• Energy Research

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the RUB/USD exchange rate and oil prices. I apply a combination of time-varying cointegration techniques to the data of 1999–2017 to show how this relation evolved dynamically. When the Ruble was not decoupled from oil prices by the efforts of the Central Bank, the pass-through continuously grew over time, both in the long and the short run, substantially increasing during the oil price collapse of 2014. The results further indicate that the Ruble might still be overvalued, implying possible further depreciations, should oil prices remain low.

Abstract Energy imports are crucial for European countries, yet little is known about determinants of their import demand. We update long-outdated estimates of import demand elasticities using recent data for crude and derived energy products and contribute to the debate on the asymmetry of import demand by using recent developments in econometric modelling. Our results have important implications for the geopolitics of energy markets in Europe. (Asymmetric) Income seems to be the most relevant determinant of import demand; Economic growth and fossil fuel consumption are correlated, even in the context of the European agenda towards renewables. Our results suggest that European economic recovery may derail the drive for lower fossil consumption, and that changes in the natural gas market may further complicate this drive, especially regarding Russia as the primary supplier to the Eurozone.

Climate action is an integral part of the Sustainable Development Goals agreed by all 193 United Nations member states. We show that lifting European Union import tariffs on some inputs used to produce renewable energy could lessen Europe’s carbon footprint, improving the likelihood that the region meets the targets of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. The results of a panel regression analysis with detailed product-level data indicate that eliminating the tariffs on 11 intermediate inputs may help to offset fossil fuel consumption driven by growth in economic activity. Abolishing the tariff on a single product—cylindrical roller bearings, used in the manufacturing of wind turbines—would probably bring the most benefit, cancelling out the expansion in demand for fossil fuels otherwise expected from 1–4% European gross domestic product growth (46,000–236,000 tonnes of oil equivalent per member state). An econometric modelling analysis shows that eliminating tariffs in key inputs for renewable energy production can have a significant impact on reducing carbon emissions in Europe.