Iman Mallakpour; Mojtaba Sadegh;Iman Mallakpour
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileIman Mallakpour in OpenAIRE Amir AghaKouchak; Amir AghaKouchak
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAmir AghaKouchak in OpenAIREAbstract Levee systems are an important part of California’s water infrastructure, engineered to provide resilience against flooding and reduce flood losses. The growth in California is partly associated with costly infrastructure developments that led to population expansion in the levee protected areas. Therefore, potential changes in the flood hazard could have significant socioeconomic consequences over levee protected areas, especially in the face of a changing climate. In this study, we examine the possible impacts of a warming climate on flood hazard over levee protected land in California. We use gridded maximum daily runoff from global circulation models (GCMs) that represent a wide range of variability among the climate projections, and are recommended by the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment Report, to investigate possible climate-induced changes. We also quantify the exposure of several critical infrastructure protected by the levee systems (e.g. roads, electric power transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, petroleum pipelines, and railroads) to flooding. Our results provide a detailed picture of change in flood risk for different levees and the potential societal consequences (e.g. exposure of people and critical infrastructure). Levee systems in the northern part of the Central Valley and coastal counties of Southern California are likely to observe the highest increase in flood hazard relative to the past. The most evident change is projected for the northern region of the Central Valley, including Butte, Glenn, Yuba, Sutter, Sacramento, and San Joaquin counties. In the leveed regions of these counties, based on the model simulations of the future, the historical 100-year runoff can potentially increase up to threefold under RCP8.5. We argue that levee operation and maintenance along with emergency preparation plans should take into account the changes in frequencies and intensities of flood hazard in a changing climate to ensure safety of levee systems and their protected infrastructure.
Access RoutesGreen gold 18 citations 18 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% 
Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1088/1748-9326/ab80ed&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu- Iman Mallakpour; Mojtaba Sadegh;
Iman Mallakpour
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileIman Mallakpour in OpenAIRE Amir AghaKouchak; Amir AghaKouchak
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAmir AghaKouchak in OpenAIREAbstract Levee systems are an important part of California’s water infrastructure, engineered to provide resilience against flooding and reduce flood losses. The growth in California is partly associated with costly infrastructure developments that led to population expansion in the levee protected areas. Therefore, potential changes in the flood hazard could have significant socioeconomic consequences over levee protected areas, especially in the face of a changing climate. In this study, we examine the possible impacts of a warming climate on flood hazard over levee protected land in California. We use gridded maximum daily runoff from global circulation models (GCMs) that represent a wide range of variability among the climate projections, and are recommended by the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment Report, to investigate possible climate-induced changes. We also quantify the exposure of several critical infrastructure protected by the levee systems (e.g. roads, electric power transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, petroleum pipelines, and railroads) to flooding. Our results provide a detailed picture of change in flood risk for different levees and the potential societal consequences (e.g. exposure of people and critical infrastructure). Levee systems in the northern part of the Central Valley and coastal counties of Southern California are likely to observe the highest increase in flood hazard relative to the past. The most evident change is projected for the northern region of the Central Valley, including Butte, Glenn, Yuba, Sutter, Sacramento, and San Joaquin counties. In the leveed regions of these counties, based on the model simulations of the future, the historical 100-year runoff can potentially increase up to threefold under RCP8.5. We argue that levee operation and maintenance along with emergency preparation plans should take into account the changes in frequencies and intensities of flood hazard in a changing climate to ensure safety of levee systems and their protected infrastructure.
Access RoutesGreen gold 18 citations 18 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1088/1748-9326/ab80ed&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.renene.2014.10.071&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.renene.2014.10.071&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu- Serikbayeva Akmaral; Boranbayeva Assiya; Abdibattayeva Maral; Nurbayeva Farida; Cherkeshova Salima; Myrzabekova Asem;
Cherkeshova Salima
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileCherkeshova Salima in OpenAIREAbstract In this paper, the prevention of negative technogenic impact on the environment of oil sludge by using it as a secondary resource is considered. Oil sludge from various objects of oil fields in Kazakhstan (Mangystau region) has been studied. The possibilities of using oil (after its separation from oil sludge by bioremidiation) as a partial substitute for bitumen base in the production of modified bitumen are considered. The main physical and mechanical characteristics of modified bitumen are determined. The results confirm that the modified bitumen prepared with oil sludge and oil separated by bioremiation method meets the requirements for polymer-bitumen binder to Kazakhstan standards and is suitable for the production of modified bitumen in its physico-chemical characteristics.
Access Routesgold 1 citations 1 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2478/rtuect-2022-0101&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Serikbayeva Akmaral; Boranbayeva Assiya; Abdibattayeva Maral; Nurbayeva Farida; Cherkeshova Salima; Myrzabekova Asem;
Cherkeshova Salima
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileCherkeshova Salima in OpenAIREAbstract In this paper, the prevention of negative technogenic impact on the environment of oil sludge by using it as a secondary resource is considered. Oil sludge from various objects of oil fields in Kazakhstan (Mangystau region) has been studied. The possibilities of using oil (after its separation from oil sludge by bioremidiation) as a partial substitute for bitumen base in the production of modified bitumen are considered. The main physical and mechanical characteristics of modified bitumen are determined. The results confirm that the modified bitumen prepared with oil sludge and oil separated by bioremiation method meets the requirements for polymer-bitumen binder to Kazakhstan standards and is suitable for the production of modified bitumen in its physico-chemical characteristics.
Access Routesgold 1 citations 1 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2478/rtuect-2022-0101&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Susana Velasco-Lozano;
Susana Velasco-Lozano
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSusana Velasco-Lozano in OpenAIRE Mato Knez; Fernando López-Gallego; Fernando López-Gallego
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFernando López-Gallego in OpenAIRESustainable electricity generation is one of the major current challenges for our society. In this context, the evolution of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies has enabled the fabrication of microscopic devices to produce clean energy from a great variety of renewable sources. To expand the possibilities of energy generation, we have designed and fabricated bioinorganic generators capable to produce electricity by conversion of chemical energy from renewable fuel sources. Unlike traditional generators, the systems described herein produce mechanical energy through enzyme-driven gas production which generates vibration and pressure that are thus converted into electricity by the action of a piezoelectric component properly integrated into the device. Our generators are able to produce an electric ernergy from different renewable sources like glucose, ethanol, and amino acids, attaining energy outputs around 250 nJ cm–2 and reaching maximum open-circuit voltages of up to 1 V. In addition, the produced energy can be easily regulated by adjusting both enzyme and fuel concentration which can tune the electrical output according to the application. The systems described herein propose a new concept for self-sufficient energy harvesting that bridges biocatalysis and piezoelectricity, where the energy production is based on the piezoelectric effect triggered by enzymatic action rather than on the enzyme-driven electron transfer that governs biofuel cells. Although the electric output is too low yet to be considered an alternative for energy production, this technology opens the door to power small devices. We envision the utilization of this technology in such remote locations where mechanical energy is lacking but there are chemical energy reservoirs. We would like to acknowledge Marie-Curie Actions (NANOBIENER project), IKERBASQUE foundation for funding F.L.-G., and the support of COST Action CM1303 Systems Biocatalysis. We also acknowledge HERGAR foundation for the funding. Peer reviewed
Access RoutesGreen add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1021/acsaem.7b00328&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Susana Velasco-Lozano;
Susana Velasco-Lozano
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSusana Velasco-Lozano in OpenAIRE Mato Knez; Fernando López-Gallego; Fernando López-Gallego
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFernando López-Gallego in OpenAIRESustainable electricity generation is one of the major current challenges for our society. In this context, the evolution of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies has enabled the fabrication of microscopic devices to produce clean energy from a great variety of renewable sources. To expand the possibilities of energy generation, we have designed and fabricated bioinorganic generators capable to produce electricity by conversion of chemical energy from renewable fuel sources. Unlike traditional generators, the systems described herein produce mechanical energy through enzyme-driven gas production which generates vibration and pressure that are thus converted into electricity by the action of a piezoelectric component properly integrated into the device. Our generators are able to produce an electric ernergy from different renewable sources like glucose, ethanol, and amino acids, attaining energy outputs around 250 nJ cm–2 and reaching maximum open-circuit voltages of up to 1 V. In addition, the produced energy can be easily regulated by adjusting both enzyme and fuel concentration which can tune the electrical output according to the application. The systems described herein propose a new concept for self-sufficient energy harvesting that bridges biocatalysis and piezoelectricity, where the energy production is based on the piezoelectric effect triggered by enzymatic action rather than on the enzyme-driven electron transfer that governs biofuel cells. Although the electric output is too low yet to be considered an alternative for energy production, this technology opens the door to power small devices. We envision the utilization of this technology in such remote locations where mechanical energy is lacking but there are chemical energy reservoirs. We would like to acknowledge Marie-Curie Actions (NANOBIENER project), IKERBASQUE foundation for funding F.L.-G., and the support of COST Action CM1303 Systems Biocatalysis. We also acknowledge HERGAR foundation for the funding. Peer reviewed
Access RoutesGreen add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1021/acsaem.7b00328&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - UKRI| FATHUM: Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action ,UKRI| SCENARIO. Postgraduate centre in the SCience of the Environment: Natural and Anthropogenic pRocesses, Impacts and OpportunitiesJ. Towner; A. Ficchí; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke; +7 Authors
H. L. Cloke
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileH. L. Cloke in OpenAIREJ. Towner; A. Ficchí; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke;H. L. Cloke
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileH. L. Cloke in OpenAIRE J. Bazo; J. Bazo; E. Coughlan de Perez; E. Coughlan de Perez; E. M. Stephens; E. M. Stephens
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileE. M. Stephens in OpenAIREAbstract. Flooding in the Amazon basin is frequently attributed to modes of large-scale climate variability, but little attention is paid to how these modes influence the timing and duration of floods despite their importance to early warning systems and the significant impacts that these flood characteristics can have on communities. In this study, river discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS 2.1) and observed data at 58 gauging stations are used to examine whether positive or negative phases of several Pacific and Atlantic indices significantly alter the characteristics of river flows throughout the Amazon basin (1979–2015). Results show significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases when the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is positioned in the central tropical Pacific. This response is not identified for the eastern Pacific index, highlighting how the response can differ between ENSO types. Although flood magnitude and duration were found to be highly correlated, the impacts of large-scale climate variability on these characteristics are non-linear; some increases in annual flood maxima coincide with decreases in flood duration. The impact of flood timing, however, does not follow any notable pattern for all indices analysed. Finally, observed and simulated changes are found to be much more highly correlated for negative ENSO phases compared to the positive phase, meaning that GloFAS struggles to accurately simulate the differences in flood characteristics between El Niño and neutral years. These results have important implications for both the social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of early warning action systems for floods.
