• Energy Research

In this study, hydrological modeling at the watershed level is used to assess the impacts of climate and land use changes on the catchment area of the Khanpur Dam, which is an important water source for Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The hydrological impact of past and anticipated precipitation in the Khanpur Dam watershed was forecast by using a HEC-HMS model. After calibration, the framework was employed to analyze the effects of changes in land cover and climate on the hydrological regime. The model used information from three climatic gauge stations (Murree, Islamabad Zero Point, and Khanpur Dam) to split the Khanpur Dam catchment area into five sub-basins that encompass the entire watershed region, each with distinctive characteristics. The model was evaluated and checked for 2016–2018 and 2019–2020, and it produced an excellent match with the actual and anticipated flows. After statistical downscaling with the CMhyd model, the most effective performing GCM (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) among the four GCMs was chosen and used to forecast projections of temperature and precipitation within two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). The predictions and anticipated changes in land cover were incorporated into the calibrated HEC-HMS model to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and land cover change at the Khanpur Dam. The starting point era (1990–2015) and the projected period (2016–2100), which encompassed the basis in the present century, were analyzed annually. The results indicated a spike in precipitation for the two SSPs, which was predicted to boost inflows all year. Until the end of the twenty-first century, SSP2 predicted a 21 percent rise in precipitation in the Khanpur Dam catchment area, while SSP5 predicted a 28% rise in precipitation. Increased flows were found to be projected in the future. It was found that the calibrated model could also be used effectively for upcoming studies on hydrological effects on inflows of the Khanpur Dam basin.

The water supply in Saudi Arabia is already depleted. Climate change will exacerbate the demand for these resources. This paper examines how climate change affects the water demands of Saudi Arabia’s most important food crops: wheat, clover, vegetables, and dates. To reduce the adverse climate change impacts on these crops’ productivity, as well as their irrigation water requirements (IWR), a number of adaptation techniques were investigated. The study was carried out for the Ar Riyadh region, Saudi Arabia, with a cultivated area of 179,730 ha. In this study, five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, were used to forecast and investigate the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources in the Al-Riyadh Region of Saudi Arabia. To simulate IWRs under the present and projected climate change scenarios, CROPWAT8.0 was used. The results showed that the maximum increase ratio in 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, will be 4.46% and 12.11% higher than in the current case (2020). The results showed that the projected maximum temperatures in 2100 will be increased by 4.46% and 12.11%, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, compared to the current case (2020), supporting past research on the Arabian Peninsula that revealed that both short- and long-term temperature increases are anticipated to be considerable. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the projected ETo was found to be increased by 2.18% and 6.35% in 2100, respectively. Given that evapotranspiration closely mirrors the temperature behavior in the study region from June to August, our data suggest that crop and irrigation demand may increase in the mid to long term. The findings indicate that Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital and commercial hub, will require more water to irrigate agricultural land because of the expanding ETo trend. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the projected growth irrigation water requirement (GIWR) will be increased by 3.1% and 6.7% in 2100, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5, crop areas of wheat, clover, dates, maize, citrus, tomato, potato, and other vegetables in Ar Riyadh will decrease by 6.56%, 7.17%, 5.90%, 6.43%, 5.47%, 6.99%, 5.21%, and 5.5%, respectively, in 2100. Conversely, under SSP2-4.5, the crop areas will decrease by 3.10%, 3.67%, 2.35%, 3.83%, 2.32%, 4.18%, 1.72%, and 2.38% in 2100, respectively. This research could aid in clarifying the adverse climate change impacts on GIWR in Ar Riyad, as well as improving water resource management planning.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and land use/land cover changes on water resources within a catchment is essential because it helps us understand how these dynamic factors affect the quantity, quality, and availability of freshwater. This knowledge is crucial for making informed decisions about water management, conservation, and adaptation strategies, especially in regions facing increasing environmental uncertainties and challenges to water resource sustainability. In Pakistan’s Kunhar River Basin (KRB), this investigation explores the potential effects of shifting land use/land cover (LULC), and climate on stream flows. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a semi-distributed hydrological model, and the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset from multiple global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate these effects. The temperature and precipitation data were downscaled using the CMhyd software; for both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5), the top-performing GCM out of four was required to produce downscaled precipitation and temperature predictions while taking future land use characteristics into account. The output from the chosen GCM indicated that by the conclusion of the 21st century, relative to the reference period (1985–2014), the study area’s average monthly precipitation, highest temperature, and lowest temperature will be increasing. Precipitation is anticipated to increase between 2015 and 2100 by 20.5% and 29.1% according to the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, respectively. This study’s findings, which emphasize the need for project planners and managers taking into account the effects of climate and land cover changes in their management techniques, show that climate change can have a significant impact on the changing seasons of flows in the Kunhar River basin.

