BAU y REDD +, respectivamente, en comparación con 2012. Sin embargo, el escenario de deforestación cero muestra que para 2050, sería posible evitar la pérdida del 22,4% de la cuenca forestal (1,7 millones de ha) y recuperar el 5,9% (0,4 millones de hectáreas) de la misma. En términos de secuestro de carbono, los proyectos REDD + pueden reducir las pérdidas de carbono en la vegetación natural, pero una política de deforestación cero puede duplicar el secuestro de carbono producido solo por los proyectos REDD +. Este estudio muestra que para reducir las presiones sobre los ecosistemas, particularmente en regiones altamente marginadas con una migración significativa, es necesario implementar políticas transfronterizas de gestión de la tierra que también integren estrategias de alivio de la pobreza. Land-use/cover change is the major cause of terrestrial ecosystem degradation. However, its impacts will be exacerbated due to climate change and population growth, driving agricultural expansion because of higher demand of food and lower agricultural yields in some tropical areas. International strategies aimed to mitigate impacts of climate change and land use-cover change are challenging in developing regions. This study aims to evaluate alternatives to minimize the impacts of these threats under socioeconomic trajectories, in one of the biologically richest regions in Guatemala and Mexico. This study is located at the Usumacinta watershed, a transboundary region that shares a common history, with similar biophysical properties and economic constraints which have led to large land use/cover changes. To understand the impacts on deforestation and carbon emissions of different land-management practices, we developed three scenarios (1): business as usual (BAU), (2) a reducing emissions scenario aimed to reduce deforestation and degradation (REDD+), and (3) zero-deforestation from 2030 onwards based on the international commitments. Our results suggest that by 2050, natural land cover might reduce 22.3 and 12.2% of its extent under the BAU and REDD + scenarios, respectively in comparison with 2012. However, the zero-deforestation scenario shows that by 2050, it would be possible to avoid losing 22.4% of the forested watershed (1.7 million ha) and recover 5.9% (0.4 million hectares) of it. In terms of carbon sequestration, REDD + projects can reduce the carbon losses in natural vegetation, but a zero-deforestation policy can double the carbon sequestration produced by REDD + projects only. This study shows that to reduce the pressures on ecosystems, particularly in regions highly marginalized with significant migration, it is necessary to implement transboundary land-management policies that also integrate poverty alleviation strategies. استخدام الأراضي/تغيير الغطاء هو السبب الرئيسي لتدهور النظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي. ومع ذلك، ستتفاقم آثاره بسبب تغير المناخ والنمو السكاني، مما يؤدي إلى التوسع الزراعي بسبب ارتفاع الطلب على الغذاء وانخفاض الغلة الزراعية في بعض المناطق الاستوائية. تشكل الاستراتيجيات الدولية الرامية إلى التخفيف من آثار تغير المناخ وتغير استخدام الأراضي تحدياً في المناطق النامية. تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تقييم البدائل لتقليل آثار هذه التهديدات في إطار المسارات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، في واحدة من أغنى المناطق بيولوجيًا في غواتيمالا والمكسيك. تقع هذه الدراسة في مستجمع مياه أوسوماسينتا، وهي منطقة عابرة للحدود تشترك في تاريخ مشترك، مع خصائص فيزيائية حيوية مماثلة وقيود اقتصادية أدت إلى تغييرات كبيرة في استخدام الأراضي/تغطيتها. لفهم تأثيرات ممارسات إدارة الأراضي المختلفة على إزالة الغابات وانبعاثات الكربون، وضعنا ثلاثة سيناريوهات (1): العمل كالمعتاد (BAU)، (2) سيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الذي يهدف إلى الحد من إزالة الغابات وتدهورها (REDD+)، و (3) إزالة الغابات الصفرية اعتبارًا من عام 2030 فصاعدًا بناءً على الالتزامات الدولية. تشير نتائجنا إلى أنه بحلول عام 2050، قد يقلل الغطاء الأرضي الطبيعي بنسبة 22.3 و 12.2 ٪ من مداه في إطار سيناريو العمل الاعتيادي وسيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية، على التوالي مقارنة بعام 2012. ومع ذلك، يُظهر سيناريو إزالة الغابات الصفرية أنه بحلول عام 2050، سيكون من الممكن تجنب فقدان 22.4 ٪ من مستجمعات المياه الحرجية (1.7 مليون هكتار) واستعادة 5.9 ٪ (0.4 مليون هكتار) منها. من حيث عزل الكربون، يمكن لمشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية أن تقلل من خسائر الكربون في الغطاء النباتي الطبيعي، ولكن سياسة إزالة الغابات الصفرية يمكن أن تضاعف عزل الكربون الناتج عن مشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية فقط. تُظهر هذه الدراسة أنه للحد من الضغوط على النظم الإيكولوجية، لا سيما في المناطق المهمشة للغاية مع الهجرة الكبيرة، من الضروري تنفيذ سياسات إدارة الأراضي العابرة للحدود التي تدمج أيضًا استراتيجيات التخفيف من حدة الفقر.

