• Energy Research
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Energy forecasting is an essential task in power system operations. Operators usually issue forecasts and leverage them to schedule energy dispatch ahead of time. However, forecast models are typically developed in a way that overlooks the operational value of the forecasts. To bridge the gap, we design a value-oriented point forecasting approach for sequential energy dispatch problems with renewable energy sources. At the training phase, we align the loss function with the overall operation cost function, thereby achieving reduced operation costs. The forecast model parameter estimation is formulated as a bilevel program. Under mild assumptions, we convert the upper-level objective into an equivalent form using the dual solutions obtained from the lower-level operation problems. Additionally, a novel iterative solution strategy is proposed for the newly formulated bilevel program. Under such an iterative scheme, we show that the upper-level objective is locally linear regarding the forecast model output, and can act as the loss function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, compared to commonly used statistical quality-oriented point forecasting methods, forecasts obtained by the proposed approach result in lower operation costs. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is more computationally efficient than traditional two-stage stochastic programs. Accepted in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Creating and delivering products and services that promote sustainability is increasingly important in today’s economy. Novel services based on digital technologies and infrastructure can significantly contribute to sustainable development, as demonstrated by digitally enabled car-sharing services where increased asset utilization reduces production-related greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is still limited knowledge on how digital service innovation can purposefully be applied to promote sustainability. To address this gap, we conduct a systematic literature review and perform a qualitative inductive analysis of 50 articles on the impact of digital service innovation on social, environmental, and economic sustainability. We provide a comprehensive overview of real-world applications and identify five underlying mechanisms through which innovation with digital services can drive sustainable development. In doing so, we aim to pave the way to purposefully conceive, design, and implement digital services for sustainability.

Abstract Future “net-zero” electricity systems in which all or most generation is renewable may require very high volumes of storage in order to manage the associated variability in the generation-demand balance. The physical and economic characteristics of storage technologies are such that a mixture of technologies is likely to be required. This poses nontrivial problems in storage dimensioning and in real-time management. We develop the mathematics of optimal scheduling for system adequacy, and show that, to a good approximation, the problem to be solved at each successive point in time reduces to a linear programme with a particularly simple solution. We argue that approximately optimal scheduling may be achieved without the need for a running forecast of the future generation-demand balance. We consider an extended application to GB storage needs, where savings of tens of billions of pounds may be achieved, relative to the use of a single technology, and explain why similar savings may be expected elsewhere.

Synchronous condensers (SCs) play important roles in integrating wind energy into relatively weak power grids. However, the design of SCs usually depends on specific application requirements and may not be adaptive enough to the frequently-changing grid conditions caused by the transition from conventional to renewable power generation. This paper devises a software-defined virtual synchronous condenser (SDViSC) method to address the challenges. Our contributions are fourfold: 1) design of a virtual synchronous condenser (ViSC) to enable full converter wind turbines to provide built-in SC functionalities; 2) engineering SDViSCs to transfer hardware-based ViSC controllers into software services, where a Tustin transformation-based software-defined control algorithm guarantees accurate tracking of fast dynamics under limited communication bandwidth; 3) a software-defined networking-enhanced SDViSC communication scheme to allow enhanced communication reliability and reduced communication bandwidth occupation; and 4) Prototype of SDViSC on our real-time, cyber-in-the-loop digital twin of large-wind-farm in an RTDS environment. Extensive test results validate the excellent performance of SDViSC to support reliable and resilient operations of wind farms under various physical and cyber conditions.

With California's ambitious goal to achieve decarbonization of the electrical grid by the year 2045, significant challenges arise in power system investment planning. Existing modeling methods and software focus on computational efficiency, which is currently achieved by simplifying the associated unit commitment formulation. This may lead to unjustifiable inaccuracies in the cost and constraints of gas-fired generation operations, and may affect both the timing and the extent of investment in new resources, such as renewable energy and energy storage. To address this issue, this paper develops a more detailed and rigorous mixed-integer model, and more importantly, a solution methodology utilizing surrogate level-based Lagrangian relaxation to overcome the combinatorial complexity that results from the enhanced level of model detail. This allows us to optimize a model with approximately 12 million binary and 100 million total variables in under 48 hours. The investment plan is compared with those produced by E3's RESOLVE software, which is currently employed by the California Energy Commission and California Public Utilities Commission. Our model produces an investment plan that differs substantially from that of the existing method and saves California over 12 billion dollars over the investment horizon.

Recent years have witnessed exponential growth in developing deep learning models for time series electricity forecasting in power systems. However, most of the proposed models are designed based on the designers’ inherent knowledge and experience without elaborating on the suitability of the proposed neural architectures. Moreover, these models cannot be self-adjusted to dynamically changed data patterns due to the inflexible design of their structures. Although several recent studies have considered the application of the neural architecture search (NAS) technique for obtaining a network with an optimized structure in the electricity forecasting sector, their training process is computationally expensive and their search strategies are not flexible, indicating that the NAS application in this area is still at an infancy stage. In this study, we propose an intelligent automated architecture search (IAAS) framework for the development of time series electricity forecasting models. The proposed framework contains three primary components, that is, network function–preserving transformation operation, reinforcement learning–based network transformation control, and heuristic network screening, which aim to improve the search quality of a network structure. After conducting comprehensive experiments on two publicly available electricity load data sets and two wind power data sets, we demonstrate that the proposed IAAS framework significantly outperforms the 10 existing models or methods in terms of forecasting accuracy and stability. Finally, we perform an ablation experiment to showcase the importance of critical components in the proposed IAAS framework in improving forecasting accuracy. History: Accepted by Ram Ramesh, Area Editor for Data Science and Machine Learning. Funding: J. Yang, G. Jiang, and Y. Chen were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72293562, 72121001, 72101066, 72131005, 71801148, and 72171060]. Y. Chen was supported by the Heilongjiang Natural Science Excellent Youth Fund [YQ2022G004]. Supplemental Material: The software ( Yang et al. 2023 ) that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2023.0034 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2023.0034 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Abstract The renewable fuel standard (RFS), which requires oil refineries to blend ethanol into domestic fuel supplies, is a market-based policy that implements tradable compliance credits so as better to equalize compliance costs across firms. We exploit unanticipated regulatory announcements that caused major swings in the prices of these compliance credits to retrieve reduced-form estimates of how the RFS affects the stock prices of publicly-traded refining firms. Our analysis reveals no significant stock price response among smaller firms in our sample and a small but statistically significant price response among large refiners. These findings are relevant to policy in that they cast doubt on concerns that the RFS allows integrated refiners to abuse merchant refiners. Our findings also shed light on the necessity of small refinery exemptions, which are intended to shield small, financially vulnerable refiners from RFS compliance costs.