Access RoutesGreen gold 20 citations 20 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - UKRI| FATHUM: Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action ,UKRI| SCENARIO. Postgraduate centre in the SCience of the Environment: Natural and Anthropogenic pRocesses, Impacts and OpportunitiesJ. Towner; A. Ficchí; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke; +7 Authors
H. L. Cloke
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileH. L. Cloke in OpenAIREJ. Towner; A. Ficchí; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke; H. L. Cloke;H. L. Cloke
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileH. L. Cloke in OpenAIRE J. Bazo; J. Bazo; E. Coughlan de Perez; E. Coughlan de Perez; E. M. Stephens; E. M. Stephens
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileE. M. Stephens in OpenAIREAbstract. Flooding in the Amazon basin is frequently attributed to modes of large-scale climate variability, but little attention is paid to how these modes influence the timing and duration of floods despite their importance to early warning systems and the significant impacts that these flood characteristics can have on communities. In this study, river discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS 2.1) and observed data at 58 gauging stations are used to examine whether positive or negative phases of several Pacific and Atlantic indices significantly alter the characteristics of river flows throughout the Amazon basin (1979–2015). Results show significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases when the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is positioned in the central tropical Pacific. This response is not identified for the eastern Pacific index, highlighting how the response can differ between ENSO types. Although flood magnitude and duration were found to be highly correlated, the impacts of large-scale climate variability on these characteristics are non-linear; some increases in annual flood maxima coincide with decreases in flood duration. The impact of flood timing, however, does not follow any notable pattern for all indices analysed. Finally, observed and simulated changes are found to be much more highly correlated for negative ENSO phases compared to the positive phase, meaning that GloFAS struggles to accurately simulate the differences in flood characteristics between El Niño and neutral years. These results have important implications for both the social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of early warning action systems for floods.
Access RoutesGreen gold 20 citations 20 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Kelly Klima;
Meghan Doherty; Jessica J. Hellmann; Jessica J. Hellmann;Meghan Doherty
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMeghan Doherty in OpenAIREAbstractClimate change poses new and unique challenges that threaten lives and livelihoods. Given the increasing risks and looming uncertainty of climate change, increasing attention has been directed towards adaptation, or the strategies that enable humanity to persist and thrive through climate change the best it can. Though climate change is a global problem often discussed at the national scale, urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for adaptation. The 12 articles in this special issue explore ways of understanding and addressing climate change impacts on urban areas. Together they reveal young but rapidly growing scholarship on how to measure, and then overcome, challenges of climate change. Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) that we must identify and then overcome current barriers to urban adaptation and 2) frameworks/metrics are necessary to identify and track adaptation progress in urban settings. Both of these themes point to the power of indicators and other quantitative information to inform priorities and illuminate the pathway forward for adaptation. As climate change is an entirely new challenge, careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.
Access Routeshybrid 48 citations 48 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.envsci.2016.09.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Kelly Klima; Meghan Doherty; Jessica J. Hellmann; Jessica J. Hellmann;
Meghan Doherty
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMeghan Doherty in OpenAIREAbstractClimate change poses new and unique challenges that threaten lives and livelihoods. Given the increasing risks and looming uncertainty of climate change, increasing attention has been directed towards adaptation, or the strategies that enable humanity to persist and thrive through climate change the best it can. Though climate change is a global problem often discussed at the national scale, urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for adaptation. The 12 articles in this special issue explore ways of understanding and addressing climate change impacts on urban areas. Together they reveal young but rapidly growing scholarship on how to measure, and then overcome, challenges of climate change. Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) that we must identify and then overcome current barriers to urban adaptation and 2) frameworks/metrics are necessary to identify and track adaptation progress in urban settings. Both of these themes point to the power of indicators and other quantitative information to inform priorities and illuminate the pathway forward for adaptation. As climate change is an entirely new challenge, careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.
Access Routeshybrid 48 citations 48 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.envsci.2016.09.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Amit U. Raysoni; Esmeralda Mendez; August Luna; Joe Collins;
Amit U. Raysoni
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAmit U. Raysoni in OpenAIREAggregate and limestone mining in San Antonio’s Bexar and Comal counties in Texas, USA, has caused considerable health concerns as of late. Aggregate mining actions can result in localized air quality issues in any neighborhood. Furthermore, heavy truck traffic, hauling, and transportation of the mined material contribute to pollution. In this research, PM species were sampled at four locations north of the San Antonio city limits. The data were collected using a TSI Air Quality Sampler that sampled PM1, PM2.5, PM4, PM10, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and relative humidity. Continuous data with 1 min averages were recorded during the study period from August to September 2019. The instrument was stationed at every location for a period of 7 days each. The four locations were a ranch, an open field, a residential compound, and an elementary school. PM1 and PM2.5 concentration levels were lower compared to PM10 concentrations at all four studied sites. Our results suggest that PM concentrations are primarily impacted by mining activities. PM species were highest at the residential compound due to its proximity to an active mining area, resulting in deleterious health effects for neighbors living in the vicinity of the sampled site.
Access Routesgold 2 citations 2 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/su14074288&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Amit U. Raysoni; Esmeralda Mendez; August Luna; Joe Collins;
Amit U. Raysoni
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAmit U. Raysoni in OpenAIREAggregate and limestone mining in San Antonio’s Bexar and Comal counties in Texas, USA, has caused considerable health concerns as of late. Aggregate mining actions can result in localized air quality issues in any neighborhood. Furthermore, heavy truck traffic, hauling, and transportation of the mined material contribute to pollution. In this research, PM species were sampled at four locations north of the San Antonio city limits. The data were collected using a TSI Air Quality Sampler that sampled PM1, PM2.5, PM4, PM10, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and relative humidity. Continuous data with 1 min averages were recorded during the study period from August to September 2019. The instrument was stationed at every location for a period of 7 days each. The four locations were a ranch, an open field, a residential compound, and an elementary school. PM1 and PM2.5 concentration levels were lower compared to PM10 concentrations at all four studied sites. Our results suggest that PM concentrations are primarily impacted by mining activities. PM species were highest at the residential compound due to its proximity to an active mining area, resulting in deleterious health effects for neighbors living in the vicinity of the sampled site.
Access Routesgold 2 citations 2 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/su14074288&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| EUCPDominic Matte; Dominic Matte; Tugba Ozturk; Tugba Ozturk; +4 Authors
Tugba Ozturk
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileTugba Ozturk in OpenAIREDominic Matte; Dominic Matte; Tugba Ozturk; Tugba Ozturk; Tugba Ozturk;Tugba Ozturk
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileTugba Ozturk in OpenAIRE Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen;Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJens Hesselbjerg Christensen in OpenAIREAbstractEuropean climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.
Access RoutesGreen gold 9 citations 9 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| EUCPDominic Matte; Dominic Matte; Tugba Ozturk; Tugba Ozturk; +4 Authors
Tugba Ozturk
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileTugba Ozturk in OpenAIREDominic Matte; Dominic Matte; Tugba Ozturk; Tugba Ozturk; Tugba Ozturk;Tugba Ozturk
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileTugba Ozturk in OpenAIRE Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen;Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJens Hesselbjerg Christensen in OpenAIREAbstractEuropean climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.
Access RoutesGreen gold 9 citations 9 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Martha Campbell; John B. Casterline;
John B. Casterline
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJohn B. Casterline in OpenAIRE Federico Castillo; Alisha Graves; +8 AuthorsFederico Castillo
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFederico Castillo in OpenAIREMartha Campbell; John B. Casterline; John B. Casterline
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJohn B. Casterline in OpenAIRE Federico Castillo; Alisha Graves; Thomas L. Hall;Federico Castillo
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFederico Castillo in OpenAIRE John F. May; John F. May
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJohn F. May in OpenAIRE Daniel Perlman; Malcolm Potts; J. Joseph Speidel; Julia Walsh;Daniel Perlman
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesDaniel Perlman in OpenAIRE Michael Wehner; Michael Wehner
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMichael Wehner in OpenAIRE Eliya M. Zulu; Eliya M. Zulu
