• Energy Research

AbstractAimTo determine the palaeoecological influences of climate change and human land use on the spatial distribution patterns ofPolylepiswoodlands in the Andes.LocationTropical Andes above 2,900 m between 2°S and 18°S of latitude.MethodsPollen and charcoal data were gathered from 13 Andean lake sediment records and were rescaled by the maximum value in each site. The rescaled pollen data were used to estimate a mean abundance and coefficient of variation to show woodland expansions/contractions and woodland fragmentation over the last 20,000 years. The rescaled charcoal was displayed as a 200‐year moving median using 500‐year bins to infer the influence of fire on woodland dynamics at landscape scale. Pollen and charcoal were compared with speleothem, clastic flux and archaeological data to assess the influence of moisture balance, glacial activity and human impact on the spatial distribution ofPolylepiswoodlands.ResultsWoodland expansion and fire were correlated with precipitation changes and glacier dynamics fromc. 20 to 6 kcalbp(thousands of calibrated years before present). Charcoal abundances between 20 and 12 kcalbpwere less common than from 12 kcalbpto modern. However, human‐induced fires were unlikely to be the main cause of a woodland decline centred at 11 kcalbp, as woodlands recovered from 10.5 to 9.5 kcalbp(about twofold increase). Charcoal peaks analogous to those that induced the woodland decline at 11 kcalbpwere commonplace post‐9.5 kcalbpbut did not trigger an equivalent woodland contraction. An increase in the coefficient of variation afterc. 5.5 kcalbpsuggests enhanced fragmentation and coincided with the shift from logistic to exponential growth of human populations. Over the last 1,000 years,Polylepisbecame hyper‐fragmented with over half of sites losingPolylepisfrom the record and with coefficients of variation paralleling those of glacial times.Main conclusionsPolylepiswoodlands formed naturally patchy woodlands, rather than a continuous vegetation belt, prior to human occupation in the Andes. The main factors controlling pre‐human woodland dynamics were precipitation and landscape heterogeneity. Human activity led to hyper‐fragmentation during the lastc. 1,000 years.

AbstractAimTo determine the palaeoecological influences of climate change and human land use on the spatial distribution patterns ofPolylepiswoodlands in the Andes.LocationTropical Andes above 2,900 m between 2°S and 18°S of latitude.MethodsPollen and charcoal data were gathered from 13 Andean lake sediment records and were rescaled by the maximum value in each site. The rescaled pollen data were used to estimate a mean abundance and coefficient of variation to show woodland expansions/contractions and woodland fragmentation over the last 20,000 years. The rescaled charcoal was displayed as a 200‐year moving median using 500‐year bins to infer the influence of fire on woodland dynamics at landscape scale. Pollen and charcoal were compared with speleothem, clastic flux and archaeological data to assess the influence of moisture balance, glacial activity and human impact on the spatial distribution ofPolylepiswoodlands.ResultsWoodland expansion and fire were correlated with precipitation changes and glacier dynamics fromc. 20 to 6 kcalbp(thousands of calibrated years before present). Charcoal abundances between 20 and 12 kcalbpwere less common than from 12 kcalbpto modern. However, human‐induced fires were unlikely to be the main cause of a woodland decline centred at 11 kcalbp, as woodlands recovered from 10.5 to 9.5 kcalbp(about twofold increase). Charcoal peaks analogous to those that induced the woodland decline at 11 kcalbpwere commonplace post‐9.5 kcalbpbut did not trigger an equivalent woodland contraction. An increase in the coefficient of variation afterc. 5.5 kcalbpsuggests enhanced fragmentation and coincided with the shift from logistic to exponential growth of human populations. Over the last 1,000 years,Polylepisbecame hyper‐fragmented with over half of sites losingPolylepisfrom the record and with coefficients of variation paralleling those of glacial times.Main conclusionsPolylepiswoodlands formed naturally patchy woodlands, rather than a continuous vegetation belt, prior to human occupation in the Andes. The main factors controlling pre‐human woodland dynamics were precipitation and landscape heterogeneity. Human activity led to hyper‐fragmentation during the lastc. 1,000 years.

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity. Since 2001, 103,079-189,755 km2 of Amazon rainforest has been impacted by fires, potentially impacting the ranges of 77.3-85.2% of species that are listed as threatened in this region5. The impacts of fire on the ranges of species in Amazonia could be as high as 64%, and greater impacts are typically associated with species that have restricted ranges. We find close associations between forest policy, fire-impacted forest area and their potential impacts on biodiversity. In Brazil, forest policies that were initiated in the mid-2000s corresponded to reduced rates of burning. However, relaxed enforcement of these policies in 2019 has seemingly begun to reverse this trend: approximately 4,253-10,343 km2 of forest has been impacted by fire, leading to some of the most severe potential impacts on biodiversity since 2009. These results highlight the critical role of policy enforcement in the preservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity. Since 2001, 103,079-189,755 km2 of Amazon rainforest has been impacted by fires, potentially impacting the ranges of 77.3-85.2% of species that are listed as threatened in this region5. The impacts of fire on the ranges of species in Amazonia could be as high as 64%, and greater impacts are typically associated with species that have restricted ranges. We find close associations between forest policy, fire-impacted forest area and their potential impacts on biodiversity. In Brazil, forest policies that were initiated in the mid-2000s corresponded to reduced rates of burning. However, relaxed enforcement of these policies in 2019 has seemingly begun to reverse this trend: approximately 4,253-10,343 km2 of forest has been impacted by fire, leading to some of the most severe potential impacts on biodiversity since 2009. These results highlight the critical role of policy enforcement in the preservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.