This article describes the process of business activity organization on the regional level and possible influence that external factors cause on it. It is stated that in the years 2010-2016 the number of economic entities in Ukraine has slightly decreased. It is concluded that the share of all the types of enterprises is similar in Ukraine comparing with the EU averages, although there is a significant deviation in the indices of businesses by 10 thousand population which in Ukraine are less than the average for EU countries. In the process of researching the state of development of business activity and the problems of SME development are being indicated. The problems include the following: lack of business support programs at the national level; inconsistency of bank lending to the requirements of business (high interest rates); insufficient infrastructure to support business; unsatisfactory state of vocational training; lack of seed capital for business creation; lack of working capital for business development. It’s concluded that the business model of any business activity plays the role of a template in the process of creation and operation of business in the certain circumstances. It also is an important step in the strategic planning, which includes an overview of future business that in turn affects the evaluation of the main keys of success of the enterprise and determines its growth. The model of business creation is relatively based on resource approach, which is concentrated on the resources and capabilities of the enterprise and is the most important for determining strategic actions. In the perfect circumstances the resources for business activity are meant to become the part of the process of business creation and development. They may be helpful not only as route map of the project implementing but also as its main part. The issue of developing the set of measures that provide the specific tasks of development and activity of small and medium enterprises at the regional level that will ensure efficient use of any information and implementation of scientific approach in business was further developed. The measures mentioned include: implementing the support of entrepreneurship; microcredit funding of the SMEs; increasing the number of small and medium-sized businesses in the production and others. The article also states that business is entirely dependent on the state system concept. The set of measures that provide specific tasks of development and activity of small and medium enterprises (stimulation of entrepreneurship, attracting business in the IT sector, the promotion of export-oriented businesses) should not only solve the economic problems of the country and the region but social issues as well: providing more working places and supporting the small business in the regions. The research and conclusions gained in this article may be used as the theoretical and practical material for government in order to support the SMEs and for entrepreneurs who intend to start their own business.

Actual importance of research theme: Combating hunger and providing the Earth’s population with sufficient amount of products is considered one of the strategic priorities of human civilization sustainable development by the UN up to 2030. The rapid growth of this planet’s human population in the 21st century, estimated at 7.6. billion people, leads to the global demand for production and foodstuff. Simultaneously, traditional strategies of extensive development conventional in the 20th century and “target” intensification of agriculture do not take expected positive effect nowadays. World economy requires for new strategies of agricultural production, as well as promoting ‘green revolution’ based on the ground of IT technology advances and “Industry 4.0.”. The generalization of world experience concerning development and implementing agricultural production strategies in the 21st century is of greater theoretical and practical importance for all countries which export agricultural production in mass scales, including Ukraine which focuses on the leadership in the world agricultural business. Thus, the urgency of the issue confirms the actual importance of this article. The problem statement. Foodstuff output in world economy is growing slowly and does not meet the increasing demand for food and agricultural products in industry in global scales. Under these conditions the manufacturers of agricultural products like farmers, agro-businesses and agro-holdings, as well as transnational corporation alter and modify agricultural strategies that were conventional in the 20th century. Among the new strategies transition to precision farming and innovational agriculture based on implementing IT technologies takes the leading role. The core and socio-economic consequences of such strategy implementation require further study. Analysis of latest studies and publication. The important contribution to the study of the core and dimensions of agricultural production strategies linked to innovation and investment development as well as to improvement property relations is made by such Ukrainian scholars as P. Makarenko, V. Pilyavskiy [1] and O. Shul’ga [2]. Foreign scientists like Smaller, C., andW. Speller, withH. Mirza, N. Bernasconi-Osterwalder, andG. Dixie [3] paid the specific attention to the study of strategic priorities concerning risks minimization and profit maximization by agro-businesses and TNC within the realization of agricultural contracts at world markets. Overseas researchers KeatingB., HerreroM., CarberryP. [4] emphasized on actual importance of compliance with strategy of foodstuff security in global environment in their studies. However, the issue of developing the strategy of precise agricultural production based on widespread use of innovation and IT