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesEliya M. Zulu in OpenAIREPour de nombreux pays en développement, les investissements dans la santé ont été un grand succès. The Lancet Commission « Global health 2035 : a world converging within a generation »1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035 : a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013 ; 382: 1898-1955Sommaire Texte intégral PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar et la lettre annuelle 2014 de Gates2 Lettre annuelle 2014 de Gates de Bill et Melinda Gates. 3 mythes qui bloquent le progrès pour les pauvres.http ://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section = homeGoogle Scholar envisage la possibilité d'une « grande convergence » par laquelle plus de pays auront un taux de mortalité infantile aussi bas que 15 pour 1 000 naissances vivantes dans 20 ans. Nous souhaitons attirer l'attention sur le cas particulier des pays les moins avancés, qui, selon les données actuelles, sont susceptibles d'être exclus d'une telle convergence. Pour commencer une discussion, nous nous concentrerons sur le Sahel (la zone semi-aride d'un million de milles carrés de l'Afrique s'étendant de l'Atlantique à la mer Rouge) où le choc de la croissance démographique particulièrement rapide et certains des effets les plus sévères du changement climatique sont susceptibles d'avoir les effets globaux les plus importants sur la santé. Les projections démographiques présentées dans la figure sont la variante moyenne de la Division de la population des Nations Unies. Ces projections pourraient être dépassées à moins qu'une plus grande importance ne soit accordée à la planification familiale. Même en supposant une diminution rapide de la taille des familles par rapport à la moyenne actuelle de 7,6, la population du Niger passera à elle seule de 16 millions aujourd'hui à 58 millions d'ici 2050. Cette augmentation est révélatrice de la formidable dynamique démographique au Sahel. Plus de 40 % de la population a moins de 15 ans. En l'absence de réductions substantielles des émissions de gaz à effet de serre par les pays développés, le Sahel (parce qu'il est déjà si sec) est susceptible de subir certains des pires effets du changement climatique, avec des augmentations de température allant jusqu'à 5-8 ° C d'ici 2100 (figure) .3IPCCSummary for policymakers.in : Stocker TF D Qin G-K Plattner M Climate change 2013 : the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Royaume-Uni2013Google Scholar Les événements météorologiques extrêmes deviendront plus fréquents et l'effet du réchauffement climatique se fera probablement sentir dans de nombreux secteurs, de la santé à l'agriculture. Les maladies à transmission vectorielle sont susceptibles d'augmenter. Le changement climatique pourrait réduire les rendements des cultures en Afrique subsaharienne de 22 % pour le maïs et de 8 % pour le manioc.4Schlenker W Lobell DB Impacts négatifs robustes du changement climatique sur l'agriculture africaine.Environ Res Lett. 2010 ; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar En 2012, l'Université de Californie, Berkeley, CA, États-Unis, et l'Institut africain pour la politique de développement, Nairobi, Kenya, ont organisé une réunion internationale multidisciplinaire sur le Sahel.5Potts M Zulu E Castillo F Henderson C Crisis in the Sahel : possible solutions and the consequences of inaction. University of California, Bixby Center for Population Health and Sustainability, Berkeley2013Google Scholar Bien que reconnaissant la grave menace que représentent la croissance démographique rapide et la désertification dans cette région, la réunion a également identifié des solutions fondées sur des preuves, y compris trois interventions clés. Tout d'abord, les agriculteurs de subsistance et les éleveurs ont besoin d'aide pour s'adapter au changement climatique. L'adaptation nécessitera le développement de cultures résistantes à la sécheresse, des méthodes pour faire face à l'évolution des infestations de ravageurs, un meilleur stockage des cultures et une capture et un stockage plus efficaces de l'eau. Une approche multidisciplinaire et une vision à long terme sont indispensables - actuellement, de nombreuses interventions ne sont pas adoptées tant que des pénuries d'eau visibles ne se produisent pas. Deuxièmement, une plus grande priorité doit être accordée à la planification familiale. Il faut mobiliser la volonté politique pour inciter les donateurs internationaux à investir dans la planification familiale, et les gouvernements sahéliens doivent être plus proactifs. Il existe un besoin non satisfait bien documenté de planification familiale allant de 16 % à 35 % des femmes mariées, calculé avec le STATcompiler des enquêtes démographiques et de santé, mais dans ces sociétés à fécondité élevée, une création accrue de la demande est également cruciale. Là où la planification familiale a été apportée aux femmes dans leurs propres communautés, comme au Bangladesh, l'utilisation de contraceptifs a augmenté rapidement, même chez les femmes pauvres.6Campbell M Prata N Potts M L'impact de la liberté sur le déclin de la fécondité.J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013 ; 39: 44-50Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM The determinants of reproductive change in Bangladesh : success in a challenging environment. The World Bank, Washington, DC1994Google Scholar Task shifting, for example training community volunteers to distribute injectable contraceptives,8Prata N Gessessew A Cartwright A Fraser A Provision of injectable contraceptives in Ethiopia through community-based reproductive health agents.Bull World Health Organ. 2011 ; 89: 556-564Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar et l'accent accru sur la stérilisation chirurgicale, les dispositifs intra-utérins et les implants, ainsi que l'accès à des soins complets en matière d'avortement, sont essentiels. Troisièmement, les donateurs et les gouvernements doivent investir massivement dans l'autonomisation des femmes. Le statut des femmes au Sahel est faible. Le mariage des enfants reste courant, ce qui augmente la probabilité d'une grossesse précoce pour une femme et diminue ses chances de mener une vie autonome. La grossesse chez les adolescentes immatures est une cause majeure de mortalité et de morbidité maternelles, telles que la fistule obstétricale.9Nour NM Conséquences sanitaires du mariage des enfants en Afrique.Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 ; 11: 1644-1649Crossref Scopus (245) Google Scholar La promotion de l'éducation est une stratégie clé pour réduire le mariage des enfants et reporter la première naissance. Les programmes de renforcement des capacités par l'éducation et la microfinance parmi les communautés pastorales ont transformé les femmes illettrées pauvres en leaders qui ont aidé à adapter leurs communautés à la sécheresse.10Coppock DI Desta S Texera S Gerbru G Le renforcement des capacités aide les femmes pastorales à transformer les communautés appauvries en Éthiopie.Science. 2011 ; 334: 1394-1397Crossref PubMed Scopus (40) Google Scholar Dans une société Haoussa polygame du nord-ouest du Nigeria, avec un âge médian de mariage de 14·6 ans et où les parents considéraient généralement les démarches ménagères comme un signe de préparation au mariage, de nombreux parents sont maintenant prêts à retarder le mariage de leurs filles si on leur propose de l'aide pour les frais de scolarité et les livres. Ces trois interventions clés sont considérées comme se renforçant mutuellement. Bien qu'elles impliquent des considérations à long terme, certaines, telles que l'amélioration des pratiques agricoles, ont des retombées immédiates. Les programmes doivent être intégrés de manière à exploiter les effets multiplicateurs intrinsèques. Par exemple, l'éducation des filles facilite l'adoption de la planification familiale et améliore la génération de revenus dans la famille. Une recherche et une évaluation rigoureuses seront essentielles pour constituer la base de données probantes pour ces investissements urgents. Des lacunes importantes dans les données démographiques, agricoles et sanitaires doivent être comblées. Les politiques doivent être conçues de manière à apporter des avantages mesurables et significatifs aux populations les plus vulnérables. Les interventions doivent être développées dans un cadre de droits de l'homme, en veillant à ce que les avantages ne dérivent pas uniquement vers ceux qui ont le plus de capital social et politique. Les pays les moins avancés, tels que ceux du Sahel, reçoivent 0,9 % du revenu national brut des pays industrialisés au titre de l'aide publique au développement, soit beaucoup moins que ce que les donateurs se sont engagés à faire.11 Fonds des Nations Unies pour la populationInstitut démographique interdisciplinaire des Pays-BasBase de données sur les flux de ressources. Population assistance per capital, Afrique subsaharienne, 2009.http ://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar, 12UN Development Programme Bureau for Development PolicyTowards human resilience : sustaining MDG progress in an age of economic uncertainty. Programme des Nations Unies pour le développement, New York, NY, USA2011Google Scholar Pour faire face aux formidables défis auxquels la région est confrontée, l'action doit être immédiate et à grande échelle. Sur la base du modèle de la Commission Lancet, nous suggérons qu'un groupe d'experts du Sahel et d'institutions de recherche ailleurs dans le monde soit convoqué pour explorer et documenter les initiatives intersectorielles et évolutives nécessaires pour éviter que le Sahel (et d'autres régions les moins développées) ne soit totalement exclu de la promesse d'amélioration de la santé et du bien-être prévue dans la Commission Lancet.1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035 : a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013 ; 382: 1898-1955Résumé Texte intégral Texte intégral PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar Nous déclarons que nous n'avons pas d'intérêts concurrents. Para muchos países en desarrollo, las inversiones en salud han demostrado ser un gran éxito. La Comisión Lancet "Salud global 2035: un mundo convergente dentro de una generación" 1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al. Salud global 2035: un mundo convergente dentro de una generación. Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955Resumen Texto completo PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar y la carta anual de Gates de 20142Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation2014 Carta anual de Gates. 3 mitos que bloquean el progreso de los pobres.http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section = homeGoogle Scholar prevé la posibilidad de una "gran convergencia" por la cual más países tendrán una tasa de mortalidad infantil tan baja como 15 por cada 1000 nacidos vivos en 20 años. Deseamos llamar la atención sobre el caso especial de los países menos adelantados, que según las pruebas actuales es probable que queden excluidos de tal convergencia. Para comenzar una discusión, nos centraremos en el Sahel (la zona semiárida de 1 millón de millas cuadradas de África que se extiende desde el Atlántico hasta el Mar Rojo), donde es probable que el choque del crecimiento demográfico excepcionalmente rápido y algunos de los efectos más duros del cambio climático tengan los mayores efectos generales sobre la salud. Las proyecciones de población que se muestran en la figura son la variante media de la División de Población de la ONU. Estas proyecciones podrían superarse a menos que se dé mucho más énfasis a la planificación familiar. Incluso suponiendo una rápida disminución en el tamaño de la familia desde el promedio actual de 7·6, la población de Níger crecerá de los 16 millones actuales a 58 millones para 2050. Este aumento es indicativo del formidable impulso demográfico en el Sahel. Más del 40% de la población es menor de 15 años. En ausencia de recortes sustanciales en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero por parte de las naciones desarrolladas, es probable que el Sahel (porque ya está muy seco) sufra algunos de los peores efectos del cambio climático, con aumentos de temperatura de hasta 5-8 ° C para 2100 (figura) .3IPCCResumen para los responsables de la formulación de políticas.in: Stocker TF D Qin G-K Plattner M Cambio climático 2013: la base de la ciencia física. