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AbstractBackgroundForest conservation is a major global policy goal, due to the role forests play in climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. It is well recognized that the introduction of policies, whether aimed at forest conservation or with other objectives, has the potential to trigger unintended outcomes, such as displacement or leakage, which can undermine policy objectives. However, a set of outcomes that has escaped detailed scrutiny are anticipatory forest use behaviours, emerging when forest stakeholders anticipate policy implementation, deploying for example pre-emptive forest clearing, resulting in detrimental environmental outcomes. Lack of understanding of the extent and sectorial scope of these behaviours prevents us from devising strategies to address their potential detrimental consequences.MethodsThis protocol presents the methodology that will be followed to conduct a systematic map to identify, compile, review and describe the evidence available on anticipatory forest use behaviours in the context of policy introduction around the world. We will use two complementary search strategies, which we have tested before submitting this protocol. First, a systematic bibliographic search, and second, a citation chase approach. We will include articles based on a pre-defined set of criteria defined according to a Population, Intervention and Outcome (i.e. PIO) design. To support identification of knowledge gaps and clusters, we will report results of the systematic map in a narrative synthesis, an evidence atlas and other visualisations.

AbstractProgress in key social-ecological challenges of the global environmental agenda (e.g., climate change, biodiversity conservation, Sustainable Development Goals) is hampered by a lack of integration and synthesis of existing scientific evidence. Facing a fast-increasing volume of data, information remains compartmentalized to pre-defined scales and fields, rarely building its way up to collective knowledge. Today's distributed corpus of human intelligence, including the scientific publication system, cannot be exploited with the efficiency needed to meet current evidence synthesis challenges; computer-based intelligence could assist this task. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approaches underlain by semantics and machine reasoning offer a constructive way forward, but depend on greater understanding of these technologies by the science and policy communities and coordination of their use. By labelling web-based scientific information to become readable by both humans and computers, machines can search, organize, reuse, combine and synthesize information quickly and in novel ways. Modern open science infrastructure—i.e., public data and model repositories—is a useful starting point, but without shared semantics and common standards for machine actionable data and models, our collective ability to build, grow, and share a collective knowledge base will remain limited. The application of semantic and machine reasoning technologies by a broad community of scientists and decision makers will favour open synthesis to contribute and reuse knowledge and apply it toward decision making.

Mesocosm experiments have become increasingly popular in climate change research as they bridge the gap between small-scale, less realistic, microcosm experiments, and large-scale, more complex, natural systems. Characteristics of aquatic mesocosm designs (e.g., mesocosm volume, study duration, and replication) vary widely, potentially affecting the magnitude and direction of effect sizes measured in experiments. In this global systematic review we aim to identify the type, direction and strength of climate warming effects on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems in mesocosm experiments. Furthermore, we will investigate the context-dependency of the observed effects on several a priori determined effect moderators (ecological and methodological). Our conclusions will provide recommendations for aquatic scientists designing mesocosm experiments, as well as guidelines for interpretation of experimental results by scientists, policy-makers and the general public. We will conduct a systematic search using multiple online databases to gather evidence from the scientific literature on the effects of warming experimentally tested in aquatic mesocosms. Data from relevant studies will be extracted and used in a random effects meta-analysis to estimate the overall effect sizes of warming experiments on species performance, biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Experimental characteristics (e.g., mesocosm size and shape, replication-level, experimental duration and design, biogeographic region, community type, crossed manipulation) will be further analysed using subgroup analyses.

