• Energy Research

Abstract. The role played by environmental factors in the functioning of forest ecosystems is relatively well known. However, the potential of the elemental composition of trees (i.e., elementomes) as a predictor of forest functioning remains elusive. We assessed the predictive power of elemental composition from different perspectives: testing whether aboveground element stocks or concentrations explain forest production and productivity (i.e., production per unit of standing biomass) better than leaf elements or environmental factors, and identifying the optimal set (combination and quantity) of elements that best predicts forest functioning. To do so, we used a forest inventory of 2000 plots in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, containing in-site information about the elementomes (C, Ca, K, Mg, N, Na, P, and S) of leaves, branches, stems, and barks, in addition to annual biomass production per organ. We found that models using leaf element stocks as predictors achieve the highest explained variation in forest production. The optimal dimensionality was achieved by combining the foliar stocks of C, Ca, K, Mg, N, and P and interactions (C × N, C × P, and N × P). Forest biomass productivity was best predicted by forest age. Hence, our results indicate that leaf element stocks are better predictors of forest biomass production than aboveground element concentrations or stocks, thus hinting at leaf measurements as critical factors for predicting variations in forest biomass production.

Abstract. Continuous atmospheric CO2 monitoring data indicate an increase in seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of CO2 exchange in northern high latitudes. The major drivers of enhanced SCA remain unclear and intensely debated with land-use change, CO2 fertilization and warming identified as likely contributors. We integrated CO2-flux data from two atmospheric inversions (consistent with atmospheric records) and from and 11 state-of-the-art land-surface models (LSMs) to evaluate the relative importance of individual contributors to trends and drivers of the SCA of CO2-fluxes for 1980−2015. The LSMs generally reproduce the latitudinal increase in SCA trends within the inversions range. Inversions and LSMs attribute SCA increase to boreal Asia and Europe due to enhanced vegetation productivity (in LSMs) and point to contrasting effects of CO2 fertilisation (positive) and warming (negative) on SCA. Our results do not support land-use change as a key contributor to the increase in SCA. The sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature in LSMs explained biases in SCA trends, which suggests SCA could help to constrain model turnover times.

Understanding the causes of the arrest of species distributions has been a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. These questions are of particular interest for trees owing to their long lifespan and sessile nature. A surge in data availability evokes a macro-ecological analysis to determine the underlying forces limiting distributions. Here we analyse the spatial distribution of >3,600 major tree species to determine geographical areas of range-edge hotspots and find drivers for their arrest. We confirmed biome edges to be strong delineators of distributions. Importantly, we identified a stronger contribution of temperate than tropical biomes to range edges, adding strength to the notion that tropical areas are centres of radiation. We subsequently identified a strong association of range-edge hotspots with steep spatial climatic gradients. We linked spatial and temporal homogeneity and high potential evapotranspiration in the tropics as the strongest predictors of this phenomenon. We propose that the poleward migration of species in light of climate change might be hindered because of steep climatic gradients.

AbstractMasting—temporally variable seed production with high spatial synchrony—is a pervasive strategy in wind‐pollinated trees that is hypothesized to be vulnerable to climate change due to its correlation with variability in abiotic conditions. Recent work suggests that aging may also have strong effects on seed production patterns of trees, but this potential confounding factor has not been considered in previous times series analysis of climate change effects. Using a 54 year dataset for seven dominant species in 17 forests across Poland, we used the proportion of seed‐producing trees (PST) to contrast the predictions of the climate change and aging hypotheses in Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Quercus petraea, and Quercus robur. Our results show that in all species, PST increased over time and that this change correlated most strongly with stand age, while the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index, a measure of drought, contributed to temporal trends in PST of F. sylvatica and Q. robur. Temporal variability of PST also increased over time in all species except P. sylvestris, while trends in temporal autocorrelation and among‐stand synchrony reflect species‐specific masting strategies. Our results suggest a pivotal role of plant ontogeny in driving not only the extent but also variability and synchrony of reproduction in temperate forest trees. In a time of increasing forest regrowth in Europe, we therefore call for increased attention to demographic effects such as aging on plant reproductive behavior, particularly in studies examining global change effects using long‐term time series data.

Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.

AbstractConcentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have continued to increase whereas atmospheric deposition of sulphur and nitrogen has declined in Europe and the USA during recent decades. Using time series of flux observations from 23 forests distributed throughout Europe and the USA, and generalised mixed models, we found that forest-level net ecosystem production and gross primary production have increased by 1% annually from 1995 to 2011. Statistical models indicated that increasing atmospheric CO2 was the most important factor driving the increasing strength of carbon sinks in these forests. We also found that the reduction of sulphur deposition in Europe and the USA lead to higher recovery in ecosystem respiration than in gross primary production, thus limiting the increase of carbon sequestration. By contrast, trends in climate and nitrogen deposition did not significantly contribute to changing carbon fluxes during the studied period. Our findings support the hypothesis of a general CO2-fertilization effect on vegetation growth and suggest that, so far unknown, sulphur deposition plays a significant role in the carbon balance of forests in industrialized regions. Our results show the need to include the effects of changing atmospheric composition, beyond CO2, to assess future dynamics of carbon-climate feedbacks not currently considered in earth system/climate modelling.