• Energy Research

L'impact du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau est considérable pour l'élaboration des politiques futures.L' impact du changement climatique sur le bassin irrigué de l'Indus est également important car il se produit dans le bassin supérieur de l'Indus.Dans le cycle hydrologique, les précipitations sont la composante la plus importante et contribuent de manière significative aux besoins en eau des cultures.La recharge dans l'aquifère n'est pas un phénomène caché pendant la période de mousson dans le bassin irrigué de l'Indus.L' impact du changement climatique sur les précipitations a été étudié à l'aide du modèle climatique Hadley version 3 (HadCM3) .HadCM3 fournit le scénario A2 et B2 et son impact sur les futurs paramètres climatiques. Le modèle statistique de réduction d'échelle (SDSM) a été utilisé pour réduire les précipitations dans la zone sélectionnée de la zone d'irrigation de Faisalabad. Les prédicteurs du NCEP ont été utilisés pour l'évaluation des données réduites à l'aide du SDSM.La variation en pourcentage des précipitations a été observée pour le milieu du siècle (2040-2069) par rapport à la période de référence. Les résultats ont révélé l'augmentation des précipitations pendant la saison Rabi. Bien qu'une diminution significative des précipitations ait été observée pendant la saison de la mousson. Pourcentage maximal de diminution des précipitations a été observée à 6,42 % et 61,9 % au mois de novembre dans les scénarios A2 et B2, respectivement. De même, une augmentation maximale en pourcentage des précipitations a été observée à 10,4,6 % et 101,4 % au mois de novembre dans les scénarios A2 et B2, respectivement. Une diminution des précipitations a été observée dans les mois de mousson et en avril. Alors que l'augmentation des précipitations a été observée dans la période restante. El impacto del cambio climático en los recursos hídricos es considerable para la futura formulación de políticas. El impacto del cambio climático en la cuenca regada del Indo también es significativo, ya que se encuentra en la cuenca alta del Indo. En el ciclo hidrológico, la precipitación es el componente más importante y tiene una contribución significativa en el requisito de agua del cultivo. La recarga en el acuífero no es un fenómeno oculto durante el período monzónico en la cuenca regada del Indo. El impacto del cambio climático en las precipitaciones se estudió utilizando el modelo climático de Hadley versión 3 (HadCM3).HadCM3 proporciona el escenario A2 y B2 y su impacto en los parámetros climáticos futuros. Se utilizó el modelo de reducción de escala estadística (SDSM) para reducir la precipitación en el área seleccionada de la zona de riego de Faisalabad. Se utilizaron predictores NCEP para la evaluación de los datos reducidos utilizando SDSM. Se observó un cambio porcentual en la precipitación para mediados de siglo (2040-2069) en comparación con el período base. Los resultados revelaron el aumento de la precipitación durante la temporada de Rabi. Mientras que se observó una disminución significativa en la precipitación durante la temporada de monzones. Disminución porcentual máxima en la precipitación se observó 6.42% y 61.9% en el mes de noviembre bajo los escenarios A2 y B2, respectivamente. De manera similar, el aumento porcentual máximo en la precipitación se observó 10.4.6% y 101.4% en el mes de noviembre bajo los escenarios A2 y B2, respectivamente. La disminución en la precipitación se observó en los meses del monzón y en abril. Mientras que el aumento en la precipitación se observó en el período restante. Impact of climate change on the water resources is considerable for the future policy making.Climate change impact on the irrigated Indus basin is also significant as it is in the upper Indus basin.In hydrological cycle, rainfall is the most important component and has significant contribution in the crop water requirement.Recharge in the aquifer is not a hidden phenomenon during the monsoon period in the irrigated Indus basin.Impact of climate change on the rainfall was studied using the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3).HadCM3 provides the A2 and B2 scenario and its impact on the future climatic parameters.Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used for downscaling the rainfall in the selected area of the Faisalabad irrigation zone.NCEP predictors was used for the assessment of the downscaled data using SDSM.Percentage change in the rainfall was observed for the midcentury (2040-2069) as compared to the base period .Results reveled the increase in the rainfall during the Rabi season.While significant decrease in the rainfall was observed during the monsoon season.Maximum percentage decrease in the rainfall was observed 6.42% and 61.9% in the month of November under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively.Similarly, maximum percentage increase in the rainfall was observed 10.4.6% and 101.4% in the month of November under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively.Decrease in the rainfall was observed in the months of monsoon and in April.While the increase in the rainfall was observed in the remaining period. تأثير تغير المناخ على الموارد المائية كبير لصنع السياسات المستقبلية. تأثير تغير المناخ على حوض السند المروي مهم أيضًا كما هو الحال في حوض السند العلوي. في الدورة الهيدرولوجية، يعد هطول الأمطار أهم مكون وله مساهمة كبيرة في متطلبات مياه المحاصيل. إعادة الشحن في طبقة المياه الجوفية ليست ظاهرة خفية خلال فترة الرياح الموسمية في حوض السند المروي. تمت دراسة تأثير تغير المناخ على هطول الأمطار باستخدام نموذج هادلي للمناخ الإصدار 3 (HadCM3). يوفر HadCM3 سيناريو A2 و B2 وتأثيره على المعلمات المناخية المستقبلية. تم استخدام نموذج تقليص النطاق الإحصائي (SDSM) لتقليص نطاق هطول الأمطار في المنطقة المحددة من منطقة الري في فيصل آباد. تم استخدام تنبؤات CCEP لتقييم البيانات المصغرة باستخدام SDSM. لوحظ تغير النسبة المئوية في هطول الأمطار في منتصف القرن (2040-2069) مقارنة بفترة الأساس. كشفت النتائج عن الزيادة في هطول الأمطار خلال موسم ربيع. في حين لوحظ انخفاض كبير في هطول الأمطار خلال موسم الرياح الموسمية. الحد الأقصى للنسبة المئوية للانخفاض في هطول الأمطار لوحظ 6.42 ٪ و 61.9 ٪ في شهر نوفمبر في ظل السيناريوهات A2 و B2، على التوالي. وبالمثل، لوحظت زيادة النسبة المئوية القصوى في هطول الأمطار بنسبة 10.4.6 ٪ و 101.4 ٪ في شهر نوفمبر في ظل السيناريوهات A2 و B2، على التوالي. لوحظ انخفاض في هطول الأمطار في أشهر الرياح الموسمية وفي أبريل. بينما لوحظت الزيادة في هطول الأمطار في الفترة المتبقية.