Abstract Background Ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation (EbA) integrate the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services into an overall strategy for helping people adapt to climate change. To date, insight into these approaches has often been based on reports from isolated anecdotal case studies. Although these are informative, and provide evidence that people are using ecosystems to adapt, they provide rather limited insight in terms of measuring and evaluating the effectiveness of EbA, especially when compared with technical or structural adaptation interventions. The body of scientific evidence indicating how effective such approaches are is lacking in some aspects. Where evidence does exist it is often dispersed across a range of related fields, such as natural resource management, disaster risk reduction and agroecology. To date, there has been little attempt to systematically assemble and analyse this evidence. Therefore, the current state of evidence regarding the merits or otherwise of EbA is unknown and it has not been possible to identify prevailing knowledge gaps to inform research and analysis, which will enable policymakers to compare EbA with other adaptation options. Methods This protocol details the methodology to be used to conduct a systematic map of peer-reviewed published journal papers and a limited selection of grey literature, to give a methodical overview of the state of the evidence base for EbA effectiveness, and to identify the current knowledge gaps. It addresses the following question: What is the state of the evidence base regarding the ability of ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation to help people adapt to the impacts of climate change?

Le changement climatique et les taux élevés d'émissions mondiales de carbone ont attiré l'attention sur la nécessité de systèmes de surveillance de haute qualité pour évaluer la quantité de carbone présente dans les systèmes terrestres et son évolution dans le temps. Le choix du système à adopter doit être guidé par une bonne science. Il existe un nombre croissant d'informations scientifiques et techniques sur les méthodes de mesure du carbone au sol et par télédétection. L'adéquation et la comparabilité de ces différents systèmes n'ont pas été pleinement évaluées. Un examen systématique comparera les méthodes d'évaluation des stocks de carbone et des changements des stocks de carbone dans les principales catégories d'utilisation des terres, y compris les terres forestières, les terres cultivées, les prairies et les zones humides, dans les réservoirs de carbone terrestres qui peuvent être pris en compte dans le protocole de Kyoto (biomasse aérienne, biomasse souterraine, bois mort, litière et carbone du sol). L'évaluation du carbone dans les produits ligneux récoltés ne sera pas prise en compte dans cette revue. L'élaboration de stratégies d'atténuation efficaces pour réduire les émissions de carbone et de stratégies d'adaptation équitables pour faire face à l'augmentation des températures mondiales reposera sur des informations scientifiques solides et exemptes de biais imposés par les intérêts nationaux et commerciaux. Un examen systématique des méthodes utilisées pour évaluer les stocks de carbone et les variations des stocks de carbone contribuera à l'analyse transparente d'une science complexe et souvent contradictoire. El cambio climático y las altas tasas de emisiones globales de carbono han centrado la atención en la necesidad de sistemas de monitoreo de alta calidad para evaluar cuánto carbono está presente en los sistemas terrestres y cómo cambian con el tiempo. La elección del sistema a adoptar debe guiarse por la buena ciencia. Existe un creciente cuerpo de información científica y técnica sobre los métodos de medición de carbono basados en tierra y de teledetección. La idoneidad y comparabilidad de estos diferentes sistemas no se han evaluado completamente. Una revisión sistemática comparará los métodos de evaluación de las reservas de carbono y los cambios en las reservas de carbono en las categorías clave de uso de la tierra, incluidas las tierras forestales, las tierras de cultivo, los pastizales y los humedales, en los depósitos de carbono terrestre que se pueden contabilizar en virtud del protocolo de Kyoto (biomasa sobre el suelo, biomasa subterránea, madera muerta, basura y carbono del suelo). La evaluación del carbono en los productos de madera recolectada no se considerará en esta revisión. El desarrollo de estrategias de mitigación efectivas para reducir las emisiones de carbono y estrategias de adaptación equitativas para hacer frente al aumento de las temperaturas globales se basará en información científica sólida que esté libre de sesgos impuestos por intereses nacionales y comerciales. Una revisión sistemática de los métodos utilizados para evaluar las reservas de carbono y los cambios en las reservas de carbono contribuirá al análisis transparente de la ciencia compleja y, a menudo, contradictoria. Climate change and high rates of global carbon emissions have focussed attention on the need for high-quality monitoring systems to assess how much carbon is present in terrestrial systems and how these change over time. The choice of system to adopt should be guided by good science. There is a growing body of scientific and technical information on ground-based and remote sensing methods of carbon measurement. The adequacy and comparability of these different systems have not been fully evaluated. A systematic review will compare methods of assessing carbon stocks and carbon stock changes in key land use categories, including, forest land, cropland, grassland, and wetlands, in terrestrial carbon pools that can be accounted for under the Kyoto protocol (above- ground biomass, below-ground biomass, dead wood, litter and soil carbon). Assessing carbon in harvested wood products will not be considered in this review. Developing effective mitigation strategies to reduce carbon emissions and equitable adaptation strategies to cope with increasing global temperatures will rely on robust scientific information that is free from biases imposed by national and commercial interests. A systematic review of the methods used for assessing carbon stocks and carbon stock changes will contribute to the transparent analysis of complex and often contradictory science. ركز تغير المناخ وارتفاع معدلات انبعاثات الكربون العالمية الاهتمام على الحاجة إلى أنظمة مراقبة عالية الجودة لتقييم كمية الكربون الموجودة في الأنظمة الأرضية وكيفية تغيرها بمرور الوقت. يجب أن يسترشد اختيار النظام الذي يجب اعتماده بالعلم الجيد. هناك مجموعة متزايدة من المعلومات العلمية والتقنية حول طرق الاستشعار الأرضي وعن بعد لقياس الكربون. لم يتم تقييم مدى كفاية هذه الأنظمة المختلفة وقابليتها للمقارنة بشكل كامل. ستقارن المراجعة المنهجية طرق تقييم مخزونات الكربون وتغيرات مخزون الكربون في الفئات الرئيسية لاستخدام الأراضي، بما في ذلك أراضي الغابات والأراضي الزراعية والمراعي والأراضي الرطبة، في مجمعات الكربون الأرضية التي يمكن حسابها بموجب بروتوكول كيوتو (الكتلة الحيوية فوق الأرض والكتلة الحيوية تحت الأرض والحطب والقمامة وكربون التربة). لن يتم النظر في تقييم الكربون في منتجات الخشب المقطوع في هذه المراجعة. سيعتمد وضع استراتيجيات تخفيف فعالة للحد من انبعاثات الكربون واستراتيجيات التكيف المنصفة للتعامل مع ارتفاع درجات الحرارة العالمية على معلومات علمية قوية خالية من التحيزات التي تفرضها المصالح الوطنية والتجارية. ستساهم المراجعة المنهجية للطرق المستخدمة لتقييم مخزونات الكربون وتغيرات مخزون الكربون في التحليل الشفاف للعلوم المعقدة والمتناقضة في كثير من الأحيان.