The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is made up of three major sub-basins: Kufra, Dakhla, and the N. Sudan Platform. It is one of the world’s largest groundwater systems. The aquifer’s hydrologic setting, connectivity of its sub-basins, and groundwater flow across these sub-basins are currently unclear. To address these issues, we used a combined approach that included: (1) a regionally calibrated groundwater flow model that mimics early (>10,000 years) steady-state conditions under wet climatic periods and later (<10,000 years BP–1960; 1960–2010) transient conditions under arid climatic periods; and (2) groundwater ages (36Cl, 81Kr) and isotopic (18O, 2H) data. The NSAS was recharged on a regional scale in previous wet climatic periods; however, in dry periods, its outcrops are still receiving local modest recharge. A progressive increase in 36Cl groundwater ages was found along groundwater flow directions and along structures that are sub-parallel to the flow direction. The NE–SW Pelusium mega shear zone is a preferential groundwater flow conduit from the Kufra to the Dakhla sub-basin. The south-to-north groundwater flow is hampered by the Uweinat–Aswan basement uplift. The findings provide useful information about the best ways to use the NSAS.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is devastating as it negatively impacts global climatic conditions, which can cause extreme events, including floods and droughts, which are harmful to the region’s economy. Pakistan is also considered one of the climate change hotspot regions in the world. Therefore, the present study investigates the effect of the ENSO on extreme precipitation events across the Upper Indus Basin. We examined the connections between 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and two ENSO indicators, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). This analysis covers both annual and seasonal scales and spans the period from 1971 to 2019. Statistical tests (i.e., Mann–Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)) were used to observe the variations in the EPIs. The results revealed that the number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDDs) is increasing more than Consecutive Wet Days (CWDs); overall, the EPIs exhibited increasing trends, except for the Rx1 (max. 1-day precipitation) and Rx5 (max. 5-day precipitation) indices. The ENSO indicator ONI is a temperature-related ENSO index. The results further showed that the CDD value has a significant positive correlation with the SOI for most of the UIB (Upper Indus Basin) region, whereas for the CWD value, high elevated stations gave a positive relationship. A significant negative relationship was observed for the lower portion of the UIB. The Rx1 and Rx5 indices were observed to have a negative relationship with the SOI, indicating that El Nino causes heavy rainfall. The R95p (very wet days) and R99p (extreme wet days) indices were observed to have significant negative trends in most of the UIB. In contrast, high elevated stations depicted a significant positive relationship that indicates they are affected by La Nina conditions. The PRCPTOT index exhibited a negative relationship with the SOI, revealing that the El Nino phase causes wet conditions in the UIB. The ONI gave a significant positive relationship for the UIB region, reinforcing the idea that both indices exhibit more precipitation during El Nino. The above observations imply that while policies are being developed to cope with climate change impacts, the effects of the ENSO should also be considered.