Spatio-temporal distribution of irrigation water components was evaluated at the canal command area in Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) by using a remote sensing-based geo-informatics approach. Satellite-derived MODIS product-based Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used for the estimation of the actual evapotranspiration (ETa). The ground data-based advection aridity method (AA) was used to calibrate and validate the model. Statistical analysis of the SEBAL based ETa and AA shows the mean values of 87.1 mm and 47.9 mm during Kharif season (May–November) and 100 mm and 77 mm during the Rabi Season (December–April). Mean NSEs of 0.72 and 0.85 and RMSEs 34.9 and 5.76 during the Kharif and the Rabi seasons were observed for ETa and AA, respectively. Rainfall data were calibrated with the point observatory data of the metrological stations. The average annual ETa was found 899 mm for defined four cropping years (2011–2012 to 2014–2015) with the minimum average value of 63.3 mm in January and the maximum average value of 110.6 mm in August. Average of the sum of net canal water use (NCWU) and rainfall during the study period of four years was 548 mm (36% of ETa). Seasonal analysis revealed 39% and 61% of groundwater extraction proportion during Rabi and Kharif seasons, dependent upon the occurrence of rainfall and crop phenology. Overall, the results provide insight into the interrelationships between key water resources management components and the variation of these through time, offering information to improve the strategic planning and management of available water resources in this region.

This research investigated the best economically viable power source with the least environmental impact and socially acceptable for the maize crop. Maize is one of the key economic crops in Pakistan. Solar-, electric-, and diesel-powered drip irrigation systems (DIS) were considered for comparative study. We selected 45 sites of maize crop to collect the data, with an area of 1–3 ha, from three divisions. For economic viability, the benefit:cost ratio, life cycle cost, and payback period were calculated, and CO2 emissions were calculated to assess the environmental impact. The SPSS model was used for one-way ANOVA followed by post hoc and chi-squared tests to check the significance level between all power sources. It was found that the B-C of electric power, solar, and diesel drip irrigation systems was 1.65, 1.52, and 1.44, respectively. Solar, diesel, and electricity power DIS have CO2 emissions of 0.02, 0.730, and 1.106 tons/ha, respectively. The research concludes that solar power and electric power are the best sources for the environment and economically, respectively. It is recommended that solar power DIS be subsidized, which will help to lower CO2 emissions and reduce the electricity shortfall in Pakistan.