technologies, research into socio-economic consequences accompanying their implementation in the 21st century remains poorly studied. Research challenge of general issue. The issue of studies the core and elements of agricultural production development process in world economy is highlighted in world economic literature pretty well. Nevertheless, the study of TNCs and agricultural businesses strategies and strategies concerning transition of TNCs to the development of precise agriculture is really meaningful. Besides, at present time the trends of direct foreign investments as for agricultural lands purchase and priorities analysis of their use by TNCs in developed and developing world countries are uncertain. Socio economic consequences of mass precise agriculture introduction for national economy in countries with agrarian specialization also require detailed researching. Problem statement, objective of research. The objective of research is to highlight the core and define the regularity of formation, as well as emphasize the basic expected socio-economic consequences of precise agriculture development strategy implementing on the grounds of generalization the world experience of agricultural TNC sactivity. To achieve the objective set the article aimed at solution the following tasks: to note the main ‘players’ at the world agricultural market and study the priorities of their economic activity; to study the core and the elements of ‘green revolution’ strategy, as well as strategy of transition to precise agricultural production based on implementing innovations and IT technologies; to define strategic goals of TNCs as for the use of acquiring land ( at the cost of direct foreign investments) on the grounds of generalization developed and developing countries experience; to point out the expected socio-economic consequences of mass implementation of precise agricultural production strategies by TNCs and national agro-businesses for the economy of the countries specialized in agriculture. Method and methodology of the study. While studying the world experience of implementation the precise agricultural production development strategies theoretical and empirical methods of scientific research were employed. Historical and logical methods, abstract and specific methods, methods of analysis and synthesis, as well as causal (cause-and-effect) method were applied in the article to define strategic priorities of agricultural business and agricultural TNC specialization, to point out expected socio-economic consequences of mass transition to precise agricultural production in the countries with agrarian specialization. Synergetic approach, method of expert estimates and casual methods were applied to ground “green revolution” strategy, as well as strategy of TNCs as for transition to precise agriculture based on innovations and IT technologies. The results of study. Agricultural production is presented by farmers, households, state agricultural sector, national agro-businesses and agro-holdings, international TNCs. As a rule, farms are focused on domestic market; they specialize in production of minor parties of manual crop production and horticulture, grow vegetables, fruit and berries, as well as they are engaged in poultry farming, beekeeping, dairy production, stockbreeding in rather small scales. The farmers in developed world countries, particularly EU countries, concentrate on organic production which is of high demand among middle-class representatives. In EU countries farming is traditionally supported by the state, as it bears both economic and social valuable functions, i.e. assists in rural development and creates workplaces in countryside. The main stakeholders at the mass agricultural market in the world are considered large national and international agro-holdings an TNCs specialized in agricultural production and its industrial processing. TNCs shaped the closed loop – from selection to agricultural production, from its processing to its manufacturing. At the cost of large production scales, as well as capital concentration and centralization it is the agricultural TNCs which leads in production and export of foodstuffs at world markets. TNCs ‘ leadership at world agriculture markets is grounded on ‘green revolution’ strategy implementing, which consists of such elements as innovations, bio-selection to produce performance breed, intensive growth in crop productivity, including the one using GMO which makes cropping insensitive to water shortage, high temperatures and droughts. Agrarian TNCs in the 21st century actively implement the strategies of transition to precise agriculture based on the use of innovations and IT technologies. As the world experience confirms, strategies of transition to precise agriculture combine the following innovations: astronaut and aviation technologies, unmanned technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles; mass transition to the use of apparatus to analyze the ground online; spreading of “agro-scouting” innovation technologies as for field information gathering concerning the condition and development of agriculture; implementation intellectual system of managerial decision-making support; introduction of monitoring and control auto-system and implementation of IT-system as for account of agriculture process elements. The development of precise agriculture for national world economies which are agriculture-based offers a lot of benefits, such as: increase in labor productivity in agriculture; the decrease in employment that saves working capital of agro-businesses; industrialization and technical renovation of agrarian sector which promotes the market for IT products, precise machine building; increase in commerce and export potential of the country, mainly, in the sphere of monostructural crop production (grain, corn, soya, raps, oilseeds