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Participatory modeling has been widely recognized in recent years as a powerful tool for dealing with risk and uncertainty. By incorporating multiple perspectives into the structure of a model, we hypothesize that sources of risk can be identified and analyzed more comprehensively compared to traditional ‘expert-driven’ models. However, one of the weaknesses of a participatory modeling process is that it is typically not feasible to involve more than a few dozen people in model creation, and valuable perspectives on sources of risk may therefore be absent. We sought to address this weakness by conducting parallel participatory modeling processes in three countries in West Africa with similar climates and smallholder agricultural systems, but widely differing political and cultural contexts. Stakeholders involved in the agricultural sector in Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria participated in either a scenario planning process or a causal loop diagramming process, in which they were asked about drivers of agricultural productivity and food security, and sources of risk, including climate risk, between the present and mid-century (2035–2050). Participants in all three workshops identified both direct and indirect sources of climate risk, as they interact with other critical drivers of agricultural systems change, such as water availability, political investment in agriculture, and land availability. We conclude that participatory systems methods are a valuable addition to the suite of methodologies for analyzing climate risk and that scientists and policy-makers would do well to consider dynamic interactions between drivers of risk when assessing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

The levels of production diseases (PD) and the cow replacement rate are high in dairy farming. They indicate excessive production demands on the cow and a poor state of animal welfare. This is the subject of increasing public debate. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of production diseases on the economic sustainability of dairy farms. The contributions of individual culled cows to the farm’s economic performance were calculated, based on milk recording and accounting data from 32 farms in Germany. Cows were identified as ‘profit cows’ when they reached their individual ‘break-even point’. Data from milk recordings (yield and indicators for PD) were used to cluster farms by means of a principal component and a cluster analysis. The analysis revealed five clusters of farms. The average proportion of profit cows was 57.5%, 55.6%, 44.1%, 29.4% and 19.5%. Clusters characterized by a high proportion of cows with metabolic problems and high culling and mortality rates had lower proportions of profit cows, somewhat irrespective of the average milk-yield per cow. Changing the perception of PD from considering it as collateral damage to a threat to the farms’ economic viability might foster change processes to reduce production diseases.

A retrospective analysis of a large database of maternal and litter variables in rats collected over several years evaluated the robustness of fetal alcohol effects on birthweight. Pregnant rats were fed a liquid diet in which 35% of the calories were derived from alcohol. Control dams were pairfed an isocaloric liquid diet or were fed lab chow ad lib. Alcohol exposure produced large, highly significant, and reliable decreases in birthweight of male and female pups. Multiple regression analyses indicated that alcohol exposure per se, much more than restricted caloric intake alone, caused these effects. Litters of pairfed dams weighed less than chowfed controls but the effects were less consistent, varying with season and requiring more litters to discriminate the effects of restricted caloric intake. Power analyses indicated that 7 to 12 litters per group are needed for detecting a statistically significant reduction in birthweight due to prenatal alcohol exposure, even with single pups selected at random from each litter. Alcohol-exposed pups also weighed consistently and significantly less than both the chowfed and pairfed pups, whereas differences between chowfed and pairfed groups were much smaller and inconsistent. The results imply that decreased birthweight is a consistent characteristic of prenatal alcohol exposure.

Agricultural land abandonment due to biophysical and socioeconomic constraints is increasing across Europe. Meanwhile there is also an increase in bioenergy demand. This study assessed woody crop performance on several relevant types of marginal agricultural land in Europe, based on field experiments in Latvia, Spain and Ukraine. In Latvia, hybrid aspen was more productive than birch and alder species, and after eight years produced 4.8 Mg ha−1 y−1 on stony soil with sandy loam texture, when best clone and treatment combination was selected. In Spain, Siberian elm produced up to 7.1 Mg ha−1 y−1 on stony, sandy soil with low organic carbon content after three triennial rotations. In Ukraine, willow plantations produced a maximum of 10.8 Mg ha−1 y−1 on a soil with low soil organic carbon after second triennial rotation. The productivity was higher when management practices were optimized specifically to address the limiting factors of a site. Longer rotations and lower biomass yields compared to high-value land can be expected when woody crops are grown on similar marginal agricultural land shown in this study. Future studies should start here and investigate to what extent woody crops can contribute to rural development under these conditions.

