• Energy Research

Abstract In the past four decades following the global oil crisis in 1973, Denmark has implemented remarkable changes in its energy sector, mainly due to the energy conservation measures on the demand side and the energy efficiency improvements on the supply side. Nowadays, the capital intensive infrastructure investments, such as the expansion of district heating networks and the introduction of significant heat saving measures require highly detailed decision-support tool. A Danish heat atlas provides highly detailed database with extensive information about more than 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Energy system analysis tools incorporate environmental, economic, energy and engineering analysis of future energy systems and are considered crucial for the quantitative assessment of transitional scenarios towards future milestones, such as EU 2020 goals and Denmark’s goal of achieving fossil free society after 2050. The present paper shows how a Danish heat atlas can be used for providing inputs to energy system models, especially related to the analysis of heat saving measures within building stock and expansion of district heating networks. As a result, marginal cost curves are created, approximated and prepared for the use in optimization energy system model. Moreover, it is concluded that heat atlas can contribute as a tool for data storage and visualisation of results.

Abstract Denmark has more than 10 years’ of experience with a wind share of approximately 20 per cent. During these 10 years, electricity markets have been subject to developments with a key focus on integrating wind power as well as trading electricity with neighbouring countries. This article introduces a methodology to analyse and understand the current market integration of wind power and concludes that the majority of Danish wind power in the period 2004–2008 was used to meet the domestic demand. Based on a physical analysis, at least 63 per cent of Danish wind power was used domestically in 2008. To analyse the remaining 37 per cent, we must apply a market model to identify cause–effect relationships. The Danish case does not illustrate any upper limit for wind power integration, as also illustrated by Danish political targets to integrate 50 per cent by 2020. In recent years, Danish wind power has been financed solely by the electricity consumers, while maintaining production prices below the EU average. The net influence from wind power has been as low as 1–3 per cent of the consumer price.

Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark. A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing data about physical properties for 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Consequently, the results of the analysis can be represented on a single building level. Under the assumption that buildings with the most profitable heat savings are renovated first, the consequences of heat savings for the economy and energy system have been quantified and geographically referenced. The possibilities for further improvements of the model and the application to other geographical regions have been discussed.

Abstract Energy system models are powerful tools used to develop decarbonisation pathways and to assess the green energy transition. This paper presents the open source energy scenario tool STREAM, by describing the modelling approach, applications, strengths, limitations, and potential future developments. STREAM is a dialogue tool, which is used by a broad audience to conduct quick analyses and to explore plausible scenarios for future integrated energy systems, covering all sectors. STREAM is a relatively simple spreadsheet, which ensures transparency, allows stakeholder involvement, and is suitable for scenario discussions and developments. Moreover, STREAM can be soft-linked with more sophisticated energy tools. STREAM contributes to the integrated energy systems modelling field by providing a fast transparent open source modelling tool, which simulates the entire energy system with detailed chronological temporal resolution, in order to provide insights related to future energy trends. Results from the STREAM model are used by researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers in developing scenarios for analysing strategic decisions regarding the desired development of future energy systems.

Scenarios are used in research, foresight, planning, policy-making and business strategy within the energy domain. There is no common theoretical and methodological framework for making scenario analysis. Rather, definitions and methodologies are most often tailored for specific uses. Scenarios are used for three overarching purposes: For predicting, exploring and anticipating future energy systems. Energy scenarios most often involve economic/engineering modelling of the energy system relying on uncertain projections, expectations, visions or hope for future economic or technical developments thereby lacking a detailed argumentation for the specific social and political conditions under which the scenarios may likely unfold. Energy scenario studies may be improved by focusing more on describing short-term policies and actions that may possibly lead to the future states taking into consideration the role of market conditions as well as lifestyle and social developments.

Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are generally considered costly with world leaders often engaging in debate concerning the costs of mitigation and the distribution of these costs between different countries. In this paper, the analyses and results of the design of a 100% renewable energy system by the year 2050 are presented for a complete energy system including transport. Two short-term transition target years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The energy systems are analysed and designed with hour-by-hour energy system analyses. The analyses reveal that implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socio-economic effects, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100% Renewable energy systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared to the business-as-usual energy system. Hence, the current debate between leaders should reflect a combination of these two main challenges.

Abstract Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models have been rarely apt to represent human behaviour in transportation mode adoption. This paper contributes to the scientific literature by using an E4 model to analyse the long-term decarbonisation of the Danish transport sector. The study is carried out with TIMES-DK, the integrated energy system model of Denmark, which has been expanded in order to endogenously determine modal shares. The methodology extends the technology competition within the modes to competition across modes by aggregating the passenger modal travel demands into demand segments based on the distance range. Modal shift is based not only on the levelised costs of the modes, but also on speed and infrastructure requirement. Constraints derived from the National Travel Survey guarantee consistent travel habits and avoid unrealistic modal shifts. The comparison of model versions with and without modal shift identifies its positive contribution to the fulfilment of the Danish environmental targets. Four sensitivity analyses on the key variables of modal shift assess how their alternative realizations affect the decarbonisation of the transport sector and enable shifting away from car. The results indicate that less strict travel time budget (TTB) and increased speed of public bus lead to a more efficient decarbonisation by 2050.

The Balmorel model has been used to calculate the economic optimal energy system configuration for the Scandinavian countries and Germany in 2060 assuming a nearly 100% coverage of the energy demands in the power, heat and transport sector with renewable energy sources. Different assumptions about the future success of fuel cell technologies have been investigated as well as different electricity and heat demand assumptions. The variability of wind power production was handled by varying the hydropower production and the production on CHP plants using biomass, by power transmission, by varying the heat production in heat pumps and electric heat boilers, and by varying the production of hydrogen in electrolysis plants in combination with hydrogen storage. Investment in hydrogen storage capacity corresponded to 1.2% of annual wind power production in the scenarios without a hydrogen demand from the transport sector, and approximately 4% in the scenarios with a hydrogen demand from the transport sector. Even the scenarios without a demand for hydrogen from the transport sector saw investments in hydrogen storage due to the need for flexibility provided by the ability to store hydrogen. The storage capacities of the electricity storages provided by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were too small to make hydrogen storage superfluous.