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AbstractDengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks, indicating that dengue tends to become established in areas after introduction. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.Author summaryDengue is a mosquito-borne disease that has expanded rapidly around the world due to increased urbanisation, global mobility and climate change. In Brazil, geographical barriers to dengue transmission exist, beyond which certain areas including South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest are relatively protected from outbreaks. However, we found that the previous barrier in South Brazil has shifted futher south as a result of increased temperature suitability. The previously identified barrier protecting the western Amazon no longer exists. This is particularly concerning as we found dengue outbreaks tend to become established in areas after introduction. Highly influential cities with many transport links had increased odds of an outbreak. However, the most influencial cities had lower odds of an outbreak than cities connected regionally. This study highlights the importance of monitoring the expansion of dengue outbreaks and designing disease prevention strategies for areas at risk of future outbreaks as well as areas in the established dengue transmission zone.

The repository software dream has been a team of dedicated, in-house developers who work within their institutions and the various OS communities, hand-crafting new functionality and sharing the code. The reality has always been more complicated and messy. For a variety of reasons, many institutions find themselves without expert repository developers, but still needing to have bespoke work carried out. And commercial service providers have stepped up with offers to bridge this gap. Increasingly, institutions are working with such service providers as their technical partners. For the institutions, it means that OS software remains a viable option even without an in-house technical team. But can commercial providers be invested in Open Source in the same way that in-house developers are? Do they contribute to the long-term stability, sustainability and accessibility of OS software and communities, or are they just taking the money? The panel will present a range of views from both commercial service providers, those who keep technical expertise in-house, and some who do a little of both. We expect the discussion to be lively, though-provoking and insightful, hopefully sparking further discussions in the community about how we might continue to sustain the OS community within repositories.

Abstract Energy systems in rural China are experiencing a transition from traditional fossil fuels to renewables. This paper aims to investigate the potential factors that influence the choices of rural residents regarding water heaters with a focus on the low-carbon transition to solar water heating systems. To this end, a face-to-face questionnaire survey is undertaken with 3404 rural households randomly selected among 12 representative provinces. A comprehensive set of discrete choice modelling approaches were used. The empirical results show that (1) sociodemographic variables have significant effects on residents’ first-stage choice of a water heater (to buy or not to buy) but few effects on the second-stage decision to choose electric, LPG, or solar water heaters (which type to buy); (2) information spillover is important to facilitate the usage of water heaters, particularly of solar products; (3) the electricity price, which is regulated at a very low rate, has no apparent effect on the choice of solar water heaters; (4) government subsidy has a significant effect in the first stage but no differentiated effect on the decision choice in the second stage. Policy and managerial implications are presented to speed up the ongoing low-carbon transition of energy systems in China.

• Local authority health professionals perceive climate change as a risk to health in the UK.

Future climate change is likely to pose significant challenges for heritage management, especially in landscape settings, such as river valleys as the magnitude, intensity and nature of geomorphological processes alter in response to changing threshold conditions. Industrial landscapes afford particular challenges for the heritage community, not only because the location of these historic remains is often intimately linked to the physical environment, but also because these landscapes can be heavily polluted by former (industrial) processes and, if released, the legacy of contaminants trapped in floodplain soils and sediments can exacerbate erosion and denudation. Responding to these challenges requires the development of methodologies that consider landscape change beyond individual sites and monuments and this paper reports the development of such an approach based on investigation of the Derwent Valley Mills World Heritage Site, Derbyshire, UK. Information on geomorphological evolution of the Derwent Valley over the last 1000 years, a time period encompassing the last two periods of major climatic deterioration, the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, has been dovetailed with archaeological and geochemical records to assess how the landscape has evolved to past landscape change. However, in addition to assessing past evolution, this methodology uses national climate change scenarios to predict future river change using the CAESAR-Lisflood model. Comparison of the results of this model to the spatial distribution of World Heritage Site assets highlights zones on the valley floor where pro-active mitigation might be required. The geomorphological and environmental science communities have long used predictive computer modelling to help understand and manage landscapes and this paper highlights an approach and area of research cross-over that would be beneficial for future heritage management.

The implementation of access and benefit-sharing (ABS) protocols, and especially the Nagoya Protocol, has created new hurdles for international collaborations around Indigenous Traditional Knowledge. Overall, these frameworks push for the development of novel collaborative North–South agendas to improve the fair distribution of benefits. The Green Health Project (Guatemala) aims to implement a culturally pertinent and mutually accepted framework for sustainable use, as well as ABS of traditional medicinal plants. It involves developing a consensus among Indigenous groups, government officials, industry, and academia. We describe steps undertaken to design and implement an intercultural transdisciplinary process that promotes trust building and advances herbal medicine research in a respectful and innovative way. This involves joint definition of goals and methods. The consortium co-researched Q’eqchi’ Maya traditional medicine, collected voucher specimens of medicinal plants with traditional Healers, identified their taxa, and later developed a literature-based evaluation identifying species for potential product development. No samples for further research and development were collected. By applying the emic–etic concept, the project helped improve understanding of the main drivers of each stakeholder and the associated obstacles for reaching an ABS agreement. The project also explored the emergence of potential new drivers for developing evidence-based herbal medicine from the perspectives of academia, policy, cooperation, and grassroots Indigenous movements.