Wetland ecosystems are essential for maintaining biological diversity and are significant elements of the global landscape. However, the biodiversity of wetlands has been significantly reduced by more than 50% worldwide due to the rapid expansion of urban areas and other human activities. The aforementioned factors have resulted in drastic antagonistic effects on species composition, particularly aquatic avifauna. The decline in wetland avifauna, which can be attributed to changes in water quality that impact aquatic habitats, is a major concern. In this study, we evaluated the impact of physicochemical parameters on aquatic avifauna in India’s first Conservation Reserve, a Ramsar site and an Important Bird Area. Water samples were collected on a monthly basis across nine different sites and various parameters, such as temperature, electrical conductivity, pH, biological oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids and salinity, were analyzed for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, while point count surveys were conducted to assess species richness and the density of waterbirds. Our findings show a positive correlation of species density with water temperature (r = 0.57), total dissolved solids (r = 0.56) and dissolved oxygen (r = 0.6) for pre-monsoon season and a negative correlation for dissolved oxygen (r = −0.62) and biological oxygen demand (r = −0.69) for post-monsoon season. We suggest that a synergistic effect of pH, salinity, biological oxygen demand and total dissolved solids may affect aquatic bird populations in Asan Conservation Reserve. Poor water quality was observed in a few sampling sites, which may negatively affect the number and density of waterbirds present. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of water quality in wetland conservation, particularly for aquatic avifauna.

Integration of remote sensing (RS) and GIS methods has allowed for the identification of potential water resource zones. Here, climatic, ecological, hydrologic, and topographic data have been integrated with microwave and multispectral data. Sentinel-2, SRTM, and TRMM data were developed to characterize the climatic, hydrologic, and topographic landscapes of Wadi Fatima, a portion of western Saudi Arabia that drains to the Red Sea. The physical characteristics of Wadi Fatima’s catchment area that are essential for mapping groundwater potential zones were derived from topographic data, rainfall zones, lineaments, and soil maps through RS data and GIS techniques. Twelve thematic factors were merged with a GIS-based knowledge-driven approach after providing a weight for every factor. Processing of recent Sentinel-2 data acquired on 4 August 2023 verified the existence of a zone of vegetation belonging to promising areas of groundwater potential zones (GPZs). The output map is categorized into six zones: excellent (10.98%), very high (21.98%), high (24.99%), moderate (21.44%), low (14.70%), and very low (5.91%). SAR CCD derived from Sentinel-1 from 2022 to 2023 showed that the parts of no unity are in high-activity areas in agricultural and anthropogenic activities. The model predictions were proven with the ROC curves with ground data, existing wells’ locations, and the water-bearing formations’ thickness inferred from geophysical data. Their performance was accepted (AUC: 0.73). The outcomes of the applied methodologies were excellent and important for exploring, planning, managing, and sustainable development of resources of water in desert areas. The present study successfully provided insights into the watershed’s hydrologic, climatic, vegetated variation, and terrain database information using radar, optical, and multi-temporal InSAR data. Furthermore, the applied multi-criteria overlay technique revealed promising areas for groundwater abstraction, which can be applied elsewhere in various environmental situations.

In Pakistan, surface water supply for irrigation is decreasing, while water demand is increasing for agriculture production. Also, due to the fast rate of population growth, land holding capacity is decreasing. So, there is a need to develop appropriate technologies and design approaches for small-scale farmers to improve modern irrigation practices. In this study, a hydraulic and structural layout of CPIS was designed for small-scale farmers with some modifications. The hydraulic parameters and structural design of the CPIS were designed using IrriExpress and SAP2000 software, respectively. An economic analysis of the modified CPIS was carried out. The results revealed that in one complete revolution of the whole system, its span slope varied from 2.98 to 0.1%, and the wheel slope varied from 2.35 to −2.4%. The timing setting was 60% for one revolution, and the irrigation depth was 10 mm. When the time setting was reduced from 100% to 10%, the irrigation hours per cycle and irrigation depth both increased. Variendeel type-II trusses were designed for structural purposes using SAP2000 software. This design led to a 17% reduction in weight by lowering it from 1.916 to 1.5905 tons and a 44% reduction in joint count, decreasing it from 32 to 18. Our economic analysis revealed that the structural part of the system is more expensive than the hydraulic, electric and power parts for small-scale design. So, it was suggested that CPIS is suitable for land holdings from 100 to 250 acres, because when the area increases to more than 250 acres, there is no significant change in the cost. A towable system is more economical for small-scale farmers due to its lower cost per acre. This study will be helpful for the optimization of CPISs to improve water use efficiency and crop yield.