Abstract Background Natural climate solutions (NCS)—actions to conserve, restore, and modify natural and modified ecosystems to increase carbon storage or avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—are increasingly regarded as important pathways for climate change mitigation, while contributing to our global conservation efforts, overall planetary resilience, and sustainable development goals. Recently, projections posit that terrestrial-based NCS can potentially capture or avoid the emission of at least 11 Gt (gigatons) of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, or roughly encompassing one third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the Paris Climate Agreement goals by 2030. NCS interventions also purport to provide co-benefits such as improved productivity and livelihoods from sustainable natural resource management, protection of locally and culturally important natural areas, and downstream climate adaptation benefits. Attention on implementing NCS to address climate change across global and national agendas has grown—however, clear understanding of which types of NCS interventions have undergone substantial study versus those that require additional evidence is still lacking. This study aims to conduct a systematic map to collate and describe the current state, distribution, and methods used for evidence on the links between NCS interventions and climate change mitigation outcomes within tropical and sub-tropical terrestrial ecosystems. Results of this study can be used to inform program and policy design and highlight critical knowledge gaps where future evaluation, research, and syntheses are needed. Methods To develop this systematic map, we will search two bibliographic databases (including 11 indices) and 67 organization websites, backward citation chase from 39 existing evidence syntheses, and solicit information from key informants. All searches will be conducted in English and encompass subtropical and tropical terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands, mangroves, agricultural areas). Search results will be screened at title and abstract, and full text levels, recording both the number of excluded articles and reasons for exclusion. Key meta-data from included articles will be coded and reported in a narrative review that will summarize trends in the evidence base, assess gaps in knowledge, and provide insights for policy, practice, and research. The data from this systematic map will be made open access.