• Energy Research

Low emission and green hydrogen as a carbon-free energy carrier has attracted worldwide attention in decarbonizing the energy system and meeting the Paris agreement target of limiting warming to 2 °C or below. This study investigates the contribution of different hydrogen pathways to the energy transition and sheds light on adopting different decarbonization scenarios for Quebec, Canada, while including biogenic emissions from forest-based biomass consumption. We assess various alternative policy scenarios using a TIMES model for North America (NATEM), a bottom-up techno-economic approach. This study examines the role of various hydrogen pathways in Quebec's energy transition by considering different net-zero policy scenarios and an additional set of “green” scenarios, which prohibit the use of fossil fuel-based hydrogen. The results show that varying the penetration of hydrogen provides a key trade-off between reliance on direct air capture, reliance on carbon storage, reliance on wind and solar buildout, the inter-sector allocation of residual emissions, and the overall cost of achieving emission targets. In particular, the use of hydrogen in the industrial sector, a sector known to be difficult to decarbonize, reduces industrial emissions and reliance on direct air capture (DAC). Clustering industrial plants to use captured CO2 as a feedstock for synthetic fuel production may not reduce industrial GHG emissions by 2050, but it offers the opportunity to use captured CO2 instead of sequestering it in deep saline aquifers. Even though increasing industrial green hydrogen penetration increases marginal GHG abatement costs in the green net-zero scenario by 2050, it further minimizes industrial GHG emissions and the need for DAC among all net-zero scenarios by 2050. Hydrogen plays a significant role in achieving ambitious net-zero emission target, especially where electrification is not feasible, or electricitystorage is required.

Urban activities are an important driver of ecosystem services decline. Sustainable urbanisation necessitates anticipating and mitigating these negative socio-ecological impacts, both within and beyond city boundaries. There is a lack of scalable, dynamic models of changes to ecosystems wrought by urban processes. We developed a system dynamics model, ESTIMUM, to predict locations, types, and magnitude of changes in ecosystem services. We tested the model in Lisbon (Portugal) under four specific urban development scenarios – a base case scenario and three local sustainability-driven scenarios – to the year 2050. Our results show that urban sustainability policies focused on reducing impacts within Lisbon can be undermined by increased impacts in the extended regions that supply resources to the city. In particular, carbon sequestration from urban greening pales in comparison to growing greenhouse gases from the consumption of food, energy and construction materials. We also find that policies targeted at these extended environmental impacts can be much more effective than those with a limited focus on the urban form. For example, dietary shifts could support positive changes outside that city to increase global climate regulation by 54% compared to a mere 1% increase through intensive urban greening. This highlights the urgent need for a reframing of urban sustainability in policy and scholarly circles from city-centric focus towards an expanded multi-scalar conceptualisation of urban sustainability that accounts for urban impacts beyond the city boundaries.

Consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) applied to systems under continuous evolution, such as cities, usually disregard interactions among local components, how policy decisions influence them, and the value of spatial data. As a result, local environmental impacts might not be well-considered. This paper investigates how a spatially explicit system dynamics (SD) modelling approach can overcome such limitation, contributing to the advancement of CLCA. First, a novel CLCA conceptual framework is presented combining consequential life cycle inventories, SD principles and the use of spatially explicit data. Second, its innovative value is demonstrated through a proof-of-concept SD-CLCA model. This model evaluates the environmental impacts of changes in electricity supply-demand in the market due to an increasing adoption of solar photovoltaic panels (SPV) in residential buildings. It allows traceability of both system changes and their environmental consequences. For demonstration purposes, the SD-CLCA model is applied to Lisbon municipality and the broader electricity market of Portugal. Results showcase how SD-CLCA models could provide a closer representation of the real effects of predicted changes in the electricity market due to different SPV adoption scenarios. They also illustrate that changes in gross domestic product, population and precipitation provide a diversified set of impact scores. As a methodological advancement, and to the net of a few shortcomings, the proposed SD-CLCA model is able to capture the complexity of cause-effect dynamics determining environmental impacts, which currently represents a research gap in LCA.

This file provides data used to approximate the annual Canadian milk yield based on herd statistics and estimated on-farm use. Using a mass balance approach, subtracting farm gate sales data, the balance is assumed to be wasted before leaving the farm gate. Data sources are provided with supporting literature where relevant. This recomended citation for this record is: Elliot, T., Goldstein, B. P., and Charlebois, S. (2025). Over 6 billion liters of Canadian milk wasted since 2012. Ecological Economics, 227, 108413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108413

Urbanisation poses new and complex sustainability challenges. Socio-economic activities drive material and energy flows in cities that influence the health of ecosystems inside and outside the urban system. Recent studies suggest that these flows, under the urban metabolism (UM) metaphor, can be extended to encompass the assessment of urban ecosystem services (UES). Advancing UM approaches to assess UES may be a valuable solution to these arising sustainability challenges, which can support urban planning decisions. This paper critically reviews UM literature related to the UES concept and identifies approaches that may allow or improve the assessment of UES within UM frameworks. We selected from the UM literature 42 studies that encompass UES aspects, and analysed them on the following key investigation themes: temporal information, spatial information, system boundary aspects and cross-scale indicators. The analysis showed that UES are rarely acknowledged in UM literature, and that existing UM approaches have limited capacity to capture the complexity of spatio-temporal and multi-scale information underpinning UES, which has hampered the implementation of operational decision support systems so far. We use these results to identify and illustrate pathways towards a UM-UES modelling approach. Our review suggests that cause–effect dynamics should be integrated with the UM framework, based on spatially-specific social, economic and ecological data. System dynamics can inform on the causal relationships underpinning UES in cities and, therefore, can help moving towards a knowledge base tool to support urban planners in addressing urban challenges.

