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Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin

Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin
Abstract. Flooding in the Amazon basin is frequently attributed to modes of large-scale climate variability, but little attention is paid to how these modes influence the timing and duration of floods despite their importance to early warning systems and the significant impacts that these flood characteristics can have on communities. In this study, river discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS 2.1) and observed data at 58 gauging stations are used to examine whether positive or negative phases of several Pacific and Atlantic indices significantly alter the characteristics of river flows throughout the Amazon basin (1979–2015). Results show significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases when the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is positioned in the central tropical Pacific. This response is not identified for the eastern Pacific index, highlighting how the response can differ between ENSO types. Although flood magnitude and duration were found to be highly correlated, the impacts of large-scale climate variability on these characteristics are non-linear; some increases in annual flood maxima coincide with decreases in flood duration. The impact of flood timing, however, does not follow any notable pattern for all indices analysed. Finally, observed and simulated changes are found to be much more highly correlated for negative ENSO phases compared to the positive phase, meaning that GloFAS struggles to accurately simulate the differences in flood characteristics between El Niño and neutral years. These results have important implications for both the social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of early warning action systems for floods.
- University of Reading United Kingdom
- Uppsala University Sweden
- Polytechnic University of Milan Italy
- King’s University United States
- Columbia University United States
Technology, Atmospheric Science, Inundaciones, Astronomy, Sea surface temperature, Climate Change and Variability Research, Urban Flooding, Flood Risk, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, Oceanography, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Klimatforskning, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Climate change, Psychology, GE1-350, TD1-1066, Water Science and Technology, Variabilidad climática, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Climate Change, Geography, Ecology, T, Physics, Geology, Condensed matter physics, Structural basin, Anomaly (physics), Earth and Planetary Sciences, FOS: Psychology, Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, Cartography, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Climate Research, Hydrometeorology, Amazon rainforest, Drainage basin, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Multivariate ENSO index, Flooding (psychology), Environmental science, G, Global Flood Risk Assessment and Management, Magnitude (astronomy), Hidrometeorología, Biology, El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, Paleontology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Flood myth, Floods, Climate Science, Environmental sciences, La Niña, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Psychotherapist, https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09, Flood Inundation Modeling, Klimatvetenskap
Technology, Atmospheric Science, Inundaciones, Astronomy, Sea surface temperature, Climate Change and Variability Research, Urban Flooding, Flood Risk, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, Oceanography, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Klimatforskning, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Climate change, Psychology, GE1-350, TD1-1066, Water Science and Technology, Variabilidad climática, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Climate Change, Geography, Ecology, T, Physics, Geology, Condensed matter physics, Structural basin, Anomaly (physics), Earth and Planetary Sciences, FOS: Psychology, Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, Cartography, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Climate Research, Hydrometeorology, Amazon rainforest, Drainage basin, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Multivariate ENSO index, Flooding (psychology), Environmental science, G, Global Flood Risk Assessment and Management, Magnitude (astronomy), Hidrometeorología, Biology, El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, Paleontology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Flood myth, Floods, Climate Science, Environmental sciences, La Niña, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Psychotherapist, https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09, Flood Inundation Modeling, Klimatvetenskap
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