• Energy Research

There is an increased interest in the district-scale energy transition within interdisciplinary research community. Agent-based modelling presents a suitable approach to address variety of questions related to policies, technologies, processes, and the different stakeholder roles that can foster such transition. This state-of-the-art review focuses on the application of agent-based modelling for exploring policy interventions that facilitate the decarbonisation (i.e., energy transition) of districts and neighbourhoods while considering stakeholders’ social characteristics and interactions. We systematically select and analyse peer-reviewed literature and discuss the key modelling aspects, such as model purpose, agents and decision-making logic, spatial and temporal aspects, and empirical grounding. The analysis reveals that the most established agent-based models’ focus on innovation diffusion (e.g., adoption of solar panels) and dissemination of energy-saving behaviour among a group of buildings in urban areas. We see a considerable gap in exploring the decisions and interactions of agents other than residential households, such as commercial and even industrial energy consumers (and prosumers). Moreover, measures such as building retrofits and conversion to district energy systems involve many stakeholders and complex interactions between them that up to now have hardly been represented in the agent-based modelling environment.

Abstract Competitive international markets imply adjustments towards competitive spatial equilibrium in which excess from one market is transferred to another and prices are equilibrated except for remaining differences that can be assigned to transfer costs. The European market for wood pellets used in small-scale heating systems has been expanding significantly over the past decade. Small scale pellet heating is arguably a mature technology, but whether the market is mature is another question. In this paper we analyse recent data on trade flows and price developments between Italy, Austria, Germany and France to understand the developments of wood pellet market efficiency and to draw conclusions about market function. The objective of this study is to establish a framework to test the European residential wood pellet market for competitive spatial equilibrium using modern trade theory. We find mainly inefficiently integrated markets with remaining positive marginal profits and detectable arbitrageurs’ activity. Based on a thorough discussion of these findings and the underlying data we outline possible methodology advancements and list policy recommendations to secure access and affordability of this renewable heating commodity in the long run.

The European Bioeconomy Strategy aims to strengthen and boost biobased sectors, unlocking investments and markets while rapidly deploying local bioeconomies across Europe and improving compliance with environmental and social sustainability goals. Current biomass provision structures and infrastructure might not be able to tap the sustainable potential of forestry-, agricultural residues and biogenic waste envisaged forming the biogenic feedstock base of the Circular Bioeconomy of tomorrow. Therefore, for the present paper, we assess mobilization strategies, their current status, opportunities, and barriers for local low value and heterogenous biomass resources. Based on discussions with bioenergy supply chain experts, we cluster mobilization measures into three assessment levels; the legislative framework, market structures and technological innovation. Scientific literature research on the respective keywords is performed, the European policy landscape mapped, and the results are enriched with anecdotal evidence, especially for recent and running projects and market developments that lack in published track records. We can identify research needs on all three assessment levels. Still, technological development and legislative frameworks are providing support for heterogeneous biomass mobilization. Market creation, however, represents a bottleneck. We provide novel perspectives, how physical- and virtual bio-hubs and crediting stake- and shareholder variety could create added-value based on sustainable primary economic activities and their cascading activities.

In order to reach sustainable development, the EU plans to expand the production of renewable resources and their conversion into food, feed, biobased products and bioenergy. Therefore also advanced biobased products like e.g. polymers are discussed to substitute their fossil based counterparts which are highly relevant commodities in terms of volumes. The present paper aims to assess the magnitudes of possible substitution shares as well as their implications on biomass demand in the EU28. Therefore scenarios are calculated based on a top-down estimation of current fossil based- and a literature analysis on biobased capacities, respective expectations and targets. Demands for biogenic building blocks are derived using conversion efficiencies and finally energy contents of underlying biogenic carbon carriers are calculated which could be deployed either for energy or material utilisation. We find lowest substitution potentials for biobased surfactants and highest for biodegradable polymers as well as potentials in a same order of magnitude for more durable polymers and biobased bitumen. Compared to average literature estimates for moderate and ambitious bioenergy scenarios, material utilisation could reach up to 4% and 11% shares in 2050 in a joint biobased subsector respectively. However, our scenarios are based on relatively poor data availability. Clearer definitions of products and feedstocks are needed, official monitoring has to be implemented, EU wide substitution targets must be set and pre-treatment and conversion technologies have to be introduced and diffused if we want to discuss and trigger climate change mitigation effects of this bioeconomy subsector in the upcoming decades.

