• Energy Research

Abstract Global mean sea levels have risen at an accelerating rate over the past century in response, primarily to greenhouse gas emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. We use MAGICC7, a reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle model, to quantify how emissions traced to the Carbon Majors, the world’s 122 largest fossil fuel and cement producers, from 1854–2020 contributed to present-day surface air temperature rise, and sea level rise both historically and projected through 2300. We find that emissions traced to these industrial actors have contributed 37%–58% to present day surface air temperature rise and 24%–37% to the observed global mean sea level rise to date. Critically, these emissions through 2020 are expected to contribute an additional 0.26–0.55 m of global sea level rise through 2300. We find that attribution of past emissions to projected future sea level rise is robust regardless of how emissions trajectories evolve in the coming centuries.

Abstract Global mean sea levels have risen at an accelerating rate over the past century in response, primarily to greenhouse gas emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. We use MAGICC7, a reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle model, to quantify how emissions traced to the Carbon Majors, the world’s 122 largest fossil fuel and cement producers, from 1854–2020 contributed to present-day surface air temperature rise, and sea level rise both historically and projected through 2300. We find that emissions traced to these industrial actors have contributed 37%–58% to present day surface air temperature rise and 24%–37% to the observed global mean sea level rise to date. Critically, these emissions through 2020 are expected to contribute an additional 0.26–0.55 m of global sea level rise through 2300. We find that attribution of past emissions to projected future sea level rise is robust regardless of how emissions trajectories evolve in the coming centuries.

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Nicholls et al 2022 (under review). For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/magicc/nicholls-et-al-2022-emulator-changes. {"references": ["Nicholls et al. (under review)"]}

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Nicholls et al 2022 (under review). For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/magicc/nicholls-et-al-2022-emulator-changes. {"references": ["Nicholls et al. (under review)"]}

{"references": ["Arias PA, Bellouin N, Coppola E, Jones RG, Krinner G, Marotzke J, et al. Technical Summary. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Chen D, Rojas M, Samset BH, Cobb K, Diongue Niang A, Edwards P, et al. Framing, Context, and Methods. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Lee JY, Marotzke J, Bala G, Cao L, Corti S, Dunne JP, et al. Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Naik V, Szopa S, Adhikary B, Artaxo P, Berntsen T, Collins WD, et al. Short-Lived Climate Forcers. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Forster P, Storelvmo T, Armour K, Collins W, Dufresne JL, Frame D, et al. The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Smith C, Nicholls ZRJ, Armour K, Collins W, Forster P, Meinshausen M, et al. The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity Supplementary Material. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021."]} Repository reproducing plots and processing used in AR6 WG1 made by Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen and Jared Lewis. For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org), Jared Lewis (jared.lewis@climate-resource.com) and Malte Meinshausen (malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/magicc/ar6-wg1-plots-and-processing.

{"references": ["Arias PA, Bellouin N, Coppola E, Jones RG, Krinner G, Marotzke J, et al. Technical Summary. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Chen D, Rojas M, Samset BH, Cobb K, Diongue Niang A, Edwards P, et al. Framing, Context, and Methods. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Lee JY, Marotzke J, Bala G, Cao L, Corti S, Dunne JP, et al. Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Naik V, Szopa S, Adhikary B, Artaxo P, Berntsen T, Collins WD, et al. Short-Lived Climate Forcers. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Forster P, Storelvmo T, Armour K, Collins W, Dufresne JL, Frame D, et al. The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Smith C, Nicholls ZRJ, Armour K, Collins W, Forster P, Meinshausen M, et al. The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity Supplementary Material. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021."]} Repository reproducing plots and processing used in AR6 WG1 made by Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen and Jared Lewis. For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org), Jared Lewis (jared.lewis@climate-resource.com) and Malte Meinshausen (malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/magicc/ar6-wg1-plots-and-processing.

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002). For questions and comments about the paper, please contact Kate Dooley (kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au). For questions and comments about the code, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/znicholls/one-earth-2022. {"references": ["Dooley et al. 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002)"]}

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002). For questions and comments about the paper, please contact Kate Dooley (kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au). For questions and comments about the code, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/znicholls/one-earth-2022. {"references": ["Dooley et al. 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002)"]}