• Energy Research

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Climate scenarios for northern Central Europe project rising temperatures and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts but also a shift in precipitation pattern with more humid winters. This in turn may result in soil waterlogging during the following spring, leading to increasing stress for trees growing on hydric sites. The influence of waterlogging on growth of common beech and pedunculate oak has been studied intensively on seedlings under experimental conditions. However, the question remains whether results of these studies can be transferred to mature trees growing under natural conditions. To test this, we investigated general growth patterns and climate-growth relationships in four mature stands of beech and oak growing on hydromorphic soils (Stagnosols) in northeast Germany using dendrochronological methods. Our results confirmed the expected tolerance of oak to strong water-level fluctuations. Neither extremely wet conditions during spring nor summer droughts significantly affected its radial growth. Oak growth responded positively to warmer temperatures during previous year October and March of the current year of ring formation. Contrary to our expectations, also beech showed relatively low sensitivity to periods of high soil water saturation. Instead, summer drought turned out to be the main climatic factor influencing ring width of beech even under the specific periodically wet soil conditions of our study. This became evident from general climate-growth correlations over the last century as well as from discontinuous (pointer year) analysis with summer drought being significantly correlated to the occurrence of growth depressions. As ring width of the two species is affected by differing climate parameters, species-specific chronologies show no coherence in high-frequency variations even for trees growing in close proximity. We assume differences in rooting depth as the main reason for the differing growth patterns and climate correlations of the two species under study. Our results indicate that under the projected future climate scenarios, beech may suffer from increasing drought stress even on hydromorphic soils. Oak might be able to maintain a sufficient hydraulic status during summer droughts by reaching water in deeper soil strata with its root system. Wet phases with waterlogged soil conditions during spring or summer appear to have only a little direct influence on radial growth of both species.

AbstractClimate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of drought events in many boreal forests. Trees are sessile organisms with a long generation time, which makes them vulnerable to fast climate change and hinders fast adaptations. Therefore, it is important to know how forests cope with drought stress and to explore the genetic basis of these reactions. We investigated three natural populations of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska, located at one drought‐limited and two cold‐limited treelines with a paired plot design of one forest and one treeline plot. We obtained individual increment cores from 458 trees and climate data to assess dendrophenotypes, in particular the growth reaction to drought stress. To explore the genetic basis of these dendrophenotypes, we genotyped the individual trees at 3000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate genes and performed genotype–phenotype association analysis using linear mixed models and Bayesian sparse linear mixed models. Growth reaction to drought stress differed in contrasting treeline populations. Therefore, the populations are likely to be unevenly affected by climate change. We identified 40 genes associated with dendrophenotypic traits that differed among the treeline populations. Most genes were identified in the drought‐limited site, indicating comparatively strong selection pressure of drought‐tolerant phenotypes. Contrasting patterns of drought‐associated genes among sampled sites and in comparison to Canadian populations in a previous study suggest that drought adaptation acts on a local scale. Our results highlight genes that are associated with wood traits which in turn are critical for the establishment and persistence of future forests under climate change.

Abstract Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra ecosystems. Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of investigation for future research. Satellite observations from around the circumpolar Arctic, showing increased productivity, measured as changes in ‘greenness’, have coincided with a general rise in high-latitude air temperatures and have been partly attributed to increases in shrub cover. Studies indicate that warming temperatures, changes in snow cover, altered disturbance regimes as a result of permafrost thaw, tundra fires, and anthropogenic activities or changes in herbivory intensity are all contributing to observed changes in shrub abundance. A large-scale increase in shrub cover will change the structure of tundra ecosystems and alter energy fluxes, regional climate, soil–atmosphere exchange of water, carbon and nutrients, and ecological interactions between species. In order to project future rates of shrub expansion and understand the feedbacks to ecosystem and climate processes, future research should investigate the species or trait-specific responses of shrubs to climate change including: (1) the temperature sensitivity of shrub growth, (2) factors controlling the recruitment of new individuals, and (3) the relative influence of the positive and negative feedbacks involved in shrub expansion.

AbstractClimate warming is expected to positively alter upward and poleward treelines which are controlled by low temperature and a short growing season. Despite the importance of treelines as a bioassay of climate change, a global field assessment and posterior forecasting of tree growth at annual scales is lacking. Using annually resolved tree‐ring data located across Eurasia and the Americas, we quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century. We then tested whether this temperature–growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the 20th century, growth enhancements were common in most sites, and temperature and growth showed positive trends. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and growth trends was contingent on tree age suggesting biogeographic patterns in treeline growth are contingent on local factors besides climate warming. Simulations forecast temperature–growth decoupling during the 21st century. The growing season at treeline is projected to lengthen and growth rates would increase and become less dependent on temperature rise. These forecasts illustrate how growth may decouple from climate warming in cold regions and near the margins of tree existence. Such projected temperature–growth decoupling could impact ecosystem processes in mountain and polar biomes, with feedbacks on climate warming.

ABSTRACTWith ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree‐ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species‐dependent and less well‐known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan‐European tree‐ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed‐effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate‐dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021–2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952–2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38–0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2‐4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%–18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%–21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate‐driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%–24% growth increase in the high‐elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (−10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water‐limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.