• Energy Research

AbstractClimate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Abstract Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980's and their compositional best match in the 2010’s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Abstract Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by global change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, elevation, and temperature gradients, can influence a community's ability to shift. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in global change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980's and their nearest compositional equivalent in the 2010’s and modelled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coasts and elevation having the strongest influence. Combining ecological barriers and community shift projections can identify ecological corridors that facilitate shifts of species and communities under global change.

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Le fichier de données source contient des données pour tracer les figures 1,2 et 3 et les figures supplémentaires S1, S3 à S12 et le tableau supplémentaire S1. Les données supplémentaires contiennent les données sur les caractères de l'espèce. Des références pour les sources de données peuvent être trouvées dans la feuille séparée. Les traits à noter ont été rassemblés pour 378 espèces d'oiseaux nicheurs européens, mais les données sur l'étendue de l'habitat n'étaient disponibles que pour 336 espèces. Les sources de données sur les espèces se trouvent dans l'onglet Références. El archivo de datos de origen contiene datos para trazar las Figuras 1,2 y 3, y las Figuras Complementarias S1, S3 -S12 y la Tabla Complementaria S1. Los datos complementarios contienen datos de rasgos de las especies. Las referencias de las fuentes de datos se pueden encontrar en la hoja separada. Los rasgos de la nota se recopilaron para 378 especies de aves reproductoras europeas, pero los datos de amplitud del hábitat solo estaban disponibles para 336 especies. Las fuentes de datos de especies se pueden encontrar en la pestaña Referencias. Source data file contains data for plotting Figures 1,2, and 3, and Supplementary Figures S1, S3 -S12, and Supplementary Table S1. Supplementary data contains species' trait data. References for data sources can be found in the separate sheet. Note traits were collated for 378 species of European breeding bird, but habitat breadth data were only available for 336 species. Sources of species data can be found in the References tab. يحتوي ملف البيانات المصدر على بيانات لرسم الأشكال 1 و 2 و 3 والأشكال التكميلية S1 و S3 - S12 والجدول التكميلي S1. تحتوي البيانات التكميلية على بيانات سمات الأنواع. يمكن العثور على مراجع لمصادر البيانات في الورقة المنفصلة. تم جمع سمات الملاحظة لـ 378 نوعًا من طيور التكاثر الأوروبية، لكن بيانات اتساع الموائل كانت متاحة فقط لـ 336 نوعًا. يمكن العثور على مصادر بيانات الأنواع في علامة التبويب المراجع.

Abstract: Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s���2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr���1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr���1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ���climate debt���. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds��� resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

Abstract Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.