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Reino Unido2013Google Scholar Los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos serán cada vez más comunes, y es probable que el efecto del calentamiento global se sienta en muchos sectores, desde la salud hasta la agricultura. Es probable que aumenten las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores. El cambio climático podría reducir los rendimientos de los cultivos en África subsahariana en un 22% para el maíz y en un 8% para la yuca.4Schlenker W Lobell DB Fuertes impactos negativos del cambio climático en la agricultura africana.Environ Res Lett. 2010; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar En 2012, la Universidad de California, Berkeley, CA, EE. UU., y el Instituto Africano de Política de Desarrollo, Nairobi, Kenia, organizaron una reunión internacional multidisciplinaria sobre el Sahel.5Potts M Zulu E Castillo F Henderson C Crisis en el Sahel: posibles soluciones y las consecuencias de la inacción. Universidad de California, Bixby Center for Population Health and Sustainability, Berkeley2013Google Scholar Aunque reconocieron la grave amenaza que el rápido crecimiento de la población y la desertificación presentan en esta región, la reunión también identificó soluciones basadas en la evidencia, incluidas tres intervenciones clave. En primer lugar, los agricultores y pastores de subsistencia necesitan ayuda para adaptarse al cambio climático. La adaptación requerirá el desarrollo de cultivos resistentes a la sequía, métodos para abordar los patrones cambiantes de infestaciones de plagas, un mejor almacenamiento de los cultivos y una captura y almacenamiento de agua más eficientes. Un enfoque multidisciplinario y una visión a largo plazo son muy necesarios: actualmente, muchas intervenciones no se adoptan hasta que se produce una escasez visible de agua. En segundo lugar, se debe dar mayor prioridad a la planificación familiar. Se debe reunir la voluntad política para abogar por que los donantes internacionales inviertan en planificación familiar, y los gobiernos del Sahel deben ser más proactivos. Existe una necesidad insatisfecha bien documentada de planificación familiar que oscila entre el 16% y el 35% de las mujeres casadas, calculada con el compilador STAT de encuestas demográficas y de salud, pero en estas sociedades de alta fertilidad también es crucial una mayor creación de demanda. Donde la planificación familiar se ha llevado a las mujeres en sus propias comunidades, como en Bangladesh, el uso de anticonceptivos ha aumentado rápidamente, incluso entre las mujeres empobrecidas.6Campbell M Prata N Potts M El impacto de la libertad en la disminución de la fertilidad.J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013; 39: 44-50Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM Los determinantes del cambio reproductivo en Bangladesh: éxito en un entorno desafiante. El Banco Mundial, Washington, DC1994Google Scholar Task shifting, por ejemplo, capacitar a voluntarios de la comunidad para distribuir anticonceptivos inyectables ,8PrataN Gessessew A Cartwright A Fraser A Provisión de anticonceptivos inyectables en Etiopía a través de agentes de salud reproductiva basados en la comunidad.Bull World Health Organ. 2011; 89: 556-564Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar y un mayor énfasis en la esterilización quirúrgica, los dispositivos intrauterinos y los implantes, junto con el acceso a la atención integral del aborto, son esenciales. En tercer lugar, los donantes y los gobiernos deben invertir fuertemente en el empoderamiento de las mujeres. La situación de las mujeres en el Sahel es baja. El matrimonio infantil sigue siendo común, lo que aumenta la probabilidad de que una mujer tenga un embarazo temprano y disminuye sus posibilidades de llevar una vida autónoma. El embarazo en adolescentes inmaduras es una causa importante de mortalidad y morbilidad materna, como la fístula obstétrica.9Nuestro NM Consecuencias para la salud del matrimonio infantil en África.Emerg Infect Dis. 2006; 11: 1644-1649Crossref Scopus (245) Google Scholar La promoción de la educación es una estrategia clave para reducir el matrimonio infantil y posponer el primer nacimiento. Los programas para desarrollar la capacidad mediante la educación y las microfinanzas entre las comunidades de pastores han convertido a las mujeres analfabetas pobres en líderes que ayudaron a adaptar sus comunidades a la sequía.10Coppock DI desta S texera S Gerbru G El desarrollo de capacidades ayuda a las mujeres de pastores a transformar las comunidades empobrecidas en Etiopía. Ciencia. 2011; 334: 1394-1397Crossref PubMed Scopus (40) Google Scholar En una sociedad hausa polígama en el noroeste de Nigeria, con una edad media de matrimonio de 14·6 años y donde los padres comúnmente veían la menarquia como un signo de preparación para el matrimonio, muchos padres ahora están dispuestos a retrasar los matrimonios de sus hijas si se les ofrece ayuda con las tarifas escolares y los libros. Estas tres intervenciones clave se consideran de apoyo mutuo. Aunque implican consideraciones a largo plazo, algunas, como la mejora de las prácticas agrícolas, tienen beneficios inmediatos. Los programas deben integrarse para aprovechar los efectos multiplicadores intrínsecos. Por ejemplo, educar a las niñas facilita la adopción de la planificación familiar y mejora la generación de ingresos en la familia. La investigación y la evaluación rigurosas serán esenciales para construir la base de evidencia para inversiones tan urgentemente necesarias. Es necesario llenar las lagunas sustanciales en los datos demográficos, agrícolas y de salud. Las políticas deben diseñarse para generar beneficios medibles y significativos para las poblaciones más vulnerables. Las intervenciones deben desarrollarse en un marco de derechos humanos, asegurando que los beneficios no se desvíen solo hacia aquellos con mayor capital social y político. Los países menos desarrollados, como los del Sahel, reciben el 0,9% del ingreso nacional bruto de los países industrializados en asistencia oficial para el desarrollo, mucho menos de lo que los donantes han comprometido.11Fondo de Población de las Naciones UnidasInstituto Demográfico Interdisciplinario de los Países BajosBase de datos de flujos de recursos. Population assistance per capital, África subsahariana, 2009.http://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar, 12UN Development Programme Bureau for Development PolicyTowards human resilience: sustaining MDG progress in a age of economic uncertainty. Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, Nueva York, NY, EE. UU. 2011Google Scholar Para enfrentar los formidables desafíos que enfrenta la región, la acción debe ser inmediata y a gran escala. Sobre la base del modelo de la Comisión Lancet, sugerimos que se convoque a un grupo de expertos del Sahel e instituciones de investigación de otras partes del mundo para explorar y documentar las iniciativas intersectoriales y escalables necesarias para evitar que el Sahel (y otras regiones menos desarrolladas) queden totalmente excluidas de la promesa de mejorar la salud y el bienestar prevista en la Comisión Lancet.1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955 Resumen Texto completo Texto completo PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar Declaramos que no tenemos intereses en competencia. For many developing countries, investments in health have proved a great success. The Lancet Commission "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation"1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar and the 2014 Gates annual letter2Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation2014 Gates annual letter. 3 myths that block progress for the poor.http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=homeGoogle Scholar envision the possibility of a "grand convergence" by which more countries will have a child mortality rate as low as 15 per 1000 livebirths in 20 years time. We wish to draw attention to the special case of the least developed countries, which on present evidence are likely to be excluded from such a convergence. To start a discussion we will focus on the Sahel (the 1 million square-mile semi-arid zone of Africa stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea) where the clash of uniquely rapid population growth and some of the harshest effects of climate change are likely to have the greatest overall effects on health. The population projections shown in the figure are the UN Population Division's medium variant. These projections could be exceeded unless much greater emphasis is given to family planning. Even assuming rapid decreases in family size from the current average of 7·6, the population of Niger alone will grow from 16 million today to 58 million by 2050. This increase is indicative of the formidable population momentum in the Sahel. More than 40% of the population is younger than 15 years. In the absence of substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by developed nations, the Sahel (because it is so dry already) is likely to suffer some of the worst effects of climate change, with temperature increases as high as 5–8°C by 2100 (figure).3IPCCSummary for policymakers.in: Stocker TF D Qin G-K Plattner M Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK2013Google Scholar Extreme weather events will become more common, and the effect of global warming is likely to be felt over many sectors from health to agriculture. Vector-borne diseases are likely to increase. Climate change could reduce crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa by 22% for maize, and 8% for cassava.4Schlenker W Lobell DB Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture.Environ Res Lett. 2010; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar In 2012, the University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA, and the African Institute for Development Policy, Nairobi, Kenya, hosted a multidisciplinary international meeting on the Sahel.5Potts M Zulu E Castillo F Henderson C Crisis in the Sahel: possible solutions and the consequences of inaction. University of California, Bixby Center for Population Health and Sustainability, Berkeley2013Google Scholar Although recognising the serious threat that rapid population growth and desertification present in this region, the meeting also identified evidence-based solutions, including three key interventions. First, subsistence farmers and pastoralists need help to adapt to climate change. Adaptation will require the development of drought-resistant crops, methods to address changing patterns of pest infestations, improved crop storage, and more efficient water capture and storage. A multidisciplinary approach and a long-term vision are much needed—currently many interventions are not adopted until visible water shortages occur. Second, greater priority must be given to family planning. Political will must be garnered to advocate for international donors to invest in family planning, and Sahelian governments need to be more proactive. There is a well documented unmet need for family planning ranging from 16% to 35% of married women, calculated with the Demographic and Health Surveys STATcompiler, but in such high-fertility societies increased demand creation is also crucial. Where family planning has been brought to women in their own communities, as in Bangladesh, contraceptive use has increased rapidly, even among impoverished women.6Campbell M Prata N Potts M The impact of freedom on fertility decline.J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013; 39: 44-50Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM The determinants of reproductive change in Bangladesh: success in a challenging environment. The World Bank, Washington, DC1994Google Scholar Task shifting, for example training community volunteers to distribute injectable contraceptives,8Prata N Gessessew A Cartwright A Fraser A Provision of injectable contraceptives in Ethiopia through community-based reproductive health agents.Bull World Health Organ. 2011; 89: 556-564Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar and increased emphasis on surgical sterilisation, intrauterine devices, and implants, together with access to comprehensive abortion care, are essential. Third, donors and governments need to invest heavily in women's empowerment. The status of women in the Sahel is low. Child marriage remains common, increasing a woman's likelihood of early pregnancy, and decreasing her chances of leading an autonomous life. Pregnancy in immature teenage girls is a major cause of maternal mortality and morbidity, such as obstetric fistula.9Nour NM Health consequences of child marriage in Africa.Emerg Infect Dis. 2006; 11: 1644-1649Crossref Scopus (245) Google Scholar Promotion of education is a key strategy to reduce child marriage and postpone the first birth. Programmes to build capacity by education and microfinance among pastoral communities have turned poor illiterate women into leaders who helped adapt their communities to drought.10Coppock DI Desta S Texera S Gerbru G Capacity building helps pastoral women transform impoverished communities in Ethiopia.Science. 