Aim Climate change causes shifts in species distributions, or ‘migrations’. Despite the centrality of species distributions to biodiversity conservation, the demonstrated large migration of tropical plant species in response to climate change in the past, and the expected sensitivity of species distributions to modern climate change, no study has tested for modern species migrations in tropical plants. Here we conduct a first test of the hypothesis that increasing temperatures are causing tropical trees to migrate to cooler areas. Location Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, south-eastern Peru, South America. Methods We use data from repeated (2003/04–2007/08) censuses of 14 1-ha forest inventory plots spanning an elevational gradient from 950 to 3400 m in Manu National Park in south-eastern Peru, to characterize changes in the elevational distributions of 38 Andean tree genera. We also analyse changes in the genus-level composition of the inventory plots through time. Results We show that most tropical Andean tree genera shifted their mean distributions upslope over the study period and that the mean rate of migration is approximately 2.5–3.5 vertical metres upslope per year. Consistent with upward migrations we also find increasing abundances of tree genera previously distributed at lower elevations in the majority of study plots. Main conclusions These findings are in accord with the a priori hypothesis of upward shifts in species ranges due to elevated temperatures, and are potentially the first documented evidence of present-day climate-driven migrations in a tropical plant community. The observed mean rate of change is less than predicted from the temperature increases for the region, possibly due to the influence of changes in moisture or non-climatic factors such as substrate, species interactions, lags in tree community response and/or dispersal limitations. Whatever the cause(s), continued slower-than-expected migration of tropical Andean trees would indicate a limited ability to respond to increased temperatures, which may lead to increased extinction risks with further climate change.

Aim Climate change causes shifts in species distributions, or ‘migrations’. Despite the centrality of species distributions to biodiversity conservation, the demonstrated large migration of tropical plant species in response to climate change in the past, and the expected sensitivity of species distributions to modern climate change, no study has tested for modern species migrations in tropical plants. Here we conduct a first test of the hypothesis that increasing temperatures are causing tropical trees to migrate to cooler areas. Location Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, south-eastern Peru, South America. Methods We use data from repeated (2003/04–2007/08) censuses of 14 1-ha forest inventory plots spanning an elevational gradient from 950 to 3400 m in Manu National Park in south-eastern Peru, to characterize changes in the elevational distributions of 38 Andean tree genera. We also analyse changes in the genus-level composition of the inventory plots through time. Results We show that most tropical Andean tree genera shifted their mean distributions upslope over the study period and that the mean rate of migration is approximately 2.5–3.5 vertical metres upslope per year. Consistent with upward migrations we also find increasing abundances of tree genera previously distributed at lower elevations in the majority of study plots. Main conclusions These findings are in accord with the a priori hypothesis of upward shifts in species ranges due to elevated temperatures, and are potentially the first documented evidence of present-day climate-driven migrations in a tropical plant community. The observed mean rate of change is less than predicted from the temperature increases for the region, possibly due to the influence of changes in moisture or non-climatic factors such as substrate, species interactions, lags in tree community response and/or dispersal limitations. Whatever the cause(s), continued slower-than-expected migration of tropical Andean trees would indicate a limited ability to respond to increased temperatures, which may lead to increased extinction risks with further climate change.

Abstract. We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from northern and southern sites in the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 30 000 years, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore ordination results as two approaches for extracting environmental variability from pollen records. We also use the records of aquatic and shoreline vegetation as markers for lake level fluctuations and moisture availability. Our analysis focuses on the signature of millennial-scale climate variability in the tropical Andes, in particular Heinrich stadials (HS) and Greenland interstadials (GI). The pollen records show an overall warming trend during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition, but the onset of post-glacial warming differs in timing among records. We identify rapid responses of the tropical vegetation to millennial-scale climate variability. The signatures of HS and the Younger Dryas are generally recorded as downslope upper forest line (UFL) migrations in our transect, and are likely linked to air temperature cooling. The GI1 signal is overall comparable between northern and southern records and indicates upslope UFL migrations and warming in the tropical Andes. Our marker for lake level changes indicated a north-to-south difference that could be related to moisture availability. The air temperature signature recorded by the Andean vegetation was consistent with millennial-scale cryosphere and sea surface temperature changes but suggests a potential difference between the magnitude of temperature change in the ocean and the atmosphere. We also show that arboreal pollen percentage (AP %) and detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) scores are two complementary approaches to extract environmental variability from pollen records.