Impact assessments on climate change are essential for the evaluation and management of irrigation water in farming practices in semi-arid environments. This study was conducted to evaluate climate change impacts on water productivity of maize in farming practices in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) system. Two fields of maize were selected and monitored to calibrate and validate the model. A water productivity analysis was performed using the Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model. Baseline climate data (1980–2010) for the study site were acquired from the weather observatory of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Future climate change data were acquired from the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). Statistical downscaling was performed using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3. The water productivity assessment was performed for the midcentury (2040–2069) scenario. The maximum increase in the average maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) was found in the month of July under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The scenarios show a projected increase of 2.8 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under A2 as well as 2.7 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under B2 for the midcentury. Similarly, climate change scenarios showed that temperature is projected to decrease, with the average minimum and maximum temperatures of 7.4 and 6.4 °C under the A2 scenario and 7.7 and 6.8 °C under the B2 scenario in the middle of the century, respectively. However, the highest precipitation will decrease by 56 mm under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the middle of the century for the month of September. The input and output data of the SWAP model were processed in R programming for the easy working of the model. The negative impact of climate change was found under the A2 and B2 scenarios during the midcentury. The maximum decreases in Potential Water Productivity (WPET) and Actual Water Productivity (WPAI) from the baseline period to the midcentury scenario of 1.1 to 0.85 kgm−3 and 0.7 to 0.56 kgm−3 were found under the B2 scenario. Evaluation of irrigation practices directs the water managers in making suitable water management decisions for the improvement of water productivity in the changing climate.

Urban aquifers are experiencing increasing pressures from climate change, land-use change, and abstraction, consequently, altering groundwater levels and threatening sustainable water availability, consumption, and utilization. Sustainability in such areas requires the adaptation of groundwater resources to these stressors. Consequently, this research made projections about future climate, land use, and abstraction, examines how these drives will affect groundwater levels, and then proposes adaptation strategies to reduce the impact on Lahore’s groundwater resources. The objectives are achieved using an integrated modeling framework involving applications of Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models. The results indicated a projected rise in Tmin by ~2.03 °C and Tmax by ~1.13 °C by 2100 under medium (RCP 4.5) and high-end (RCP 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Future precipitation changes for mid, near and far periods are projected to be −1.0%, 25%, and 24.5% under RCP4.5, and −17.5%, 27.5%, and 29.0% under RCP8.5, respectively. The built-up area in the Lahore division will dominate agricultural land in the future with an expansion from 965 m2 to 3716 km2 by the year 2100 under R1S1 (R2S2) land-use change scenarios (significant at p = 5%). The future population of the Lahore division will increase from 6.4 M to 24.6 M (28.7 M) by the year 2100 under SSP1 (SSP3) scenarios (significant at p = 5%). Groundwater level in bult-up areas will be projected to decline from 185 m to 125 m by 2100 due to increasing groundwater abstraction and expansion in the impermeable surface under all scenarios. In contrast, agricultural areas show a fluctuating trend with a slight increase in groundwater level due to decreasing abstraction and multiple recharge sources under combined scenarios. The results of this study can be a way forward for groundwater experts and related institutions to understand the potential situation of groundwater resources in the Lahore division and implement adaptation strategies to counteract diminishing groundwater resources.

Salinity is the most important factor of consideration for the water management policies. The water availability from the rootzone reduced with the increase in the soil salinity due to the increase in the osmatic pressure. In Pakistan, salinity is the major threat to the agriculture land due to the tradition practices of irrigation and extensive utilization of the groundwater to meet the cope the irrigation water requirement of high intensity cropping system. The salinity impact is spatially variable on the canal commands area of the irrigation system. There is dire need to map the spatially distributed soil salinity with the high resolution. Landsat satellite imagery provides an opportunity to have 30m pixel information in seven spectral wavelength ranges. In this study, the soil salinity mapping was performed using pixel information on visible and infrared bands for 2015. These bands were also used to infer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The raw digital numbers were converted into soil salinity information. The accuracy assessment was carried out using ground trothing information obtained using the error matrix method. Four major classes of non-saline, marginal saline, moderate saline and strongly, saline area was mapped. The overall accuracy of the classified map was found 83%. These maps can be helpful to delineate hot spots with severe problem of soil salinity in order to prepare reciprocate measures for improvement.

