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Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

AbstractClimate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.
- Spanish National Research Council Spain
- University of Tasmania Australia
- University of British Columbia Canada
- Dalhousie University Canada
- University of East Anglia United Kingdom
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, Aquatic Organisms, marine animal biomass, global ecosystem models, Climate Change, Oceans and Seas, ocean basins, future projection, coastal, Marine ecosystem models, Models, Biological, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Ensemble modeling, Climate change, Animals, Body Size, Biomass, uncertainty, Marine animal biomass, biogeography, Ecosystem, global ocean, projections, model, Uncertainty, Ocean basins, //metadata.un.org/sdg/13 [http], Future projection, oxygen limitation, communities, model intercomparison, climate change, fisheries, marine ecosystem models, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, ensemble modeling, Model intercomparison, fisheries projections
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, Aquatic Organisms, marine animal biomass, global ecosystem models, Climate Change, Oceans and Seas, ocean basins, future projection, coastal, Marine ecosystem models, Models, Biological, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Ensemble modeling, Climate change, Animals, Body Size, Biomass, uncertainty, Marine animal biomass, biogeography, Ecosystem, global ocean, projections, model, Uncertainty, Ocean basins, //metadata.un.org/sdg/13 [http], Future projection, oxygen limitation, communities, model intercomparison, climate change, fisheries, marine ecosystem models, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, ensemble modeling, Model intercomparison, fisheries projections
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).153 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% visibility views 11 download downloads 365 - 11views365downloads
Data source Views Downloads DIGITAL.CSIC 11 365