AbstractThe global energy system is in transition. It is attempting to reach net‐zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The systemic changes mean that the role of bioenergy will change. The potential of bioenergy to make a flexible contribution to the energy system is key for the achievement of global emission reduction ambitions and the functioning of the low‐carbon energy system and economy. As the volume of sustainably available biomass resources is limited, defining the contributions from bioenergy to a low‐carbon energy system and finding balances – and ideally synergies – between the different possible energy and climate system services that biomass can provide will be very important. The recognized system services include, among others, the flexible operation of bioenergy plants to integrate variable renewable energy sources and to provide negative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Interest in flexible operation of bioenergy value chains, bioenergy with carbon capture and utilization as well as synergies with renewable hydrogen‐based value chains has increased recently. The objective of this paper is to present a holistic definition of flexible bioenergy as a system service based on the work conducted in International Energy Agency (IEA) Bioenergy Technology Collaboration Programme's Task 44 Flexible Bioenergy and System Integration, and to provide some practical examples. The paper also presents the different bioenergy system services and considers their definitions and interactions, as this is important in energy system design. The definition of flexible bioenergy shows that the flexibility provision from bioenergy goes far beyond the traditional definition of providing short‐term flexibility in the power sector. Indicators to demonstrate the value of services as well as further quantitative assessment of synergies and trade‐offs are needed to valorize the different services from bioenergy and create viable business cases.

Torrefied biomass has considerable potential as a biomass fuel to replace coal in energy and process heat production. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential of torrefied biomass in different industries, both power and non-power generation industries, and considers the impact of such use on the international biomass market. The power generation sector has been so far the leader in testing torrefied biomass use with other industrial demand lagging behind. There are promising technical possibilities for greater torrefied biomass use in a number of other areas such as the steel, non-metallic minerals, as well as the pulp and paper industries. Although a large increase in torrefied biomass consumption by industry is not immediately foreseeable, industrial use by actors outside the energy generation sector could increase demand for torrefied biomass in general and, as a result, stimulate development of global torrefied biomass markets. Results show that the torrefied biomass demand significantly depends on the bioenergy markets. It seems that despite of the challenges, the growth of torrefied biomass demand will have a large progress in coming years.

AbstractCurrent biomass production and trade volumes for energy and new materials and bio‐chemicals are only a small fraction to achieve the bioenergy levels suggested by many global energy and climate change mitigation scenarios for 2050. However, comprehensive sustainability of large scale biomass production and trading has yet to be secured, and governance of developing biomass markets is a critical issue. Fundamental choices need to be made on how to develop sustainable biomass supply chains and govern sustainable international biomass markets. The aim of this paper is to provide a vision of how widespread trade and deployment of biomass for energy purposes can be integrated with the wider (bio)economy. It provides an overview of past and current trade flows of the main bioenergy products, and discusses the most important drivers and barriers for bioenergy in general, and more specifically the further development of bioenergy trade over the coming years. It discusses the role of bioenergy as part of the bioeconomy and other potential roles; and how it can help to achieve the sustainable development goals. The paper concludes that it is critical to demonstrate innovative and integrated value chains for biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower that can respond with agility to market factors while providing economic, environmental, and societal benefits to international trade and market. Furthermore, flexible biogenic carbon supply nets based on broad feedstock portfolios and multiple energy and material utilization pathways will reduce risks for involved stakeholder and foster the market entry and uptake of various densified biogenic carbon carriers. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd