• Energy Research

AbstractClimate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Abstract Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980's and their compositional best match in the 2010’s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Breeding success of an Alpine black grouse Lyrurus tetrix population in southern Switzerland was monitored from 1981 to 2020. This long‐term dataset allows exploring relationships of reproductive rates with climate and habitat, which have shown marked changes during this period. Over the 40 years, the average elevation of black grouse breeding sites increased by around 100 m in central/southern Ticino but showed only a slight increase in northern Ticino, where black grouse occur at higher elevations. Average reproductive rates in northern Ticino remained constant throughout the study period but declined in central/southern Ticino. Relationships between reproductive success and weather as well as habitat variables were analysed with a multiple regression model. Temperature during the early chick‐rearing phase and the time of egg‐laying was positively correlated with reproductive rate. Correlations between reproductive rates and precipitation were less clear, and only small proportions of the variance in reproductive rates could be explained by precipitation. Brush forest explained the greatest amount of variation in reproductive rate (6.2%). Forest, alpine agricultural areas and unproductive vegetation all showed a positive relationship with reproductive rate, but the proportion of the variance explained was small. Year (5.1%) and its interaction with region (2.3%) explained considerable amounts of the variance. While in northern Ticino reproductive success did not show a negative trend when correcting for weather and habitat changes, there remained a negative trend over the years in central/southern Ticino. Despite the positive correlations of reproductive rate with temperature, increasing temperatures do not appear to have improved reproductive success, likely as a result of habitat changes that forced black grouse towards higher elevations. Changes in reproductive success were limited to the southern region, indicating deteriorating conditions at the edge of the distribution range.

Abstract Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by global change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, elevation, and temperature gradients, can influence a community's ability to shift. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in global change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980's and their nearest compositional equivalent in the 2010’s and modelled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coasts and elevation having the strongest influence. Combining ecological barriers and community shift projections can identify ecological corridors that facilitate shifts of species and communities under global change.

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Le fichier de données source contient des données pour tracer les figures 1,2 et 3 et les figures supplémentaires S1, S3 à S12 et le tableau supplémentaire S1. Les données supplémentaires contiennent les données sur les caractères de l'espèce. Des références pour les sources de données peuvent être trouvées dans la feuille séparée. Les traits à noter ont été rassemblés pour 378 espèces d'oiseaux nicheurs européens, mais les données sur l'étendue de l'habitat n'étaient disponibles que pour 336 espèces. Les sources de données sur les espèces se trouvent dans l'onglet Références. El archivo de datos de origen contiene datos para trazar las Figuras 1,2 y 3, y las Figuras Complementarias S1, S3 -S12 y la Tabla Complementaria S1. Los datos complementarios contienen datos de rasgos de las especies. Las referencias de las fuentes de datos se pueden encontrar en la hoja separada. Los rasgos de la nota se recopilaron para 378 especies de aves reproductoras europeas, pero los datos de amplitud del hábitat solo estaban disponibles para 336 especies. Las fuentes de datos de especies se pueden encontrar en la pestaña Referencias. Source data file contains data for plotting Figures 1,2, and 3, and Supplementary Figures S1, S3 -S12, and Supplementary Table S1. Supplementary data contains species' trait data. References for data sources can be found in the separate sheet. Note traits were collated for 378 species of European breeding bird, but habitat breadth data were only available for 336 species. Sources of species data can be found in the References tab. يحتوي ملف البيانات المصدر على بيانات لرسم الأشكال 1 و 2 و 3 والأشكال التكميلية S1 و S3 - S12 والجدول التكميلي S1. تحتوي البيانات التكميلية على بيانات سمات الأنواع. يمكن العثور على مراجع لمصادر البيانات في الورقة المنفصلة. تم جمع سمات الملاحظة لـ 378 نوعًا من طيور التكاثر الأوروبية، لكن بيانات اتساع الموائل كانت متاحة فقط لـ 336 نوعًا. يمكن العثور على مصادر بيانات الأنواع في علامة التبويب المراجع.

Abstract Breeding success of an Alpine black grouse Lyrurus tetrix population in southern Switzerland was monitored from 1981 to 2020. This long-term dataset allows explor-ing relationships of reproductive rates with climate and habitat, which have shown marked changes during this period. Over the 40 years, the average elevation of black grouse breeding sites increased by around 100 m in central/southern Ticino but showed only a slight increase in northern Ticino, where black grouse occur at higher elevations. Average reproductive rates in northern Ticino remained constant through-out the study period but declined in central/southern Ticino. Relationships between reproductive success and weather as well as habitat variables were analysed with a mul-tiple regression model. Temperature during the early chick-rearing phase and the time of egg-laying was positively correlated with reproductive rate. Correlations between reproductive rates and precipitation were less clear, and only small proportions of the variance in reproductive rates could be explained by precipitation. Brush forest explained the greatest amount of variation in reproductive rate (6.2%). Forest, alpine agricultural areas and unproductive vegetation all showed a positive relationship with reproductive rate, but the proportion of the variance explained was small. Year (5.1%) and its interaction with region (2.3%) explained considerable amounts of the variance. While in northern Ticino reproductive success did not show a negative trend when correcting for weather and habitat changes, there remained a negative trend over the years in central/southern Ticino. Despite the positive correlations of reproductive rate with temperature, increasing temperatures do not appear to have improved reproduc-tive success, likely as a result of habitat changes that forced black grouse towards higher elevations. Changes in reproductive success were limited to the southern region, indi-cating deteriorating conditions at the edge of the distribution range.