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Climate change is rapidly altering the distributions of species and the composition of communities that have evolved over evolutionary time scales. Quantifying changes in species distributions and abundance in response to warming is critical to understanding how these changes modify structure, function and services provided by recipient communities. Changes in size structure of warm- and cool-affiliated species is an important indicator for climate-driven species redistributions over time, and has received relatively little attention. We quantified changes in length and biomass distributions of 25 species of Labridae fishes from 112 sites spanning 2000 km across a warm-cool temperate transition zone in south Western Australia. Length and biomass data were collected in 2005-2006 and 2014-2015 using diver operated stereo-video. In the decade between sampling events, south Western Australia experienced an extreme marine heatwave followed by repeated summers of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. Biomass of tropical and subtropical species increased 10-fold and 3-fold, respectively, between 2006 and 2015, whereas temperate species biomass remained relatively stable. In 2014-2015, the abundance and biomass of tropical species (e.g. Scarus ghobban) increased in the warmest regions and established multiple size classes poleward of their recorded 2005-2006 distributions, suggesting successful overwintering and recruitment where viable populations were not recorded in 2005-2006. Large, slow-growing temperate species such as Achoerodus gouldii and Bodianus frenchii decreased in small and medium size classes in warm regions. Our findings report a substantial change in the size structure and composition of labrid assemblages over a decade of climatic variability.

AbstractThe Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.

AbstractGenetic diversity confers adaptive capacity to populations under changing conditions but its role in mediating impacts of climate change remains unresolved for most ecosystems. This lack of knowledge is particularly acute for foundation species, where impacts may cascade throughout entire ecosystems. We combined population genetics with eco-physiological and ecological field experiments to explore relationships among latitudinal patterns in genetic diversity, physiology and resilience of a kelp ecosystem to climate stress. A subsequent ‘natural experiment’ illustrated the possible influence of latitudinal patterns of genetic diversity on ecosystem vulnerability to an extreme climatic perturbation (marine heatwave). There were strong relationships between physiological versatility, ecological resilience and genetic diversity of kelp forests across latitudes, and genetic diversity consistently outperformed other explanatory variables in contributing to the response of kelp forests to the marine heatwave. Population performance and vulnerability to a severe climatic event were thus strongly related to latitudinal patterns in genetic diversity, with the heatwave extirpating forests with low genetic diversity. Where foundation species control ecological structure and function, impacts of climatic stress can cascade through the ecosystem and, consequently, genetic diversity could contribute to ecosystem vulnerability to climate change.

Accurately forecasting the response of global biota to warming is a fundamental challenge for ecology in the Anthropocene. Within-species variation in thermal sensitivity, caused by phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of thermal limits, is often overlooked in assessments of species responses to warming. Despite this, implicit assumptions of thermal niche conservatism or adaptation and plasticity at the species level permeate the literature with potentially important implications for predictions of warming impacts at the population level. Here we review how these attributes interact with the spatial and temporal context of ocean warming to influence the vulnerability of marine organisms. We identify a broad spectrum of thermal sensitivities among marine organisms, particularly in central and cool-edge populations of species distributions. These are characterized by generally low sensitivity in organisms with conserved thermal niches, to high sensitivity for organisms with locally adapted thermal niches. Important differences in thermal sensitivity among marine taxa suggest that warming could adversely affect benthic primary producers sooner than less vulnerable higher trophic groups. Embracing the spatial, temporal and biological context of within-species variation in thermal physiology helps explain observed impacts of ocean warming and can improve forecasts of climate change vulnerability in marine systems.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen’.

No turning back? Ecosystems over time have endured much disturbance, yet they tend to remain intact, a characteristic we call resilience. Though many systems have been lost and destroyed, for systems that remain physically intact, there is debate as to whether changing temperatures will result in shifts or collapses. Wernburg et al. show that extreme warming of a temperate kelp forest off Australia resulted not only in its collapse, but also in a shift in community composition that brought about an increase in herbivorous tropical fishes that prevent the reestablishment of kelp. Thus, many systems may not be resilient to the rapid climate change that we face. Science , this issue p. 169