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Please cite as: Wuebbles, D., J. Angel, K. Petersen, and A.M. Lemke, (Eds.), 2021: An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Illinois. The Nature Conservancy, Illinois, USA. https://doi.org/10.13012/B2IDB-1260194_V1 Climate change is a major environmental challenge that is likely to affect many aspects of life in Illinois, ranging from human and environmental health to the economy. Illinois is already experiencing impacts from the changing climate and, as climate change progresses and temperatures continue to rise, these impacts are expected to increase over time. This assessment takes an in-depth look at how the climate is changing now in Illinois, and how it is projected to change in the future, to provide greater clarity on how climate change could affect urban and rural communities in the state. Beyond providing an overview of anticipated climate changes, the report explores predicted effects on hydrology, agriculture, human health, and native ecosystems.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.E3SM-Project.E3SM-1-1' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The E3SM 1.1 (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 with resuspension, marine organics, and secondary organics (same grid as atmos), atmos: EAM (v1.1, cubed sphere spectral-element grid; 5400 elements with p=3; 1 deg average grid spacing; 90 x 90 x 6 longitude/latitude/cubeface; 72 levels; top level 0.1 hPa), atmosChem: Troposphere specified oxidants for aerosols. Stratosphere linearized interactive ozone (LINOZ v2) (same grid as atmos), land: ELM (v1.1, same grid as atmos; active biogeochemistry using the Converging Trophic Cascade plant and soil carbon and nutrient mechanisms to represent carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles), MOSART (v1.1, 0.5 degree latitude/longitude grid), ocean: MPAS-Ocean (v6.0, oEC60to30 unstructured SVTs mesh with 235160 cells and 714274 edges, variable resolution 60 km to 30 km; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: BEC (Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling model, NPZD-type with C/N/P/Fe/Si/O; same grid as ocean), seaIce: MPAS-Seaice (v6.0; same grid as ocean). The model was run by the LLNL (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA); ANL (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439, USA); BNL (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973, USA); LANL (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA); LBNL (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA); ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA); PNNL (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, USA); SNL (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA). Mailing address: LLNL Climate Program, c/o David C. Bader, Principal Investigator, L-103, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA (E3SM-Project) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 50 km, ocnBgchem: 50 km, seaIce: 50 km.

Bioplastics are alternatives of conventional petroleum-based plastics. Bioplastics are polymers processed from renewable sources and are biodegradable. This study aims at conducting an environmental impact assessment of the bioprocessing of agricultural wastes into bioplastics compared to petro-plastics using an LCA approach. Bioplastics were produced from potato peels in laboratory. In a biochemical reaction under heating, starch was extracted from peels and glycerin, vinegar and water were added with a range of different ratios, which resulted in producing different samples of bio-based plastics. Nevertheless, the environmental impact of the bioplastics production process was evaluated and compared to petro-plastics. A life cycle analysis of bioplastics produced in laboratory and petro-plastics was conducted. The results are presented in the form of global warming potential, and other environmental impacts including acidification potential, eutrophication potential, freshwater ecotoxicity potential, human toxicity potential, and ozone layer depletion of producing bioplastics are compared to petro-plastics. The results show that the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, through the different experiments to produce bioplastics, range between 0.354 and 0.623 kg CO2 eq. per kg bioplastic compared to 2.37 kg CO2 eq. per kg polypropylene as a petro-plastic. The results also showed that there are no significant potential effects for the bioplastics produced from potato peels on different environmental impacts in comparison with poly-β-hydroxybutyric acid and polypropylene. Thus, the bioplastics produced from agricultural wastes can be manufactured in industrial scale to reduce the dependence on petroleum-based plastics. This in turn will mitigate GHG emissions and reduce the negative environmental impacts on climate change.

This paper develops a strategy for the continuing and improved supply of woodfuels to urban and industrial consumers in Sub-Sahara Africa. It argues that continued use of these fuels is not only a necessity, but is also in the best economic interest of most of the countries in this region. It shows that intensified and more orderly utilization of woodfuels can help to enhance, rather than impinge upon environmental parameters. Some examples are provided that illustrate how such strategies can be put into practice.

Decarbonization of the transportation sector is particularly difficult due to its near-complete reliance on refined fossil fuels at present. In this paper, we describe the energy needs of the main transportation sectors worldwide: road transportation, aviation and maritime shipping. There is a growing commitment to electrification as the dominant decarbonization pathway. While deep electrification is promising (if by no means a certainty) for road transportation in wealthy countries, it will face steep obstacles in other sectors and in the developing world. Transportation decarbonization will require decoupling emissions from economic growth, highlighting the need for both accelerated technology innovation as well as creativity and cooperation in governance. The menu of policy options is replete with grim tradeoffs, particularly as the primacy of energy security and reliability (over emissions abatement) has once again been demonstrated in Europe and elsewhere. Aggregated vehicle ownership, emissions and electricity generate data for Countries and regions, worldwide.

In this study, the Transit Network Design Problem (TNDP) is studied to determine the set of routes and frequency on each route for public transportation systems. To ensure the important concerns of planners like route length, route configuration, demand satisfaction, and attractiveness of the transit routes, the TNDP is solved to generate a set of routes by proposing an initial route set generation (IRSG) procedure embedded into the NSGA-II algorithm. The proposed IRSG algorithm aims to produce high-quality initial route set solutions to reach better optimization procedures. Moreover, the Multi-Objective Mixed-Integer Non-Linear Programming (MOMINLP) model is proposed to formulate the frequency setting problem on each route by minimizing the total travel time of passengers (user costs) and operator costs simultaneously, while maximizing the service coverage area near all the bus stops. The MOMINLP model is solved by applying the NSGA-II algorithm to produce a Pareto front between the first and the second objective functions. The model was applied to the Fargo-Moorhead Area (FMA), a small urban area. Results were compared with the existing transit network to measure the efficiency of the NSGA-II solution methodology. The proposed algorithm was found to considerably decrease the total travel time of passengers.

This chapter focuses on the evaluation of adaptive capacities of community-level human systems related to agriculture and food security. It highlights findings regarding approaches and domains to monitor and evaluate behavioral changes from CGIAR’s research program on climate change, agriculture and food security (CCAFS). This program, implemented in five West African countries, is intended to enhance adaptive capacities in agriculture management of natural resources and food systems. In support of participatory action research on climate-smart agriculture, a monitoring and evaluation plan was designed with the participation of all stakeholders to track changes in behavior of the participating community members. Individuals’ and groups’ stories of changes were collected using most significant change tools. The collected stories of changes were substantiated through field visits and triangulation techniques. Frequencies of the occurrence of characteristics of behavioral changes in the stories were estimated. The results show that smallholder farmers in the intervention areas adopted various characteristics of behavior change grouped into five domains: knowledge, practices, access to assets, partnership and organization. These characteristics can help efforts to construct quantitative indicators of climate change adaptation at local level. Further, the results suggest that application of behavioral change theories can facilitate the development of climate change adaptation indicators that are complementary to indicators of development outcomes. We conclude that collecting stories on behavioral changes can contribute to biophysical adaptation monitoring and evaluation.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.NCAR.CESM2-WACCM.ssp126' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2-WACCM climate model, released in 2018, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: WACCM6 (0.9x1.25 finite volume grid; 288 x 192 longitude/latitude; 70 levels; top level 4.5e-06 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320 x 384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.