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Cet article présente les résultats de notre cinquième exercice annuel d'analyse de l'horizon, qui vise à identifier les sujets qui peuvent de plus en plus affecter la conservation de la diversité biologique, mais qui n'ont pas encore été largement pris en compte. Une équipe de scanners d'horizon professionnels, de chercheurs, de praticiens et d'un journaliste a identifié 15 sujets qui ont été identifiés via un processus itératif de type Delphi. Les 15 sujets comprennent un krach financier induit par le marché du carbone, l'expansion géographique rapide de la culture des macroalgues, le contrôle génétique des espèces invasives, la thérapie probiotique pour les amphibiens et une maladie fongique émergente des serpents. Este documento presenta el resultado de nuestro quinto ejercicio anual de exploración del horizonte, que tiene como objetivo identificar temas que pueden afectar cada vez más a la protección de la diversidad biológica, pero que aún no se han considerado ampliamente. Un equipo de escáneres profesionales de horizontes, investigadores, profesionales y un periodista identificaron 15 temas que se identificaron a través de un proceso iterativo similar a Delphi. Los 15 temas incluyen un colapso financiero inducido por el mercado de carbono, la rápida expansión geográfica del cultivo de macroalgas, el control genético de especies invasoras, la terapia probiótica para anfibios y una enfermedad fúngica emergente de serpientes. This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease. تعرض هذه الورقة مخرجات تمريننا السنوي الخامس لمسح الآفاق، والذي يهدف إلى تحديد الموضوعات التي قد تؤثر بشكل متزايد على الحفاظ على التنوع البيولوجي، ولكن لم يتم النظر فيها على نطاق واسع بعد. حدد فريق من ماسحات الأفق المهنية والباحثين والممارسين وصحفي 15 موضوعًا تم تحديدها من خلال عملية تكرارية تشبه عملية دلفي. تشمل الموضوعات الخمسة عشر الانهيار المالي الناجم عن سوق الكربون، والتوسع الجغرافي السريع لزراعة الطحالب الكبيرة، والتحكم الوراثي في الأنواع الغازية، والعلاج بالبروبيوتيك للبرمائيات، ومرض فطريات الثعابين الناشئة.

Climate change has ecosystem-wide cascading effects. Little is known, however, about the resilience of Arctic marine ecosystems to environmental change. Here we quantify and compare large-scale patterns in rocky intertidal biomass, coverage and zonation in six regions along a north-south gradient of temperature and ice conditions in West Greenland (60-72°N). We related the level and variation in assemblage composition, biomass and coverage to latitudinal-scale environmental drivers. Across all latitudes, the intertidal assemblage was dominated by a core of stress-tolerant foundation species that constituted >95% of the biomass. Hence, canopy-forming macroalgae, represented by Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens and F. vesiculosus and, up to 69 °N, also Ascophyllum nodosum, together with Semibalanus balanoides, occupied >70% of the vertical tidal range in all regions. Thus, a similar functional assemblage composition occurred across regions, and no latitudinal depression was observed. The most conspicuous difference in species composition from south to north was that three common species (the macroalgae Ascophyllum nodosum, the amphipod Gammarus setosus and the gastropod Littorina obtusata) disappeared from the mid-intertidal, although at different latitudes. There were no significant relationships between assemblage metrics and air temperature or sea ice coverage as obtained from weather stations and satellites, respectively. Although the mean biomass decreased >50% from south to north, local biomass in excess of 10 000 g ww m-2 was found even at the northernmost site, demonstrating the patchiness of this habitat and the effect of small-scale variation in environmental characteristics. Hence, using the latitudinal gradient in a space-for-time substitution, our results suggest that while climate modification may lead to an overall increase in the intertidal biomass in north Greenland, it is unlikely to drive dramatic functional changes in ecosystem structure in the near future. Our dataset provides an important baseline for future studies to verify these predictions for Greenlands intertidal zone.

AbstractWe present the first estimate of green snow algae community biomass and distribution along the Antarctic Peninsula. Sentinel 2 imagery supported by two field campaigns revealed 1679 snow algae blooms, seasonally covering 1.95 × 106 m2 and equating to 1.3 × 103 tonnes total dry biomass. Ecosystem range is limited to areas with average positive summer temperatures, and distribution strongly influenced by marine nutrient inputs, with 60% of blooms less than 5 km from a penguin colony. A warming Antarctica may lose a majority of the 62% of blooms occupying small, low-lying islands with no high ground for range expansion. However, bloom area and elevation were observed to increase at lower latitudes, suggesting that parallel expansion of bloom area on larger landmasses, close to bird or seal colonies, is likely. This increase is predicted to outweigh biomass lost from small islands, resulting in a net increase in snow algae extent and biomass as the Peninsula warms.