• Energy Research

Governments at all levels rely on energy-economy models to design climate policy portfolios. Models vary in their purposes and methodologies, yet there is limited research comparing model characteristics and identifying models suitable for specific policy questions. We conduct a web-based survey of energy-economy model users and developers (n = 14) in Canada’s public, private, and non-profit sectors, to systematically compare seventeen models against the following characteristics: Technology representations, microeconomic and macroeconomic details, policy representations, treatment of uncertainty, high-resolution spatial and temporal representations, and data transparency. We find that for the most part, models represent technology, micro-, and macroeconomic characteristics according to the typology of bottom-up, top-down, and hybrid models. However, several modelling evolutions have emerged. To varying extents, top-down models can explicitly represent technologies and some bottom-up models incorporate microeconomic (non-financial) characteristics. We find that models differ in the types of policies they can simulate, sometimes underrepresenting performance regulations, government procurement, and research and development programs. All models use at least one method to explore uncertainty, rarely incorporate spatial and temporal representations, and most models lack publicly available methodological documentation. We discuss the implications of our comparative model analysis for climate policy projections and future research.

Since introducing a path-breaking carbon tax in 2008, the western Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) has attracted significant attention from climate policy scholars. The enactment of its carbon tax has made the case of BC intriguing, as Canada is a poor climate performer, BC is a fossil fuel producer, and carbon taxes are politically challenging to introduce anywhere. This paper discusses the BC tax, and what lessons it holds for other jurisdictions. We complement existing accounts with new details about key events and developments in recent years, and about climate policymaking in BC generally. While there are features of the tax's design and promotion that would be worth replicating elsewhere, we argue its survival reflects some simple good fortune. Moreover, the case of BC should not be reduced to its tax, as the province has enacted other notable climate policies, some of which have done more to reduce emissions while attracting less public criticism.

The United Kingdom (UK) is home to one of the most ambitious climate policy regimes in the world, centred around the 2008 Climate Change Act (CCA), the first strategic climate legislation of its kind. Building on prior studies of the CCA while highlighting Germany as a counterfactual case study, we demonstrate the significant positive role that strategic framework legislation can play in improving climate policy integration and coherence. We further show that important new institutions can be established under the right historical conditions. Specifically, we argue that the political weakening of the UK coal sector was a necessary precursor to the adoption of strong climate policy and the emergence of a structural consensus towards accelerating climate ambition, as compared with Germany where consolidation of the coal regime has been a major factor in the country's failure to meet its emissions targets. We show how business associations and labour groups in the UK were a key supportive coalition for early climate action, while in Germany industry and organized labour have been key actors obstructing and delaying the passage of pro-climate reforms. Our study raises questions about the prospects for energy transitions that are both just and rapid, particularly by discussing the trade-offs between cost-effectiveness, speed, and distributional concerns.

Abstract Carbon pricing is widely recognized as the most economically efficient policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, its high-cost visibility creates political challenges for its implementation at a sufficiently stringent level to achieve deep decarbonization. Flexible regulations, such as renewable portfolio standards and low-carbon fuels standards, incorporate flexibility mechanisms similar to carbon pricing, but seem to face lessor political acceptability barriers. Unlike prescriptive (command-and-control) regulations, flexible regulations do not require technologically-specific compliance pathways and allow credit trading to reduce costs and incentivize innovation. Despite their potential for driving the decarbonization transition, there is comparatively little research on the design and impact of flexible regulations implemented to date. This comparative policy analysis examines government policy documents and academic literature to identify flexible climate regulations implemented in OECD countries and evaluates their implementation context, design characteristics, effectiveness, and public support. In total, 61 unique flexible regulations were identified across 11 countries and 42 sub-national jurisdictions that can be classified into six categories. Findings suggest that as jurisdictions seek to strengthen their climate policy portfolios, flexible regulations can provide a relatively cost effective, broadly supported, and complementary tool to achieve deep emissions reductions, so long as policies are well-designed and interaction and equity impacts are considered.

Abstract Citizen support for climate policies is typically seen as an important criterion in climate policy making. Some studies of climate policy support assume that a significant number of citizens need to be aware of the policies in question and able to provide informed opinions. In this study, we probe this assumption using a web-based survey of residents of the Canadian province of British Columbia (n = 475) by assessing: (1) citizen awareness and knowledge of climate policies, (2) citizen support for different climate policies, (3) the relationship between citizen knowledge and policy support, and (4) the effect of information provision on policy support. Our main finding is that most survey respondents are not aware of any of British Columbia's climate policies, and have little understanding of the potential effect of these on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Once they are made aware of different types of climate policies, respondents are more likely to express support for regulations, such as the zero-emissions electricity standard and energy efficiency regulations, and less likely to support a carbon tax. Statistical analysis indicates that citizen knowledge of policy is not associated with higher policy support. Furthermore, providing information on likely policy effectiveness to our survey respondents did not translate into higher support, suggesting that widespread knowledge and well-informed citizen support are not necessarily required for implementation of effective climate policies.

Abstract Energy-economy models play an increasingly important role in informing climate policy decisions, yet their results lack consistency in terms of projected greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts. The paper employs a scoping review of the key improvements, knowledge gaps, and critiques of energy-economy models in the academic, public, private, and not-for-profit sectors in Canada over the past ten years. The three objectives are to (1) identify the key energy-economy modelling assessment criteria, (2) develop an inventory of energy-economy models assessed against the criteria in objective 1, and (3) discuss implications for modelling climate policies. Four criteria for assessing the ability of energy-economy models to evaluate climate policy impacts are identified: treatment of technology, microeconomic realism, macroeconomic realism, and policy representation. The assessment of 21 models against these criteria reveals similarities and differences across models. Models that share similarities in over-arching methodological approaches are also similar in the way they represent technologies, market heterogeneity, trade effects, different policy types, and energy equilibrium. Conversely, there are quite diverse approaches used in the representation of technological change, non-financial decision factors, financial or monetary features, and non-energy equilibrium. Model documentation does not often address how policy interaction is taken into account. Based on this assessment, implications for climate policy modelling and future research are discussed.