The worldwide historical carbon (C) losses due to Land Use and Land-Use Change between 1870 and 2014 are estimated at 148 Pg C (1 Pg=1billionton). South America is chosen for this study because its soils contain 10.3% (160 Pg C to 1-m depth) of the soil organic carbon stock of the world soils, it is home to 5.7% (0.419 billion people) of the world population, and accounts for 8.6% of the world food (491milliontons) and 21.0% of meat production (355milliontons of cattle and buffalo). The annual C emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in South America represent only 2.5% (0.25 Pg C) of the total global emissions (9.8 Pg C). However, South America contributes 31.3% (0.34 Pg C) of global annual greenhouse gas emissions (1.1 Pg C) through Land Use and Land Use Change. The potential of South America as a terrestrial C sink for mitigating climate change with adoption of Low-Carbon Agriculture (LCA) strategies based on scenario analysis method is 8.24 Pg C between 2016 and 2050. The annual C offset for 2016 to 2020, 2021 to 2035, and 2036 to 2050 is estimated at 0.08, 0.25, and 0.28 Pg C, respectively, equivalent to offsetting 7.5, 22.2 and 25.2% of the global annual greenhouse gas emissions by Land Use and Land Use Change for each period. Emission offset for LCA activities is estimated at 31.0% by restoration of degraded pasturelands, 25.6% by integrated crop-livestock-forestry-systems, 24.3% by no-till cropping systems, 12.8% by planted commercial forest and forestation, 4.2% by biological N fixation and 2.0% by recycling the industrial organic wastes. The ecosystem carbon payback time for historical C losses from South America through LCA strategies may be 56 to 188years, and the adoption of LCA can also increase food and meat production by 615Mton or 17.6Mtonyear-1 and 56Mton or 1.6Mtonyear-1, respectively, between 2016 and 2050.

Access to reliable and affordable energy is vital for sustainable development. In the off-grid areas of developing countries, decentralized energy solutions have received increasing attention due to their contributions to reducing poverty. However, most of the rural population in many developing countries still has little or no access to modern energy technologies. This paper assesses the factors that determine the successes and failures of decentralized energy solutions based on local harmonized case studies from heterogeneous contexts from Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. The case studies were analyzed through the coupled lenses of energy transition and the Water–Energy–Food Security (WEF) Nexus. The findings indicate that access to modern decentralized energy solutions has not resulted in complete energy transitions due to various tradeoffs with the other domains of the WEF Nexus. On the other hand, the case studies point at the potential for improvements in food security, incomes, health, the empowerment of women, and resource conservation when synergies between decentralized energy solutions and other components of the WEF Nexus are present.

SummaryConservation agriculture (CA) practices such as zero tillage (ZT) and permanent raised beds (PB) accelerate deposition of soil organic matter and augment associated biological properties of soil through enhanced inputs of organic carbon. However, the potential benefit of CA under intensive cereal‐based systems for key soil health indicators (such as carbon pools and biological activities) is only partially known. Therefore, we analysed the effect of three medium‐term tillage practices and four intensive crop rotations on selected soil organic carbon pools and microbial properties. The tillage practices consist of ZT, PB and conventional tillage (CT) in main plots and four crop rotations (MWMb, maize–wheat–mungbean; MCS, maize–chickpea–Sesbania; MMuMb, maize–mustard–mungbean; MMS, maize–maize–Sesbania) in subplots. The experimental design was split‐plot with three replications. After 6 years, we observed a significant positive effect of CA practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) content, labile SOC fractions, soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and dehydrogenase activity (DHA). The total organic carbon (TOC) was greatly affected by medium‐term tillage and diversified cropping systems; it was larger for CA and MCS and MWMb systems. The interaction effect between tillage and cropping systems for SOC content was not significant at all soil depths. Significantly larger contributions (8.5–25.5%) of labile SOC pools to TOC at various soil depths were recorded in PB and ZT. There was a significant positive effect of CA practices and diversified crop rotations on MBC and DHA at all the soil depths and sampling times, but the interaction effect between tillage and cropping systems was not significant. Thus, our medium‐term (≥ 5‐years) study showed that the combination of CA (PB and ZT) practices and appropriate choice of rotations (MCS and MWMb) appears to be the most appropriate option for restoration and improvement of the soil health of light‐textured Inceptisols through the accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM) and improvement in soil biological properties.Highlights Effect of conservation agriculture (CA) on soil labile carbon inputs and biological properties. Observed changes in SOC stock and C‐pools at different soil depths after 6 years. Significant effects of tillage and crop rotations observed for labile‐C pools. Adoption of ZT and PB enhanced SOC stock, C‐pools and microbial activity compared to CT.