• Energy Research

Many developing countries face a dilemma between meeting the intensive growth in electricity demand, broadening an electricity access, as well as tackling climate change. The use of renewable energy is considered as an option for meeting both electrification and climate change objectives. In this study, long-term forecasting of electricity supply for the Java-Bali power system – the main power system in Indonesia – is presented. The forecasts take into consideration the Indonesian government policy of increasing the share of new and renewable energy in the national energy mix up to 23% by 2025 and 30% by 2050. After a systematic review of energy system models, we perform the analysis of the Java-Bali power system expansion using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) model. Three scenarios are developed over the planning horizon (2016-2050) including the business as usual scenario (BAU), the renewable energy scenario (REN) and the optimization scenario (OPT). The results of the three scenarios are analyzed in terms of the changes in resource/technology deployment, CO2 emissions and total costs.

This article assesses developing-countries’ power sector pathways toward net zero. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) combined with the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO) is used to simulate 100% renewable energy integration into power systems. While many studies have been carried out using LEAP, few have utilized NEMO (the latest optimization add-on for LEAP) for analyzing net-zero pathways of the power sector in developing countries. NEMO enables the inclusion of energy storage capacity in the long-term simulation of power system capacity expansion. Storage is crucial for balancing intermittent renewable energy especially when high penetration of renewable energy is considered. The analysis is applied to three countries in the Global South: Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. These three cases are selected because they share important similarities (e.g., all three are below the energy poverty line and vulnerable to climate change impacts) but also have differences (notably, electrification rates), making them suitable for comparison. The LEAP-NEMO results indicate that the average electricity consumption per capita of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar will pass the energy poverty line by 2030, 2035, and 2045, respectively. On the supply side, the results show that the three countries can integrate 100% renewable energy into their power systems by realizing their hydropower potential and deploying non-hydro renewables. As expected, energy storage systems will have to play a critical role in balancing variable renewable energy with a total storage capacity of 16.1 GW by 2050. The annual average costs for the sustainable path range from 1.1% to 1.8% of GDP in 2020. While the approach presented in this article is applied to three specific developing countries, it can be replicated in other developing countries to analyze the integration of 100% renewable energy into the power system to achieve net zero emissions.

The power sector is one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions while also being vulnerable to climate change in its own right. Accordingly, the global power sector needs to accelerate decarbonization. This paper assesses power sector pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 for the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). In addition to simulating a net-zero emissions scenario, the paper builds reference and renewable policy scenarios, enabling an analysis of additional measures required beyond the business as usual and current policy trajectories to achieve net-zero emissions. The LEAP simulation results indicate that under the net-zero emissions scenario, ASEAN member states need to swiftly capitalize on their currently underutilized renewable energy potential to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. By then, there will have to be a substantial transformation of the technological portfolio with variable renewable energy and energy storage coming to play central roles. The LEAP simulations also indicate that renewable and energy storage technologies are more cost-competitive than carbon capture and storage for achieving the long-term net-zero emissions goal. In the LEAP modeling, GHG emissions rise until they peak in 2029, then gradually decline until reaching zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the emission abatement cost is 16 USD/ton CO2e in the renewable policy scenario and 12 USD/CO2e in the net-zero emissions scenario.

Reductions in carbon emissions have been a focus of the power sector. However, the sector itself is vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. Extreme weather events and gradual changes in climate variables can affect the reliability, cost, and environmental impacts of the energy supply. This paper analyzed the interplay between CO2 mitigation attempts and adaptations to climate change in the power sector using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) model. This paper presented a novel methodology to integrate both CO2 mitigation goals and the impacts of climate change into simulations of a power system expansion. The impacts on electricity supply and demand were quantified, based on historical climate-related impacts revealed during fieldwork and existing literature. The quantified effects, together with climate mitigation targets, were then integrated into the LEAP modeling architecture. The results showed a substantial alteration in technology composition and an increase in installed capacities driven by the joint climate mitigation–adaptation efforts when compared with the scenario without mitigation and adaptation (reference). Furthermore, an increase in CO2 emissions was observed under the mitigation-adaptation scenario compared with the mitigation only scenario, indicating that the power sector’s adaptations for climate change are likely to hinder CO2 mitigation efforts. Therefore, a nexus between mitigation and adaptation should be exploited in the policy development for a low-carbon and climate-resilient power system.

