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Abstract Rising global temperatures force many species to shift their distribution ranges. However, whether or not (and how fast) such range shifts occur depends on species' dispersal capacities. In most ecological studies, dispersal‐related traits (such as the wing size or wing loading in insects) are treated as fixed, species‐specific characteristics, ignoring the important role of phenotypic plasticity during insect development. We tested the hypothesis that dispersal‐related traits themselves vary in dependence of ambient environmental conditions (temperature regimes, discharge patterns and biotic interactions during individual development). We collected data over 8 years from a natural population of the crane fly Tipula maxima in central Germany. Using linear mixed‐effect models, we analysed how phenotypic traits, phenological characteristics and population densities are affected by environmental conditions during the preceding 3, 6 and 12 months. We found a moderate (5.6%) increase in wing length per 1°C increase in mean annual temperatures during the previous year. At the same time, body weight increased by as much as 17.8% in females and 26.9% in males per 1°C, likely driven by increased habitat productivity, which resulted in a 16.4% (female) and 19.3% (male) increased wing loading. We further found a shorter, more synchronized emergence period (i.e. a narrower time frame for dispersal) with increasing temperatures. Altogether, our results suggest that dispersal abilities of T. maxima were negatively affected by elevated temperatures, and we discuss how similar patterns might affect the persistence of populations of other aquatic insects, especially stenoecious taxa with narrow distribution ranges. Our study calls for integration of information on temperature‐induced phenotypic plasticity of dispersal‐related traits into models forecasting range shifts in the face of climate change. Furthermore, the patterns reported here are likely to affect metapopulation dynamics of aquatic insects under climate change conditions and may contribute to the ongoing decline of insect biomass and diversity.

AbstractResearch in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1‐km2resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1‐km2pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse‐grained air temperature estimates from ERA5‐Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome‐specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near‐surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil‐related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

AbstractThe ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long‐term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species‐level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42‐year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short‐term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long‐term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.

AbstractCurrent analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long‐term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate‐forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold‐air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free‐air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near‐surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near‐surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.