etc.). Such strategies also provide revitalization of direct foreign investment processes by TNCsconcerning purchasing farmland in the developing countries with their further listing as raw materials supplier for TNCs. The latter shape and control international links of production value added to all kinds of agricultural products. Among the risks which implementation of precise agriculture strategies bear for national developing country’s economy which are agriculture-based the following should be mentioned: risks concerning decrease in farms and decline in production of labor-intensive small-scale agriculture products (vegetables, fruit, honey etc.); risks of jobs recession and, respectively, the number of rural population and others. There are also other risks linked to these processes like risks of growing volumes of ready foodstuffs import, chronic scarcity of state budget and increase in internal debt, enhancing migration processes etc. In case of falling world prices for foodstuffs and worsening global conditions for agriculture products, including agrarian raw materials, in particular, due to another world economic crisis, the abandonment of occasional farmland purchased by TNCs in developing agrarian countries, their further freezing and ceasing the processing for better times should not be excluded. Under such circumstances the risks of famine for countries which could lose the managerial control over own land resources are also a threatening exercise as for implementing such TNC strategy. The field of results application. International economic relations and world economy, development of agriculture competitive strategies in world countries and agrarian TNCs in world economy. Conclusions. Farms, agro-businesses, agro-holdings and agrarian TNCs are the economic centres of mass agriculture production in all world countries. Farms are mainly specialized in labour-intensive small-scale agriculture production like horticulture, gardening, bee-keeping etc. Large agro-businesses and agrarian TNCs choose the strategy of specializing in mass monostructural agriculture production such as crop production (grain, corn, soya beans and industrial crops). In developed world countries TNCs apply the strategy of farmlands multi-purpose use, including the goals aimed at development and processing livestock and crop production; at development of renewable energy and bio-energy. In developed world countries TNCs focus on processing all kinds of agriculture products and foodstuffs production with high value added. Purchasing of farmlands by TNCs in developing countries, in particular, at the cost of direct foreign investment, provides for implementation the strategy of purchased lands engagement, mainly, to develop crop production as a raw basis for their further processing in the native countries for TNCs. The general world trend of agrarian TNCs development is use of innovation technologies, transition to precise agriculture based on IT technologies, aviation and astronautic technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles and other innovations which positively impact labor productivity and mass industrial production profitability, as well as choose transition to monostructural agrarian specialization as a priority, but bear a set of social risks for developing countries’ economies. Transition of Ukrainian agro-businesses and agro-holdings to the strategy of precise agriculture development based on innovations and IT technologies provides Ukraine’s competitiveness at the world agrarian markets. This process should go hand-in-hand with land reform taking into account Ukrainian farming interests. Establishing industrial processing of agriculture raw products and production of ready foodstuffs with high value added should be strategic for Ukraine.

Introduction. The problem of Ukraine's economic development in modern conditions is directly related to the implementation of the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement, so the national economy is facing new opportunities and challenges, including the lack of effective mechanisms to restrict timber exports. The research aimed at assessing the effectiveness of the export bans to the EU. Aim and tasks. The aim of the paper is to study the mechanisms of regulation of the timber market and their export to the EU. Results. The impact of the imposed moratorium on the declared goals is analyzed in the paper. Analyzed statistics show no effect moratorium on the reduction of deforestation and halt exports of unprocessed timber. It is also impossible to make a clear conclusion about the positive impact of the moratorium on the supply of raw materials of domestic enterprises woodworking and furniture industries. However, within the structure of Ukrainian exports, the share of products of woodworking and furniture industries has increased. This was due to the reduction of Ukrainian export volumes against the background of increasing the share of exports of timber and wood products, as well as the resumption of sales of the furniture industry. Conclusions. A study of the ban on raw wood showed that in general, the effect of the moratorium imposed is not obvious, since the number of woodworking enterprises has increased and the level of employment in these sectors has increased. Ukraine requires the adoption of a comprehensive targeted program that would combine measures to develop both the woodworking and forest industries. The national interest of Ukraine is the preservation and restoration of forests, and the moratorium introduced is an example of how partial, fragmentary unsystematic decisions are made. The practical significance of the results allows to analyze existing and find new alternative export balance, ensuring equal opportunities and non-discrimination between domestic and European Union market.