The power sector in many developing countries face challenges of a fast-rising electricity demand in urban areas and an urgency of improved electricity access in rural areas. In the context of climate change, these development needs are challenged by the vital goal of CO2 mitigation. This paper investigates plausible trade-offs between electrification and CO2 mitigation in a developing country context, taking Indonesia as a case study. Aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement, the Government of Indonesia has announced its voluntary pledge to reduce 29% of its GHGs emissions against the business as usual scenario by 2030. 11% of this should be attained by the energy sector. We incorporate the Indonesian Paris pledge into the modelling of capacity expansion of the Java-Bali power system, which is the largest power system in Indonesia. The LEAP model is used for the analysis in this study. Firstly, we validate the LEAP model using historical data of the national electricity system. Secondly, we develop and analyse four scenarios of the Java-Bali power system expansion from the base year 2015 through to 2030. These include a reference scenario (REF) to reflect a continuation of the present energy mix (REF), then a shift from coal to natural gas (NGS) (natural gas), followed by an expansion of renewable energy (REN) and, finally, the least-cost option (OPT). The shift to natural gas decreases future CO2 emissions by 38.2 million ton, helping to achieve the CO2 mitigation target committed to. Likewise, an escalation of renewable energy development in the Java-Bali islands cuts the projected CO2 emissions by 38.9 million ton and, thus, assures meeting the target. The least-cost scenario attains the targeted emission reduction, but at 33% and 52% lower additional costs compared to NGS and REN, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of CO2 mitigation scenarios range from 14.9 to 41.8 US$/tCO2e.

The power sector is a key target for reducing CO2 emissions. However, little attention has been paid to the sector’s vulnerability to climate change. This paper investigates the impacts of severe weather events and changes in climate variables on the power sector in developing countries, focusing on Indonesia as a country with growing electricity infrastructure, yet being vulnerable to natural hazards. We obtain empirical evidence concerning weather and climate impacts through interviews and focus group discussions with electric utilities along the electricity supply chain. These data are supplemented with reviews of utilities’ reports and published energy sector information. Our results indicate that severe weather events often cause disruptions in electricity supply—in the worst cases, even power outages. Weather-related power outages mainly occur due to failures in distribution networks. While severe weather events infrequently cause shutdowns of power plants, their impact magnitude is significant if it does occur. Meanwhile, transmission networks are susceptible to lightning strikes, which are the leading cause of the networks’ weather-related failures. We also present estimates of financial losses suffered by utilities due to weather-related power disruptions and highlights their adaptation responses to those disruptions.

This study analyses a diffusion of renewable energy in an electricity system accounting for technological learning. We explore long-term scenarios for capacity expansion of the Java-Bali electricity system in Indonesia, considering the country’s renewable energy targets. We apply the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with an integration of technological learning. Our results reveal that, at the medium and high pace of technological learning, the total costs of electricity production to achieve the long-term renewable energy target are 4–10% lower than the scenario without considering technological learning. With respect to technology, solar PV and wind become competitive with other types of renewables and nuclear. Moreover, the fulfilment of the renewable energy targets decreases CO2 emissions by 25% compared to the reference scenario. Implications of our results indicate that energy policies should focus on the early deployment of renewables, upgrading the grid capacity to accommodate variable renewable energy, and enabling faster local learning.

This paper is based on a discussion developed by one of the thematic working groups at the Biennial International Workshop Advances in Energy Studies (BIWAES) 2017 hold in Naples, Italy. The topic was the role of technology in energy transition and global problems. Owing to the heterogeneity of the participants in the working group, different viewpoints were put together, leading to some shared conclusions. In particular, the role played by the different narratives used in discussing the role of technology in facing global problems was pointed out as the origin of cognitive dissonance. The presented reflections address some conceptual weaknesses in the current debate on technology and global issues, framed in global policies that appear incapable to obtain tangible results. The technology optimism seems, in fact, to be based on the elusive use of both the concepts of technology and sustainability, that are put together for narrative purposes without an explicit conceptual assessment. On one hand, the factual role of technology and its beneficiary are almost never clearly addressed in the debate. On the other hand, the fact that any new technology will serve the cause of sustainability is not questioned whatsoever, without taking into account the social, political and ethical framework in which technology is supposed to be operated.