Abstract Urbanisation and the associated growing climate change burdens pose risks to urban and global climate resilience. Urban greenhouse gas emissions fluctuate over time in response to energy demand, which is influenced by government programmes, economic activity, and demographics. In this research, we investigate the influence of policy on urban energy demand and its consequences on mitigating climate change impacts. Using a case study of Lisbon, Portugal from 2008 to 2016, we illustrate a combined use of an urban energy metabolism assessment coupled with a logarithmic mean Divisia index to isolate the changes in energy-related carbon emissions associated with policy changes. We then link these energy flows to life cycle emissions factors to build a multi-level assessment between local and non-local global warming potential. We find that in 2016 Lisbon’s energy flows generated more than 2 Mt of CO2-equivalent emissions over their life cycles, 48% of which were direct emissions within the city. This corresponds to a decrease of around 37% in greenhouse gas emissions from 2008. Additionally, we estimate the potential of Lisbon’s urban forests to sequester these emissions to understand the potential for climate change mitigation. Results show that Lisbon’s urban forest can meet less than 1% of the emissions throughout the assessment period. We discuss the changes, concluding that urban forests are insufficient in size to meet the sequestration demands of the urban energy metabolism, and therefore the focus must be more attuned to reducing fossil fuel use in the urban trade and transport activities.

Abstract Purpose Climate change policies are increasingly including time-dependent carbon targets for different economic activities. However, current standards and guidelines for climate change assessment of buildings ignore these dynamic aspects and require use of static life cycle assessment (LCA). This research investigates how to better account for the timing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals in LCAs of buildings and construction products, using a static and dynamic LCA case study of roofs, walls and floors in Aotearoa New Zealand residential dwellings. Methods Static and dynamic LCA methods were used to assess the climate change impact of two assemblies each for external walls, ground floors and roofs used in stand-alone residential dwellings in Aotearoa New Zealand. Each assembly was modelled for a life cycle extending from material production, through to element construction, operational use, and final end-of-life treatment. Results were calculated as total GWP100 results for each life cycle stage, GWP100 results disaggregated into time periods, and as instantaneous and cumulative radiative forcing up to year 190. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken for the building reference service life, exposure zone, location, and end-of-life treatment. Results and discussion Four time-related aspects were found to be particularly significant as regards their contribution to the final static LCA (sLCA) climate change results: Inclusion versus exclusion of biogenic carbon storage in landfill Modelling of end-of-life recycling activities using current versus future low or net zero carbon technologies (in module D) Building reference service life (50 versus 90 years) Choice of modelling parameters for landfilled timber and engineered wood products. Use of dynamic LCA (dLCA) enabled priorities to be identified for climate change mitigation actions in the shorter and longer term, and showed that half of the assemblies achieved net zero carbon by year 190 (timber wall, steel wall, timber floor). Conclusions Timing of GHG emissions and removals should be included in LCAs to support decision-making in the context of achieving targets set in climate change policies. In particular, LCA results should show ongoing biogenic carbon storage in landfilled timber and engineered wood products. Carbon footprint standards, guidelines and calculation tools should be prescriptive about building and construction product reference service lives, the EofL fate for different materials/products, and modelling of forestry and landfill activities, to provide a level playing field for stakeholders.

Climate change and biodiversity loss are two pressing global environmental challenges that are tightly coupled to urban processes. Cities emit greenhouse gases through the consumption of materials and energy. Urban expansion encroaches on local habitats, while urban land teleconnections simultaneously degrade distant ecosystems. These processes decrease the supply of and increase the demand for ecosystem services inside and outside urban areas. Most cities are in a state of ecosystem services deficit, whereby demand exceeds local supply of ecosystem services. Methods to quantify this deficit by capturing multi-scale and multi-level ecological exchanges are incipient, leaving scholars with a partial understanding of the environmental impacts of cities. This paper deploys a novel method to simulate future urban supplies and demands of two key ecosystem services needed to combat climate change and biodiversity loss - global climate regulation and global habitat maintenance. Applying our model to eight representative European cities, we project growing ecosystems deficits (demand exceeds supply) between 8% and 214% in global climate regulation and 11% and 431% in global habitat maintenance between 2020 and 2050. Variation between cities stems from differing dietary patterns and electricity mixes, which have large implications for ecosystems outside the city. To combat these losses, urban sustainability strategies should complement local restoration with changes to local consumption alongside promoting remote ecological restoration to tackle the multi-level environmental impacts of cities.