• Energy Research

AbstractOutput from an earth system model is paired with a size‐based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size‐based food web model includes linkages between two size‐structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top‐down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate‐induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses.

Feeding a growing, increasingly affluent population while limiting environmental pressures of food production is a central challenge for society. Understanding the location and magnitude of food production is key to addressing this challenge because pressures vary substantially across food production types. Applying data and models from life cycle assessment with the methodologies for mapping cumulative environmental impacts of human activities (hereafter cumulative impact mapping) provides a powerful approach to spatially map the cumulative environmental pressure of food production in a way that is consistent and comprehensive across food types. However, these methodologies have yet to be combined. By synthesizing life cycle assessment and cumulative impact mapping methodologies, we provide guidance for comprehensively and cumulatively mapping the environmental pressures (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, spatial occupancy, and freshwater use) associated with food production systems. This spatial approach enables quantification of current and potential future environmental pressures, which is needed for decision makers to create more sustainable food policies and practices.

AbstractClimate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Despite their critical role as the main energy pathway between phytoplankton and fish, the functional complexity of zooplankton is typically poorly resolved in marine ecosystem models. Trait-based approaches-where zooplankton are represented with functional traits such as body size-could help improve the resolution of zooplankton in marine ecosystem models and their role in trophic transfer and carbon sequestration. Here, we present the Zooplankton Model of Size Spectra version 2 (ZooMSSv2), a functional size-spectrum model that resolves nine major zooplankton functional groups (heterotrophic flagellates, heterotrophic ciliates, larvaceans, omnivorous copepods, carnivorous copepods, chaetognaths, euphausiids, salps and jellyfish). Each group is represented by the functional traits of body size, size-based feeding characteristics and carbon content. The model is run globally at 5° resolution to steady-state using long-term average temperature and chlorophyll a for each grid-cell. Zooplankton community composition emerges based on the relative fitness of the different groups. Emergent steady-state patterns of global zooplankton abundance, biomass and growth rates agree well with empirical data, and the model is robust to changes in the boundary conditions of the zooplankton. We use the model to consider the role of the zooplankton groups in supporting higher trophic levels, by exploring the sensitivity of steady-state fish biomass to the removal of individual zooplankton groups across the global ocean. Our model shows zooplankton play a key role in supporting fish biomass in the global ocean. For example, the removal of euphausiids or omnivorous copepods caused fish biomass to decrease by up to 80%. By contrast, the removal of carnivorous copepods caused fish biomass to increase by up to 75%. Our results suggest that including zooplankton complexity in ecosystem models could be key to better understanding the distribution of fish biomass and trophic efficiency across the global ocean.

AbstractClimate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.

AbstractAquaculture policy often promotes production of low‐trophic level species for sustainable industry growth. Yet, the application of the trophic level concept to aquaculture is complex, and its value for assessing sustainability is further complicated by continual reformulation of feeds. The majority of fed farmed fish and invertebrate species are produced using human‐made compound feeds that can differ markedly from the diet of the same species in the wild and continue to change in composition. Using data on aquaculture feeds, we show that technical advances have substantially decreased the mean effective trophic level of farmed species, such as salmon (mean TL = 3.48 to 2.42) and tilapia (2.32 to 2.06), from 1995 to 2015. As farmed species diverge in effective trophic level from their wild counterparts, they are coalescing at a similar effective trophic level due to standardisation of feeds. This pattern blurs the interpretation of trophic level in aquaculture because it can no longer be viewed as a trait of the farmed species, but rather is a dynamic feature of the production system. Guidance based on wild trophic position or historical resource use is therefore misleading. Effective aquaculture policy needs to avoid overly simplistic sustainability indicators such as trophic level. Instead, employing empirically derived metrics based on the specific farmed properties of species groups, management techniques and advances in feed formulation will be crucial for achieving truly sustainable options for farmed seafood.