2011; 334: 1394-1397Crossref PubMed Scopus (40) Google Scholar In a polygamous Hausa society in northwest Nigeria, with a median age of marriage of 14·6 years and where parents commonly viewed menarche as a sign of readiness for marriage, many parents are now willing to delay their daughters' marriages if offered help with school fees and books. These three key interventions are regarded as mutually supportive. Although they involve long-term considerations, some, such as improved agricultural practices, have immediate payoffs. Programmes need to be integrated so as to exploit intrinsic multiplier effects. For example, educating girls facilitates the adoption of family planning and enhances income generation in the family. Rigorous research and assessment will be essential to build the evidence base for such urgently needed investments. Substantial gaps in demographic, agricultural, and health data need to be filled. Policies need to be designed to result in measurable, meaningful benefit to the most vulnerable populations. Interventions must be developed in a human rights framework, ensuring that the benefits do not drift only toward those with the most social and political capital. Least developed countries, such as those in the Sahel, receive 0·09% of gross national income of industrialised countries in official development assistance—far less than what donors have committed.11UN Population FundNetherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic InstituteResource Flows database. Population assistance per capital, sub-Saharan Africa, 2009.http://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar, 12UN Development Programme Bureau for Development PolicyTowards human resilience: sustaining MDG progress in an age of economic uncertainty. UN Development Programme, New York, NY, USA2011Google Scholar To confront the formidable challenges facing the region, action must be immediate and large scale. On the basis of the model of the Lancet Commission, we suggest that a group of experts from the Sahel and research institutions elsewhere in the world should be convened to explore and document the cross-sectoral, scalable initiatives needed to avoid the Sahel (and other least developed regions) being totally excluded from the promise of improved health and welfare foreseen in the Lancet Commission.1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar We declare that we have no competing interests. بالنسبة للعديد من البلدان النامية، أثبتت الاستثمارات في الصحة نجاحًا كبيرًا. لجنة لانسيت "الصحة العالمية 2035: عالم يتقارب في غضون جيل" 1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al. الصحة العالمية 2035: عالم يتقارب في غضون جيل. 2013 ؛ 382: 1898-1955 ملخص النص الكامل PDF PubMed Scopus (804) الباحث العلمي من Google والرسالة السنوية 2014 Gates2Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation2014 Gates annual letter. 3 myths that block progress for the poor.http:// annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=homeGoogle Scholar تصور إمكانية "التقارب الكبير" الذي من خلاله سيكون لدى المزيد من البلدان معدل وفيات الأطفال منخفضًا يصل إلى 15 لكل 1000 مولود حي في غضون 20 عامًا. نود أن نسترعي الانتباه إلى الحالة الخاصة لأقل البلدان نمواً، والتي من المرجح أن يتم استبعادها من هذا التقارب بناءً على الأدلة الحالية. لبدء مناقشة، سنركز على منطقة الساحل (المنطقة شبه القاحلة التي تبلغ مساحتها مليون ميل مربع في إفريقيا وتمتد من المحيط الأطلسي إلى البحر الأحمر) حيث من المرجح أن يكون لصدام النمو السكاني السريع بشكل فريد وبعض من أقسى آثار تغير المناخ أكبر الآثار الشاملة على الصحة. التوقعات السكانية الموضحة في الشكل هي المتغير المتوسط لشعبة السكان بالأمم المتحدة. يمكن تجاوز هذه التوقعات ما لم يتم التركيز بشكل أكبر على تنظيم الأسرة. حتى بافتراض الانخفاض السريع في حجم الأسرة من المتوسط الحالي البالغ 7.6، فإن عدد سكان النيجر وحده سينمو من 16 مليونًا اليوم إلى 58 مليونًا بحلول عام 2050. وتشير هذه الزيادة إلى الزخم السكاني الهائل في منطقة الساحل. أكثر من 40 ٪ من السكان تقل أعمارهم عن 15 عامًا. في غياب تخفيضات كبيرة في انبعاثات غازات الدفيئة من قبل الدول المتقدمة، من المرجح أن تعاني منطقة الساحل (لأنها جافة بالفعل) من بعض أسوأ آثار تغير المناخ، مع ارتفاع درجات الحرارة إلى 5-8 درجات مئوية بحلول عام 2100 (الشكل) .3 IPCCSummary for policymakers.in: Stocker TF D Qin G - K Plattner M Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. مطبعة جامعة كامبريدج، كامبريدج، المملكة المتحدة 2013 ستصبح أحداث الطقس المتطرفة لباحث جوجل أكثر شيوعًا، ومن المرجح أن يكون تأثير الاحترار العالمي ملموسًا في العديد من القطاعات من الصحة إلى الزراعة. من المرجح أن تزداد الأمراض المنقولة بالنواقل. يمكن لتغير المناخ أن يقلل من غلة المحاصيل في أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى بنسبة 22 ٪ للذرة، و 8 ٪ للكسافا .4 Schlenker W Lobell DB تأثيرات سلبية قوية لتغير المناخ على الزراعة الأفريقية. Environ Res Lett. 2010; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar في عام 2012، استضافت جامعة كاليفورنيا، بيركلي، كاليفورنيا، الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، والمعهد الأفريقي لسياسة التنمية، نيروبي، كينيا، اجتماعًا دوليًا متعدد التخصصات حول أزمة الساحل 5 بوتس إم زولو إي كاستيلو إف هندرسون سي في الساحل: الحلول الممكنة وعواقب التقاعس عن العمل. جامعة كاليفورنيا، مركز بيكسبي لصحة السكان والاستدامة، بيركلي 2013 الباحث العلمي من Google على الرغم من إدراك التهديد الخطير الذي يمثله النمو السكاني السريع والتصحر في هذه المنطقة، فقد حدد الاجتماع أيضًا حلولًا قائمة على الأدلة، بما في ذلك ثلاثة تدخلات رئيسية. أولاً، يحتاج مزارعو الكفاف والرعاة إلى المساعدة للتكيف مع تغير المناخ. سيتطلب التكيف تطوير محاصيل مقاومة للجفاف، وطرقًا لمعالجة الأنماط المتغيرة لتفشي الآفات، وتحسين تخزين المحاصيل، وجمع المياه وتخزينها بشكل أكثر كفاءة. هناك حاجة ماسة إلى نهج متعدد التخصصات ورؤية طويلة الأجل - في الوقت الحالي لا يتم اعتماد العديد من التدخلات حتى يحدث نقص واضح في المياه. ثانياً، يجب إعطاء أولوية أكبر لتنظيم الأسرة. يجب حشد الإرادة السياسية لمناصرة المانحين الدوليين للاستثمار في تنظيم الأسرة، ويجب أن تكون حكومات منطقة الساحل أكثر استباقية. هناك حاجة موثقة جيدًا غير ملباة لتنظيم الأسرة تتراوح بين 16 ٪ إلى 35 ٪ من النساء المتزوجات، محسوبة باستخدام برنامج تجميع الاستقصاءات الديموغرافية والصحية، ولكن في مثل هذه المجتمعات ذات الخصوبة العالية، يعد زيادة خلق الطلب أمرًا بالغ الأهمية أيضًا. حيث تم جلب تنظيم الأسرة للنساء في مجتمعاتهن المحلية، كما هو الحال في بنغلاديش، زاد استخدام وسائل منع الحمل بسرعة، حتى بين النساء الفقيرات .6 Campbell M Prata N Potts M تأثير الحرية على انخفاض الخصوبة .J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013 ؛ 39: 44-50 Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) الباحث العلمي من Google، 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM محددات التغيير الإنجابي في بنغلاديش: النجاح في بيئة صعبة. البنك الدولي، واشنطن، DC1994 تغيير مهام الباحث العلمي من Google، على سبيل المثال تدريب المتطوعين المجتمعيين على توزيع وسائل منع الحمل القابلة للحقن، 8 براتا إن جيسو إيه كارترايت إيه فريزر توفير وسائل منع الحمل القابلة للحقن في إثيوبيا من خلال وكلاء الصحة الإنجابية المجتمعية. منظمة الصحة العالمية. 2011 ؛ 89: 556-564 Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar وزيادة التركيز على التعقيم الجراحي والأجهزة داخل الرحم والغرسات، إلى جانب الوصول إلى الرعاية الشاملة للإجهاض، أمر ضروري. ثالثًا، تحتاج الجهات المانحة والحكومات إلى الاستثمار بكثافة في تمكين المرأة. وضع المرأة في منطقة الساحل منخفض. لا يزال زواج الأطفال شائعًا، مما يزيد من احتمال الحمل المبكر للمرأة، ويقلل من فرصها في العيش حياة مستقلة. يعد الحمل لدى الفتيات المراهقات غير الناضجات سببًا رئيسيًا لوفيات الأمهات واعتلالهن، مثل ناسور الولادة .9 ولا عواقب صحية لزواج الأطفال في أفريقيا .العدوى الطارئة. 2006 ؛ 11: 1644-1649 Crossref Scopus (245) يعد ترويج الباحث العلمي من Google للتعليم استراتيجية رئيسية للحد من زواج الأطفال وتأجيل الولادة الأولى. أدت برامج بناء القدرات من خلال التعليم والتمويل الأصغر بين المجتمعات الرعوية إلى تحويل النساء الأميات الفقيرات إلى قادة ساعدوا في تكييف مجتمعاتهن مع الجفاف .10 يساعد بناء القدرات النساء الرعويات على تحويل المجتمعات الفقيرة في إثيوبيا .العلوم. 2011 ؛ 334: 1394-1397 كروسريف بوبد سكوبس (40) الباحث العلمي من غوغل في مجتمع هوسا متعدد الزوجات في شمال غرب نيجيريا، بمتوسط عمر زواج يبلغ 14·6 سنوات وحيث ينظر الآباء عادة إلى الحيض على أنه علامة على الاستعداد للزواج، فإن العديد من الآباء على استعداد الآن لتأخير زواج بناتهم إذا عرضت عليهم المساعدة في الرسوم المدرسية والكتب. تعتبر هذه التدخلات الرئيسية الثلاثة داعمة لبعضها البعض. على الرغم من أنها تنطوي على اعتبارات طويلة الأجل، إلا أن بعضها، مثل الممارسات الزراعية المحسنة، يحصل على مكافآت فورية. يجب دمج البرامج من أجل استغلال التأثيرات المضاعفة الجوهرية. على سبيل المثال، يسهل تعليم الفتيات اعتماد تنظيم الأسرة ويعزز توليد الدخل في الأسرة. سيكون البحث والتقييم الدقيقان ضروريين لبناء قاعدة الأدلة لمثل هذه الاستثمارات المطلوبة بشكل عاجل. يجب سد الثغرات الكبيرة في البيانات الديموغرافية والزراعية والصحية. يجب تصميم السياسات بحيث تؤدي إلى فائدة قابلة للقياس وذات مغزى للفئات السكانية الأكثر ضعفاً. يجب تطوير التدخلات في إطار حقوق الإنسان، مع ضمان عدم انحراف الفوائد فقط نحو أولئك الذين لديهم أكبر قدر من رأس المال الاجتماعي والسياسي. تتلقى أقل البلدان نمواً، مثل تلك الموجودة في منطقة الساحل، 0·09 ٪ من الدخل القومي الإجمالي للبلدان الصناعية في المساعدة الإنمائية الرسمية - أقل بكثير مما التزم به المانحون .11 صندوق الأمم المتحدة للسكانالمعهد الديمغرافي الهولندي متعدد التخصصاتقاعدة بيانات تدفقات الموارد. المساعدة السكانية لكل رأس مال، أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى، 2009.http://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar، 12 مكتب برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي للسياسات الإنمائية نحو المرونة البشرية: الحفاظ على التقدم المحرز في الأهداف الإنمائية للألفية في عصر عدم اليقين الاقتصادي. برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي، نيويورك، نيويورك، الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية2011 الباحث العلمي من Google لمواجهة التحديات الهائلة التي تواجه المنطقة، يجب أن يكون العمل فوريًا وعلى نطاق واسع. على أساس نموذج لجنة لانسيت، نقترح عقد اجتماع لمجموعة من الخبراء من منطقة الساحل والمؤسسات البحثية في أماكن أخرى من العالم لاستكشاف وتوثيق المبادرات الشاملة لعدة قطاعات والقابلة للتطوير اللازمة لتجنب استبعاد منطقة الساحل (وغيرها من المناطق الأقل نمواً) تمامًا من الوعد بتحسين الصحة والرفاهية المتوقع في لجنة لانسيت. 1 جيمسون دي تي سمرز إل إتش ألين جي وآخرون. الصحة العالمية 2035: عالم يتقارب في غضون جيل. لانسيت. 2013 ؛ 382: 1898-1955 ملخص النص الكامل PDF PubMed Scopus (804) الباحث العلمي من Google نعلن أنه ليس لدينا مصالح متنافسة.
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Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesEliya M. Zulu in OpenAIREPour de nombreux pays en développement, les investissements dans la santé ont été un grand succès. The Lancet Commission « Global health 2035 : a world converging within a generation »1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035 : a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013 ; 382: 1898-1955Sommaire Texte intégral PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar et la lettre annuelle 2014 de Gates2 Lettre annuelle 2014 de Gates de Bill et Melinda Gates. 3 mythes qui bloquent le progrès pour les pauvres.http ://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section = homeGoogle Scholar envisage la possibilité d'une « grande convergence » par laquelle plus de pays auront un taux de mortalité infantile aussi bas que 15 pour 1 000 naissances vivantes dans 20 ans. Nous souhaitons attirer l'attention sur le cas particulier des pays les moins avancés, qui, selon les données actuelles, sont susceptibles d'être exclus d'une telle convergence. Pour commencer une discussion, nous nous concentrerons sur le Sahel (la zone semi-aride d'un million de milles carrés de l'Afrique s'étendant de l'Atlantique à la mer Rouge) où le choc de la croissance démographique particulièrement rapide et certains des effets les plus sévères du changement climatique sont susceptibles d'avoir les effets globaux les plus importants sur la santé. Les projections démographiques présentées dans la figure sont la variante moyenne de la Division de la population des Nations Unies. Ces projections pourraient être dépassées à moins qu'une plus grande importance ne soit accordée à la planification familiale. Même en supposant une diminution rapide de la taille des familles par rapport à la moyenne actuelle de 7,6, la population du Niger passera à elle seule de 16 millions aujourd'hui à 58 millions d'ici 2050. Cette augmentation est révélatrice de la formidable dynamique démographique au Sahel. Plus de 40 % de la population a moins de 15 ans. En l'absence de réductions substantielles des émissions de gaz à effet de serre par les pays développés, le Sahel (parce qu'il est déjà si sec) est susceptible de subir certains des pires effets du changement climatique, avec des augmentations de température allant jusqu'à 5-8 ° C d'ici 2100 (figure) .3IPCCSummary for policymakers.in : Stocker TF D Qin G-K Plattner M Climate change 2013 : the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Royaume-Uni2013Google Scholar Les événements météorologiques extrêmes deviendront plus fréquents et l'effet du réchauffement climatique se fera probablement sentir dans de nombreux secteurs, de la santé à l'agriculture. Les maladies à transmission vectorielle sont susceptibles d'augmenter. Le changement climatique pourrait réduire les rendements des cultures en Afrique subsaharienne de 22 % pour le maïs et de 8 % pour le manioc.4Schlenker W Lobell DB Impacts négatifs robustes du changement climatique sur l'agriculture africaine.Environ Res Lett. 2010 ; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar En 2012, l'Université de Californie, Berkeley, CA, États-Unis, et l'Institut africain pour la politique de développement, Nairobi, Kenya, ont organisé une réunion internationale multidisciplinaire sur le Sahel.5Potts M Zulu E Castillo F Henderson C Crisis in the Sahel : possible solutions and the consequences of inaction. University of California, Bixby Center for Population Health and Sustainability, Berkeley2013Google Scholar Bien que reconnaissant la grave menace que représentent la croissance démographique rapide et la désertification dans cette région, la réunion a également identifié des solutions fondées sur des preuves, y compris trois interventions clés. Tout d'abord, les agriculteurs de subsistance et les éleveurs ont besoin d'aide pour s'adapter au changement climatique. L'adaptation nécessitera le développement de cultures résistantes à la sécheresse, des méthodes pour faire face à l'évolution des infestations de ravageurs, un meilleur stockage des cultures et une capture et un stockage plus efficaces de l'eau. Une approche multidisciplinaire et une vision à long terme sont indispensables - actuellement, de nombreuses interventions ne sont pas adoptées tant que des pénuries d'eau visibles ne se produisent pas. Deuxièmement, une plus grande priorité doit être accordée à la planification familiale. Il faut mobiliser la volonté politique pour inciter les donateurs internationaux à investir dans la planification familiale, et les gouvernements sahéliens doivent être plus proactifs. Il existe un besoin non satisfait bien documenté de planification familiale allant de 16 % à 35 % des femmes mariées, calculé avec le STATcompiler des enquêtes démographiques et de santé, mais dans ces sociétés à fécondité élevée, une création accrue de la demande est également cruciale. Là où la planification familiale a été apportée aux femmes dans leurs propres communautés, comme au Bangladesh, l'utilisation de contraceptifs a augmenté rapidement, même chez les femmes pauvres.6Campbell M Prata N Potts M L'impact de la liberté sur le déclin de la fécondité.J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013 ; 39: 44-50Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM The determinants of reproductive change in Bangladesh : success in a challenging environment. The World Bank, Washington, DC1994Google Scholar Task shifting, for example training community volunteers to distribute injectable contraceptives,8Prata N Gessessew A Cartwright A Fraser A Provision of injectable contraceptives in Ethiopia through community-based reproductive health agents.Bull World Health Organ. 2011 ; 89: 556-564Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar et l'accent accru sur la stérilisation chirurgicale, les dispositifs intra-utérins et les implants, ainsi que l'accès à des soins complets en matière d'avortement, sont essentiels. Troisièmement, les donateurs et les gouvernements doivent investir massivement dans l'autonomisation des femmes. Le statut des femmes au Sahel est faible. Le mariage des enfants reste courant, ce qui augmente la probabilité d'une grossesse précoce pour une femme et diminue ses chances de mener une vie autonome. La grossesse chez les adolescentes immatures est une cause majeure de mortalité et de morbidité maternelles, telles que la fistule obstétricale.9Nour NM Conséquences sanitaires du mariage des enfants en Afrique.Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 ; 11: 1644-1649Crossref Scopus (245) Google Scholar La promotion de l'éducation est une stratégie clé pour réduire le mariage des enfants et reporter la première naissance. Les programmes de renforcement des capacités par l'éducation et la microfinance parmi les communautés pastorales ont transformé les femmes illettrées pauvres en leaders qui ont aidé à adapter leurs communautés à la sécheresse.10Coppock DI Desta S Texera S Gerbru G Le renforcement des capacités aide les femmes pastorales à transformer les communautés appauvries en Éthiopie.Science. 2011 ; 334: 1394-1397Crossref PubMed Scopus (40) Google Scholar Dans une société Haoussa polygame du nord-ouest du Nigeria, avec un âge médian de mariage de 14·6 ans et où les parents considéraient généralement les démarches ménagères comme un signe de préparation au mariage, de nombreux parents sont maintenant prêts à retarder le mariage de leurs filles si on leur propose de l'aide pour les frais de scolarité et les livres. Ces trois interventions clés sont considérées comme se renforçant mutuellement. Bien qu'elles impliquent des considérations à long terme, certaines, telles que l'amélioration des pratiques agricoles, ont des retombées immédiates. Les programmes doivent être intégrés de manière à exploiter les effets multiplicateurs intrinsèques. Par exemple, l'éducation des filles facilite l'adoption de la planification familiale et améliore la génération de revenus dans la famille. Une recherche et une évaluation rigoureuses seront essentielles pour constituer la base de données probantes pour ces investissements urgents. Des lacunes importantes dans les données démographiques, agricoles et sanitaires doivent être comblées. Les politiques doivent être conçues de manière à apporter des avantages mesurables et significatifs aux populations les plus vulnérables. Les interventions doivent être développées dans un cadre de droits de l'homme, en veillant à ce que les avantages ne dérivent pas uniquement vers ceux qui ont le plus de capital social et politique. Les pays les moins avancés, tels que ceux du Sahel, reçoivent 0,9 % du revenu national brut des pays industrialisés au titre de l'aide publique au développement, soit beaucoup moins que ce que les donateurs se sont engagés à faire.11 Fonds des Nations Unies pour la populationInstitut démographique interdisciplinaire des Pays-BasBase de données sur les flux de ressources. Population assistance per capital, Afrique subsaharienne, 2009.http ://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar, 12UN Development Programme Bureau for Development PolicyTowards human resilience : sustaining MDG progress in an age of economic uncertainty. Programme des Nations Unies pour le développement, New York, NY, USA2011Google Scholar Pour faire face aux formidables défis auxquels la région est confrontée, l'action doit être immédiate et à grande échelle. Sur la base du modèle de la Commission Lancet, nous suggérons qu'un groupe d'experts du Sahel et d'institutions de recherche ailleurs dans le monde soit convoqué pour explorer et documenter les initiatives intersectorielles et évolutives nécessaires pour éviter que le Sahel (et d'autres régions les moins développées) ne soit totalement exclu de la promesse d'amélioration de la santé et du bien-être prévue dans la Commission Lancet.1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035 : a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013 ; 382: 1898-1955Résumé Texte intégral Texte intégral PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar Nous déclarons que nous n'avons pas d'intérêts concurrents. Para muchos países en desarrollo, las inversiones en salud han demostrado ser un gran éxito. La Comisión Lancet "Salud global 2035: un mundo convergente dentro de una generación" 1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al. Salud global 2035: un mundo convergente dentro de una generación. Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955Resumen Texto completo PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar y la carta anual de Gates de 20142Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation2014 Carta anual de Gates. 3 mitos que bloquean el progreso de los pobres.http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section = homeGoogle Scholar prevé la posibilidad de una "gran convergencia" por la cual más países tendrán una tasa de mortalidad infantil tan baja como 15 por cada 1000 nacidos vivos en 20 años. Deseamos llamar la atención sobre el caso especial de los países menos adelantados, que según las pruebas actuales es probable que queden excluidos de tal convergencia. Para comenzar una discusión, nos centraremos en el Sahel (la zona semiárida de 1 millón de millas cuadradas de África que se extiende desde el Atlántico hasta el Mar Rojo), donde es probable que el choque del crecimiento demográfico excepcionalmente rápido y algunos de los efectos más duros del cambio climático tengan los mayores efectos generales sobre la salud. Las proyecciones de población que se muestran en la figura son la variante media de la División de Población de la ONU. Estas proyecciones podrían superarse a menos que se dé mucho más énfasis a la planificación familiar. Incluso suponiendo una rápida disminución en el tamaño de la familia desde el promedio actual de 7·6, la población de Níger crecerá de los 16 millones actuales a 58 millones para 2050. Este aumento es indicativo del formidable impulso demográfico en el Sahel. Más del 40% de la población es menor de 15 años. En ausencia de recortes sustanciales en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero por parte de las naciones desarrolladas, es probable que el Sahel (porque ya está muy seco) sufra algunos de los peores efectos del cambio climático, con aumentos de temperatura de hasta 5-8 ° C para 2100 (figura) .3IPCCResumen para los responsables de la formulación de políticas.in: Stocker TF D Qin G-K Plattner M Cambio climático 2013: la base de la ciencia física. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Reino Unido2013Google Scholar Los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos serán cada vez más comunes, y es probable que el efecto del calentamiento global se sienta en muchos sectores, desde la salud hasta la agricultura. Es probable que aumenten las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores. El cambio climático podría reducir los rendimientos de los cultivos en África subsahariana en un 22% para el maíz y en un 8% para la yuca.4Schlenker W Lobell DB Fuertes impactos negativos del cambio climático en la agricultura africana.Environ Res Lett. 2010; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar En 2012, la Universidad de California, Berkeley, CA, EE. UU., y el Instituto Africano de Política de Desarrollo, Nairobi, Kenia, organizaron una reunión internacional multidisciplinaria sobre el Sahel.5Potts M Zulu E Castillo F Henderson C Crisis en el Sahel: posibles soluciones y las consecuencias de la inacción. Universidad de California, Bixby Center for Population Health and Sustainability, Berkeley2013Google Scholar Aunque reconocieron la grave amenaza que el rápido crecimiento de la población y la desertificación presentan en esta región, la reunión también identificó soluciones basadas en la evidencia, incluidas tres intervenciones clave. En primer lugar, los agricultores y pastores de subsistencia necesitan ayuda para adaptarse al cambio climático. La adaptación requerirá el desarrollo de cultivos resistentes a la sequía, métodos para abordar los patrones cambiantes de infestaciones de plagas, un mejor almacenamiento de los cultivos y una captura y almacenamiento de agua más eficientes. Un enfoque multidisciplinario y una visión a largo plazo son muy necesarios: actualmente, muchas intervenciones no se adoptan hasta que se produce una escasez visible de agua. En segundo lugar, se debe dar mayor prioridad a la planificación familiar. Se debe reunir la voluntad política para abogar por que los donantes internacionales inviertan en planificación familiar, y los gobiernos del Sahel deben ser más proactivos. Existe una necesidad insatisfecha bien documentada de planificación familiar que oscila entre el 16% y el 35% de las mujeres casadas, calculada con el compilador STAT de encuestas demográficas y de salud, pero en estas sociedades de alta fertilidad también es crucial una mayor creación de demanda. Donde la planificación familiar se ha llevado a las mujeres en sus propias comunidades, como en Bangladesh, el uso de anticonceptivos ha aumentado rápidamente, incluso entre las mujeres empobrecidas.6Campbell M Prata N Potts M El impacto de la libertad en la disminución de la fertilidad.J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013; 39: 44-50Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM Los determinantes del cambio reproductivo en Bangladesh: éxito en un entorno desafiante. El Banco Mundial, Washington, DC1994Google Scholar Task shifting, por ejemplo, capacitar a voluntarios de la comunidad para distribuir anticonceptivos inyectables ,8PrataN Gessessew A Cartwright A Fraser A Provisión de anticonceptivos inyectables en Etiopía a través de agentes de salud reproductiva basados en la comunidad.Bull World Health Organ. 