Aujourd'hui, les pays en développement sont confrontés à de multiples types de crises, en particulier en ce qui concerne les crises énergétiques. De plus, l'énergie a une grande valeur parce qu'elle est très essentielle pour le développement de toute société ainsi que pour un niveau de vie adéquat, chaque pays a besoin d'énergie, c'est-à-dire d'électricité, pour mener les activités de base, mais comme la population augmente rapidement, la demande d'énergie (électricité) augmente également et si la demande d'énergie requise n'est pas fournie, elle crée la pénurie d'énergie, donc nous avons besoin des ressources alternatives (énergie solaire), pour contrôler les crises énergétiques. La lumière du soleil a beaucoup d'importance car c'est la ressource renouvelable et la meilleure alternative pour contrôler les crises énergétiques. Le Pakistan est un pays confronté à la crise énergétique. Ces crises prennent la forme grave de tourments en saison estivale, en particulier dans la province du Sindh. Cependant, en raison de sa situation géographique, la province reçoit suffisamment de lumière du soleil toute l'année. Dans cette recherche, notre objectif est de repérer les endroits les plus appropriés pour l'utilisation efficace de l'énergie solaire à différentes saisons, sur la base de données pointues, dérivées de différents observatoires météorologiques au cours des trente dernières années. Et avec l'aide du système d'information géographique, la lumière solaire annuelle moyenne de la province a été observée qui est de 8,5 heures /jour et la partie centrale de la province est repérée, ce qui convient mieux aux centrales solaires, car la température reste élevée dans cette partie. Hoy en día, los países en desarrollo se enfrentan a múltiples tipos de crisis, especialmente en términos de crisis energéticas. Además, la energía tiene un gran valor porque es muy esencial para el desarrollo de cualquier sociedad, así como para el nivel de vida adecuado, cada país requiere la energía, es decir, la electricidad, para llevar a cabo las actividades básicas, sin embargo, a medida que la población aumenta rápidamente, la demanda de energía (electricidad) también aumenta y si la demanda requerida de energía no se suministra, crea la escasez de energía, por lo tanto, requerimos los recursos alternativos (energía solar) para controlar las crisis energéticas. La luz solar tiene mucha importancia porque es el recurso renovable y es la mejor alternativa para controlar las crisis energéticas. Pakistán es un país que se enfrenta a la crisis energética. Estas crisis toman la forma grave de tormento en la temporada de verano, especialmente en la provincia de Sindh. Sin embargo, debido a su ubicación geográfica, la provincia recibe la cantidad suficiente de luz solar en todo el año. En esta investigación, nuestro enfoque es detectar las ubicaciones más apropiadas para la utilización eficiente de la energía solar en diferentes estaciones, en base a datos puntuales, derivados de diferentes observatorios meteorológicos en los últimos treinta años. Y con la ayuda del Sistema de Información Geográfica se ha observado la luz solar media anual de la provincia que es de 8,5 hrs /día y se mancha la parte central de la provincia, que es más adecuada para las plantas solares, porque la temperatura se mantiene alta en esta parte. Today the developing countries are facing multiple types of crises especially in the term of energy crises. Also Energy has great worth because it is very essential for the development of any society as well as for the adequate standard of living, every country requires the energy i.e. Electricity, as to carry out the basic activities, however as the population is increasing rapidly so the demand of energy (electricity) is also increasing and if the required demand of energy is not supplied then it creates the energy shortage, therefore we require the alternative resources (solar energy), to control the energy crises. Sunlight has a lot of importance because it is the renewable resource and is the best alternative to control the energy crises. Pakistan is a country which is facing the energy crises. These crises take the serious shape of torment in summer season, especially in Sindh province. However due to its geographical location the province receives the enough quantity of sunlight in whole year. In this research our focus is to spot the most appropriate locations for the efficient utilization of solar energy in different seasons, based on pointed data, derived from different meteorological observatories over the last thirty years. And with the help of Geographic information system the annual average sunlight of the province has been observed which is 8.5 hrs /day and the central part of the province is spotted, which is more suitable for solar plants, because the temperature remains high in this part. تواجه البلدان النامية اليوم أنواعًا متعددة من الأزمات خاصة في فترة أزمات الطاقة. كما أن الطاقة لها قيمة كبيرة لأنها ضرورية جدًا لتنمية أي مجتمع وكذلك لمستوى المعيشة اللائق، فكل بلد يحتاج إلى الطاقة، أي الكهرباء، للقيام بالأنشطة الأساسية، ولكن مع تزايد عدد السكان بسرعة، يزداد الطلب على الطاقة (الكهرباء) أيضًا، وإذا لم يتم توفير الطلب المطلوب من الطاقة، فإنه يخلق نقصًا في الطاقة، لذلك نحن بحاجة إلى الموارد البديلة (الطاقة الشمسية)، للسيطرة على أزمات الطاقة. ضوء الشمس له أهمية كبيرة لأنه المورد المتجدد وهو أفضل بديل للسيطرة على أزمات الطاقة. باكستان بلد يواجه أزمات الطاقة. تأخذ هذه الأزمات شكل العذاب الخطير في فصل الصيف، خاصة في مقاطعة السند. ومع ذلك، نظرًا لموقعها الجغرافي، تتلقى المقاطعة كمية كافية من ضوء الشمس طوال العام. في هذا البحث، ينصب تركيزنا على تحديد المواقع الأكثر ملاءمة للاستخدام الفعال للطاقة الشمسية في مواسم مختلفة، بناءً على بيانات محددة، مستمدة من مراصد الأرصاد الجوية المختلفة على مدى الثلاثين عامًا الماضية. وبمساعدة نظام المعلومات الجغرافية، لوحظ متوسط ضوء الشمس السنوي للمقاطعة وهو 8.5 ساعة /يوم ويتم رصد الجزء المركزي من المقاطعة، وهو أكثر ملاءمة لمحطات الطاقة الشمسية، لأن درجة الحرارة تظل مرتفعة في هذا الجزء.