2011; 89: 556-564Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar y un mayor énfasis en la esterilización quirúrgica, los dispositivos intrauterinos y los implantes, junto con el acceso a la atención integral del aborto, son esenciales. En tercer lugar, los donantes y los gobiernos deben invertir fuertemente en el empoderamiento de las mujeres. La situación de las mujeres en el Sahel es baja. El matrimonio infantil sigue siendo común, lo que aumenta la probabilidad de que una mujer tenga un embarazo temprano y disminuye sus posibilidades de llevar una vida autónoma. El embarazo en adolescentes inmaduras es una causa importante de mortalidad y morbilidad materna, como la fístula obstétrica.9Nuestro NM Consecuencias para la salud del matrimonio infantil en África.Emerg Infect Dis. 2006; 11: 1644-1649Crossref Scopus (245) Google Scholar La promoción de la educación es una estrategia clave para reducir el matrimonio infantil y posponer el primer nacimiento. Los programas para desarrollar la capacidad mediante la educación y las microfinanzas entre las comunidades de pastores han convertido a las mujeres analfabetas pobres en líderes que ayudaron a adaptar sus comunidades a la sequía.10Coppock DI desta S texera S Gerbru G El desarrollo de capacidades ayuda a las mujeres de pastores a transformar las comunidades empobrecidas en Etiopía. Ciencia. 2011; 334: 1394-1397Crossref PubMed Scopus (40) Google Scholar En una sociedad hausa polígama en el noroeste de Nigeria, con una edad media de matrimonio de 14·6 años y donde los padres comúnmente veían la menarquia como un signo de preparación para el matrimonio, muchos padres ahora están dispuestos a retrasar los matrimonios de sus hijas si se les ofrece ayuda con las tarifas escolares y los libros. Estas tres intervenciones clave se consideran de apoyo mutuo. Aunque implican consideraciones a largo plazo, algunas, como la mejora de las prácticas agrícolas, tienen beneficios inmediatos. Los programas deben integrarse para aprovechar los efectos multiplicadores intrínsecos. Por ejemplo, educar a las niñas facilita la adopción de la planificación familiar y mejora la generación de ingresos en la familia. La investigación y la evaluación rigurosas serán esenciales para construir la base de evidencia para inversiones tan urgentemente necesarias. Es necesario llenar las lagunas sustanciales en los datos demográficos, agrícolas y de salud. Las políticas deben diseñarse para generar beneficios medibles y significativos para las poblaciones más vulnerables. Las intervenciones deben desarrollarse en un marco de derechos humanos, asegurando que los beneficios no se desvíen solo hacia aquellos con mayor capital social y político. Los países menos desarrollados, como los del Sahel, reciben el 0,9% del ingreso nacional bruto de los países industrializados en asistencia oficial para el desarrollo, mucho menos de lo que los donantes han comprometido.11Fondo de Población de las Naciones UnidasInstituto Demográfico Interdisciplinario de los Países BajosBase de datos de flujos de recursos. Population assistance per capital, África subsahariana, 2009.http://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar, 12UN Development Programme Bureau for Development PolicyTowards human resilience: sustaining MDG progress in a age of economic uncertainty. Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, Nueva York, NY, EE. UU. 2011Google Scholar Para enfrentar los formidables desafíos que enfrenta la región, la acción debe ser inmediata y a gran escala. Sobre la base del modelo de la Comisión Lancet, sugerimos que se convoque a un grupo de expertos del Sahel e instituciones de investigación de otras partes del mundo para explorar y documentar las iniciativas intersectoriales y escalables necesarias para evitar que el Sahel (y otras regiones menos desarrolladas) queden totalmente excluidas de la promesa de mejorar la salud y el bienestar prevista en la Comisión Lancet.1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955 Resumen Texto completo Texto completo PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar Declaramos que no tenemos intereses en competencia. For many developing countries, investments in health have proved a great success. The Lancet Commission "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation"1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar and the 2014 Gates annual letter2Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation2014 Gates annual letter. 3 myths that block progress for the poor.http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=homeGoogle Scholar envision the possibility of a "grand convergence" by which more countries will have a child mortality rate as low as 15 per 1000 livebirths in 20 years time. We wish to draw attention to the special case of the least developed countries, which on present evidence are likely to be excluded from such a convergence. To start a discussion we will focus on the Sahel (the 1 million square-mile semi-arid zone of Africa stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea) where the clash of uniquely rapid population growth and some of the harshest effects of climate change are likely to have the greatest overall effects on health. The population projections shown in the figure are the UN Population Division's medium variant. These projections could be exceeded unless much greater emphasis is given to family planning. Even assuming rapid decreases in family size from the current average of 7·6, the population of Niger alone will grow from 16 million today to 58 million by 2050. This increase is indicative of the formidable population momentum in the Sahel. More than 40% of the population is younger than 15 years. In the absence of substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by developed nations, the Sahel (because it is so dry already) is likely to suffer some of the worst effects of climate change, with temperature increases as high as 5–8°C by 2100 (figure).3IPCCSummary for policymakers.in: Stocker TF D Qin G-K Plattner M Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK2013Google Scholar Extreme weather events will become more common, and the effect of global warming is likely to be felt over many sectors from health to agriculture. Vector-borne diseases are likely to increase. Climate change could reduce crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa by 22% for maize, and 8% for cassava.4Schlenker W Lobell DB Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture.Environ Res Lett. 2010; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar In 2012, the University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA, and the African Institute for Development Policy, Nairobi, Kenya, hosted a multidisciplinary international meeting on the Sahel.5Potts M Zulu E Castillo F Henderson C Crisis in the Sahel: possible solutions and the consequences of inaction. University of California, Bixby Center for Population Health and Sustainability, Berkeley2013Google Scholar Although recognising the serious threat that rapid population growth and desertification present in this region, the meeting also identified evidence-based solutions, including three key interventions. First, subsistence farmers and pastoralists need help to adapt to climate change. Adaptation will require the development of drought-resistant crops, methods to address changing patterns of pest infestations, improved crop storage, and more efficient water capture and storage. A multidisciplinary approach and a long-term vision are much needed—currently many interventions are not adopted until visible water shortages occur. Second, greater priority must be given to family planning. Political will must be garnered to advocate for international donors to invest in family planning, and Sahelian governments need to be more proactive. There is a well documented unmet need for family planning ranging from 16% to 35% of married women, calculated with the Demographic and Health Surveys STATcompiler, but in such high-fertility societies increased demand creation is also crucial. Where family planning has been brought to women in their own communities, as in Bangladesh, contraceptive use has increased rapidly, even among impoverished women.6Campbell M Prata N Potts M The impact of freedom on fertility decline.J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013; 39: 44-50Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar, 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM The determinants of reproductive change in Bangladesh: success in a challenging environment. The World Bank, Washington, DC1994Google Scholar Task shifting, for example training community volunteers to distribute injectable contraceptives,8Prata N Gessessew A Cartwright A Fraser A Provision of injectable contraceptives in Ethiopia through community-based reproductive health agents.Bull World Health Organ. 2011; 89: 556-564Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar and increased emphasis on surgical sterilisation, intrauterine devices, and implants, together with access to comprehensive abortion care, are essential. Third, donors and governments need to invest heavily in women's empowerment. The status of women in the Sahel is low. Child marriage remains common, increasing a woman's likelihood of early pregnancy, and decreasing her chances of leading an autonomous life. Pregnancy in immature teenage girls is a major cause of maternal mortality and morbidity, such as obstetric fistula.9Nour NM Health consequences of child marriage in Africa.Emerg Infect Dis. 2006; 11: 1644-1649Crossref Scopus (245) Google Scholar Promotion of education is a key strategy to reduce child marriage and postpone the first birth. Programmes to build capacity by education and microfinance among pastoral communities have turned poor illiterate women into leaders who helped adapt their communities to drought.10Coppock DI Desta S Texera S Gerbru G Capacity building helps pastoral women transform impoverished communities in Ethiopia.Science. 2011; 334: 1394-1397Crossref PubMed Scopus (40) Google Scholar In a polygamous Hausa society in northwest Nigeria, with a median age of marriage of 14·6 years and where parents commonly viewed menarche as a sign of readiness for marriage, many parents are now willing to delay their daughters' marriages if offered help with school fees and books. These three key interventions are regarded as mutually supportive. Although they involve long-term considerations, some, such as improved agricultural practices, have immediate payoffs. Programmes need to be integrated so as to exploit intrinsic multiplier effects. For example, educating girls facilitates the adoption of family planning and enhances income generation in the family. Rigorous research and assessment will be essential to build the evidence base for such urgently needed investments. Substantial gaps in demographic, agricultural, and health data need to be filled. Policies need to be designed to result in measurable, meaningful benefit to the most vulnerable populations. Interventions must be developed in a human rights framework, ensuring that the benefits do not drift only toward those with the most social and political capital. Least developed countries, such as those in the Sahel, receive 0·09% of gross national income of industrialised countries in official development assistance—far less than what donors have committed.11UN Population FundNetherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic InstituteResource Flows database. Population assistance per capital, sub-Saharan Africa, 2009.http://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar, 12UN Development Programme Bureau for Development PolicyTowards human resilience: sustaining MDG progress in an age of economic uncertainty. UN Development Programme, New York, NY, USA2011Google Scholar To confront the formidable challenges facing the region, action must be immediate and large scale. On the basis of the model of the Lancet Commission, we suggest that a group of experts from the Sahel and research institutions elsewhere in the world should be convened to explore and document the cross-sectoral, scalable initiatives needed to avoid the Sahel (and other least developed regions) being totally excluded from the promise of improved health and welfare foreseen in the Lancet Commission.1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al.Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation.Lancet. 2013; 382: 1898-1955Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (804) Google Scholar We declare that we have no competing interests. بالنسبة للعديد من البلدان النامية، أثبتت الاستثمارات في الصحة نجاحًا كبيرًا. لجنة لانسيت "الصحة العالمية 2035: عالم يتقارب في غضون جيل" 1Jamison DT Summers LH Alleyne G et al. الصحة العالمية 2035: عالم يتقارب في غضون جيل. 2013 ؛ 382: 1898-1955 ملخص النص الكامل PDF PubMed Scopus (804) الباحث العلمي من Google والرسالة السنوية 2014 Gates2Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation2014 Gates annual letter. 3 myths that block progress for the poor.http:// annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/#section=homeGoogle Scholar تصور إمكانية "التقارب الكبير" الذي من خلاله سيكون لدى المزيد من البلدان معدل وفيات الأطفال منخفضًا يصل إلى 15 لكل 1000 مولود حي في غضون 20 عامًا. نود أن نسترعي الانتباه إلى الحالة الخاصة لأقل البلدان نمواً، والتي من المرجح أن يتم استبعادها من هذا التقارب بناءً على الأدلة الحالية. لبدء مناقشة، سنركز على منطقة الساحل (المنطقة شبه القاحلة التي تبلغ مساحتها مليون ميل مربع في إفريقيا وتمتد من المحيط الأطلسي إلى البحر الأحمر) حيث من المرجح أن يكون لصدام النمو السكاني السريع بشكل فريد وبعض من أقسى آثار تغير المناخ أكبر الآثار الشاملة على الصحة. التوقعات السكانية الموضحة في الشكل هي المتغير المتوسط لشعبة السكان بالأمم المتحدة. يمكن تجاوز هذه التوقعات ما لم يتم التركيز بشكل أكبر على تنظيم الأسرة. حتى بافتراض الانخفاض السريع في حجم الأسرة من المتوسط الحالي البالغ 7.6، فإن عدد سكان النيجر وحده سينمو من 16 مليونًا اليوم إلى 58 مليونًا بحلول عام 2050. وتشير هذه الزيادة إلى الزخم السكاني الهائل في منطقة الساحل. أكثر من 40 ٪ من السكان تقل أعمارهم عن 15 عامًا. في غياب تخفيضات كبيرة في انبعاثات غازات الدفيئة من قبل الدول المتقدمة، من المرجح أن تعاني منطقة الساحل (لأنها جافة بالفعل) من بعض أسوأ آثار تغير المناخ، مع ارتفاع درجات الحرارة إلى 5-8 درجات مئوية بحلول عام 2100 (الشكل) .3 IPCCSummary for policymakers.in: Stocker TF D Qin G - K Plattner M Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. مطبعة جامعة كامبريدج، كامبريدج، المملكة المتحدة 2013 ستصبح أحداث الطقس المتطرفة لباحث جوجل أكثر شيوعًا، ومن المرجح أن يكون تأثير الاحترار العالمي ملموسًا في العديد من القطاعات من الصحة إلى الزراعة. من المرجح أن تزداد الأمراض المنقولة بالنواقل. يمكن لتغير المناخ أن يقلل من غلة المحاصيل في أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى بنسبة 22 ٪ للذرة، و 8 ٪ للكسافا .4 Schlenker W Lobell DB تأثيرات سلبية قوية لتغير المناخ على الزراعة الأفريقية. Environ Res Lett. 2010; 5: 014010Crossref Scopus (814) Google Scholar في عام 2012، استضافت جامعة كاليفورنيا، بيركلي، كاليفورنيا، الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، والمعهد الأفريقي لسياسة التنمية، نيروبي، كينيا، اجتماعًا دوليًا متعدد التخصصات حول أزمة الساحل 5 بوتس إم زولو إي كاستيلو إف هندرسون سي في الساحل: الحلول الممكنة وعواقب التقاعس عن العمل. جامعة كاليفورنيا، مركز بيكسبي لصحة السكان والاستدامة، بيركلي 2013 الباحث العلمي من Google على الرغم من إدراك التهديد الخطير الذي يمثله النمو السكاني السريع والتصحر في هذه المنطقة، فقد حدد الاجتماع أيضًا حلولًا قائمة على الأدلة، بما في ذلك ثلاثة تدخلات رئيسية. أولاً، يحتاج مزارعو الكفاف والرعاة إلى المساعدة للتكيف مع تغير المناخ. سيتطلب التكيف تطوير محاصيل مقاومة للجفاف، وطرقًا لمعالجة الأنماط المتغيرة لتفشي الآفات، وتحسين تخزين المحاصيل، وجمع المياه وتخزينها بشكل أكثر كفاءة. هناك حاجة ماسة إلى نهج متعدد التخصصات ورؤية طويلة الأجل - في الوقت الحالي لا يتم اعتماد العديد من التدخلات حتى يحدث نقص واضح في المياه. ثانياً، يجب إعطاء أولوية أكبر لتنظيم الأسرة. يجب حشد الإرادة السياسية لمناصرة المانحين الدوليين للاستثمار في تنظيم الأسرة، ويجب أن تكون حكومات منطقة الساحل أكثر استباقية. هناك حاجة موثقة جيدًا غير ملباة لتنظيم الأسرة تتراوح بين 16 ٪ إلى 35 ٪ من النساء المتزوجات، محسوبة باستخدام برنامج تجميع الاستقصاءات الديموغرافية والصحية، ولكن في مثل هذه المجتمعات ذات الخصوبة العالية، يعد زيادة خلق الطلب أمرًا بالغ الأهمية أيضًا. حيث تم جلب تنظيم الأسرة للنساء في مجتمعاتهن المحلية، كما هو الحال في بنغلاديش، زاد استخدام وسائل منع الحمل بسرعة، حتى بين النساء الفقيرات .6 Campbell M Prata N Potts M تأثير الحرية على انخفاض الخصوبة .J Fam Plan Reprod Health Care. 2013 ؛ 39: 44-50 Crossref PubMed Scopus (25) الباحث العلمي من Google، 7Cleland J Phillips J Amin S Kamal GM محددات التغيير الإنجابي في بنغلاديش: النجاح في بيئة صعبة. البنك الدولي، واشنطن، DC1994 تغيير مهام الباحث العلمي من Google، على سبيل المثال تدريب المتطوعين المجتمعيين على توزيع وسائل منع الحمل القابلة للحقن، 8 براتا إن جيسو إيه كارترايت إيه فريزر توفير وسائل منع الحمل القابلة للحقن في إثيوبيا من خلال وكلاء الصحة الإنجابية المجتمعية. منظمة الصحة العالمية. 2011 ؛ 89: 556-564 Crossref PubMed Scopus (46) Google Scholar وزيادة التركيز على التعقيم الجراحي والأجهزة داخل الرحم والغرسات، إلى جانب الوصول إلى الرعاية الشاملة للإجهاض، أمر ضروري. ثالثًا، تحتاج الجهات المانحة والحكومات إلى الاستثمار بكثافة في تمكين المرأة. وضع المرأة في منطقة الساحل منخفض. لا يزال زواج الأطفال شائعًا، مما يزيد من احتمال الحمل المبكر للمرأة، ويقلل من فرصها في العيش حياة مستقلة. يعد الحمل لدى الفتيات المراهقات غير الناضجات سببًا رئيسيًا لوفيات الأمهات واعتلالهن، مثل ناسور الولادة .9 ولا عواقب صحية لزواج الأطفال في أفريقيا .العدوى الطارئة. 2006 ؛ 11: 1644-1649 Crossref Scopus (245) يعد ترويج الباحث العلمي من Google للتعليم استراتيجية رئيسية للحد من زواج الأطفال وتأجيل الولادة الأولى. أدت برامج بناء القدرات من خلال التعليم والتمويل الأصغر بين المجتمعات الرعوية إلى تحويل النساء الأميات الفقيرات إلى قادة ساعدوا في تكييف مجتمعاتهن مع الجفاف .10 يساعد بناء القدرات النساء الرعويات على تحويل المجتمعات الفقيرة في إثيوبيا .العلوم. 2011 ؛ 334: 1394-1397 كروسريف بوبد سكوبس (40) الباحث العلمي من غوغل في مجتمع هوسا متعدد الزوجات في شمال غرب نيجيريا، بمتوسط عمر زواج يبلغ 14·6 سنوات وحيث ينظر الآباء عادة إلى الحيض على أنه علامة على الاستعداد للزواج، فإن العديد من الآباء على استعداد الآن لتأخير زواج بناتهم إذا عرضت عليهم المساعدة في الرسوم المدرسية والكتب. تعتبر هذه التدخلات الرئيسية الثلاثة داعمة لبعضها البعض. على الرغم من أنها تنطوي على اعتبارات طويلة الأجل، إلا أن بعضها، مثل الممارسات الزراعية المحسنة، يحصل على مكافآت فورية. يجب دمج البرامج من أجل استغلال التأثيرات المضاعفة الجوهرية. على سبيل المثال، يسهل تعليم الفتيات اعتماد تنظيم الأسرة ويعزز توليد الدخل في الأسرة. سيكون البحث والتقييم الدقيقان ضروريين لبناء قاعدة الأدلة لمثل هذه الاستثمارات المطلوبة بشكل عاجل. يجب سد الثغرات الكبيرة في البيانات الديموغرافية والزراعية والصحية. يجب تصميم السياسات بحيث تؤدي إلى فائدة قابلة للقياس وذات مغزى للفئات السكانية الأكثر ضعفاً. يجب تطوير التدخلات في إطار حقوق الإنسان، مع ضمان عدم انحراف الفوائد فقط نحو أولئك الذين لديهم أكبر قدر من رأس المال الاجتماعي والسياسي. تتلقى أقل البلدان نمواً، مثل تلك الموجودة في منطقة الساحل، 0·09 ٪ من الدخل القومي الإجمالي للبلدان الصناعية في المساعدة الإنمائية الرسمية - أقل بكثير مما التزم به المانحون .11 صندوق الأمم المتحدة للسكانالمعهد الديمغرافي الهولندي متعدد التخصصاتقاعدة بيانات تدفقات الموارد. المساعدة السكانية لكل رأس مال، أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى، 2009.http://www.resourceflows.org/Google Scholar، 12 مكتب برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي للسياسات الإنمائية نحو المرونة البشرية: الحفاظ على التقدم المحرز في الأهداف الإنمائية للألفية في عصر عدم اليقين الاقتصادي. برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي، نيويورك، نيويورك، الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية2011 الباحث العلمي من Google لمواجهة التحديات الهائلة التي تواجه المنطقة، يجب أن يكون العمل فوريًا وعلى نطاق واسع. على أساس نموذج لجنة لانسيت، نقترح عقد اجتماع لمجموعة من الخبراء من منطقة الساحل والمؤسسات البحثية في أماكن أخرى من العالم لاستكشاف وتوثيق المبادرات الشاملة لعدة قطاعات والقابلة للتطوير اللازمة لتجنب استبعاد منطقة الساحل (وغيرها من المناطق الأقل نمواً) تمامًا من الوعد بتحسين الصحة والرفاهية المتوقع في لجنة لانسيت. 1 جيمسون دي تي سمرز إل إتش ألين جي وآخرون. الصحة العالمية 2035: عالم يتقارب في غضون جيل. لانسيت. 2013 ؛ 382: 1898-1955 ملخص النص الكامل PDF PubMed Scopus (804) الباحث العلمي من Google نعلن أنه ليس لدينا مصالح متنافسة.
Access RoutesGreen gold 4 citations 4 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70021-x&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Jatmiko; K. Fifield; P. Hadi; Jian-xin Zhao; +11 Authors
Jian-xin Zhao
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJian-xin Zhao in OpenAIREJatmiko; K. Fifield; P. Hadi; Jian-xin Zhao; Jian-xin Zhao
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJian-xin Zhao in OpenAIRE Thomas Sutikna; Thomas Sutikna
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas Sutikna in OpenAIRE Kira E. Westaway; H. Allen; R. P. Soejono; R. Awe Due;Kira E. Westaway
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileKira E. Westaway in OpenAIRE Dwi Yani Yuniawati; Dwi Yani Yuniawati
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDwi Yani Yuniawati in OpenAIRE Mark W. Moore; Michael J Morwood; Michael J Morwood; E. W. Saptomo;Mark W. Moore
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMark W. Moore in OpenAIRE Chris S. M. Turney; Chris S. M. Turney
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChris S. M. Turney in OpenAIRESong Gupuh, a partially collapsed cave in the Gunung Sewu Limestones of East Java, Indonesia, contains over 16 m of deposits with a faunal sequence spanning some 70 ka. Major changes in the range of animals represented show the impact of climate change and humans. The Terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene was a period of maximum biodiversity. Human use of Song Gupuh and other cave sites in the region also intensified significantly from ca. 12 ka, together with a new focus on exploitation of small-bodied species (macaque monkeys and molluscs), the first evidence for import of resources from the coast, and use of bone and shell tools. Human activity, especially after the onset of the Neolithic around 2.6 ka, subsequently contributed to a progressive loss of many species from the area, including tapir, elephant, Malayan bear, rhino and tiger, and this extinction process is continuing. We conclude by discussing the biogeographical significance of Song Gupuh in the context of other sites in Java (e.g. Punung, Wajak) and further afield (e.g. Liang Bua).
Access RoutesGreen bronze 50 citations 50 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.jas.2007.11.025&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Jatmiko; K. Fifield; P. Hadi; Jian-xin Zhao; +11 Authors
Jian-xin Zhao
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJian-xin Zhao in OpenAIREJatmiko; K. Fifield; P. Hadi; Jian-xin Zhao; Jian-xin Zhao
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJian-xin Zhao in OpenAIRE Thomas Sutikna; Thomas Sutikna
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas Sutikna in OpenAIRE Kira E. Westaway; H. Allen; R. P. Soejono; R. Awe Due;Kira E. Westaway
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileKira E. Westaway in OpenAIRE Dwi Yani Yuniawati; Dwi Yani Yuniawati
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDwi Yani Yuniawati in OpenAIRE Mark W. Moore; Michael J Morwood; Michael J Morwood; E. W. Saptomo;Mark W. Moore
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMark W. Moore in OpenAIRE Chris S. M. Turney; Chris S. M. Turney
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChris S. M. Turney in OpenAIRESong Gupuh, a partially collapsed cave in the Gunung Sewu Limestones of East Java, Indonesia, contains over 16 m of deposits with a faunal sequence spanning some 70 ka. Major changes in the range of animals represented show the impact of climate change and humans. The Terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene was a period of maximum biodiversity. Human use of Song Gupuh and other cave sites in the region also intensified significantly from ca. 12 ka, together with a new focus on exploitation of small-bodied species (macaque monkeys and molluscs), the first evidence for import of resources from the coast, and use of bone and shell tools. Human activity, especially after the onset of the Neolithic around 2.6 ka, subsequently contributed to a progressive loss of many species from the area, including tapir, elephant, Malayan bear, rhino and tiger, and this extinction process is continuing. We conclude by discussing the biogeographical significance of Song Gupuh in the context of other sites in Java (e.g. Punung, Wajak) and further afield (e.g. Liang Bua).
Access RoutesGreen bronze 50 citations 50 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.jas.2007.11.025&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu
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