• Energy Research

AbstractThe present paper aims to assess the impacts of climate change on grapevine cultivation in the Mediterranean basin by using three regional climatic models (RCMs), which were designed specifically for high-resolution simulation of climate in that region. RCM outputs were used to feed a grapevine growth simulation model, which was developed, tested, and calibrated for the Sangiovese variety. The study area was identified by implementing a bioclimatic classification of the regions based on the Winkler Index (ranging from 1,700 to 1,900 thermal units). The results indicated that the projected increasing temperatures will result in a general acceleration and shortening of the phenological stages compared to the present period. Accordingly, the reduction in time for biomass accumulation negatively affected the final yield. Few exceptions were found in the northern and central regions of the study area (southern France and western Balkans) for which changes in climatic conditions were not limiting and the crop benefited from the enhanced atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. (JEL Classifications: Q100, Q540)

The active participationof the stakeholder communityis viewed as a crucial consideration in the regional assessment of climate change in the Mediterranean. Each of the CIRCE integrating case studies has benefitted from the real-life experience and expertise of local and regional stakeholders. The level of involvment has included stakeholder dialogue on an informal basis throughout the project, culminating in a series of more formal regional stakeholders workshops in the final year of the project. For each case study, stakeholders were chosen from the arena for which decisions are made at the regional-to-local level, and comprise local and regional decision and policy makers within government departments, agencies, and public/private sector entities. The CIRCE experience suggests that a more participatory approach, which involves sharing of “best” practice and accessible targeted information,will be fundamental to successful adaptation planning in the Mediterranean region. This experience ha salso been used to develop a good practice checklist for facilitating stakeholder involvement in research projects.

This paper focuses on the effectiveness of passive adaptation measures against climate change, in the medium (2036–2065) and long term (2066–2095), for three case studies located in Florence (central Italy). In order to identify and highlight the passive measures which can provide comfort conditions with the lowest net heating and cooling energy demand, the input assumptions consider a constant thermal comfort level and don’t take into account either the effect of HVAC system’s performance and the degradation of the materials by ageing. The study results show that, in case of poorly insulated buildings, on the medium term, the reduction of energy needed for heating could be bigger than the increase for cooling, resulting in a total annual net energy need decrease, while in the long term the opposite happens. Conversely, considering a high level of thermal insulation, due to the large increase in cooling demand, the total annual energy need rises in both periods. Furthermore, attention should be paid to internal loads and solar gains that, due to the projected climate change, could become main contributors to the energy balance. In general, since the magnitude of energy need increase for cooling and decrease for heating is very significant on the long term, and varies in function of the type of building, the passive measure adopted and the level of thermal insulation, the research results lead to pay close attention to different types of energy refurbishment interventions, that should be selected in function of their effectiveness over time.

The contribution of agrobiomasses, as a source of energy, to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions was confirmed by several studies. Biomass from agriculture represents one of the larger and more diverse sources to exploit and in particular ethanol and diesel have the potential to be a sustainable replacement for fossil fuels, mainly for transport purposes. However, the cultivation of energy crops dedicated to the production of biofuels presents some potential problems, e.g., competitiveness with food crops, water needs, use of fertilizers, etc., and the economic, energy, and environmental convenience of such activity depends on accurate evaluations about the global efficiency of the production system. In this study, the processes related to the cultivation of energy crops were analyzed from an energy and water cost perspective. The crops studied, maize (Zea mais) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus), were identified for their different water requirements and cultivation management, which in turns induces different energy costs. A 50-year climatic series of meteorological data from 19 weather stations scattered in the Tuscany region was used to feed the crop model CropSyst for the simulation of crop production, water requirement, and cultivation techniques. Obtained results were analyzed to define the real costs of energy crop cultivation, depending on energy and water balances. In the energy crop cultivation, the only positive energy balance was obtained with the more efficient system of irrigation whereas all the other cases provided negative balances. Concerning water, the results demonstrated that more than 1.000 liters of water are required for producing 1 liter of bioethanol. As a consequence, the cultivation of energy crops in the reserved areas of the region will almost double the actual water requirement of the agricultural sector in Tuscany.

AbstractWheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Viticulture is a worldwide agricultural sector with a relevant economic importance, especially in regions where the climate and environmental conditions meet requirements for the production of high quality wines. The impact of climate change combined with the increased frequency of extreme events predicted for the next future has already shown its potential detrimental effects on viticulture suitability, but few studies currently explored the effect of long-term climate change and extreme events by considering the inter-varietal variability of grapevine. In this study, the combined effect of mean climate change and extreme events (frost events at bud break and suboptimal temperatures for fruit-set) under future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for two time slices 2036-2065 and 2066-2095, respectively) was evaluated considering four grapevine varieties with very early, early, middle-early and late phenological cycles. The UniChill model calibrated for these varieties was applied in Europe to assess phenological dynamics (budbreak and flowering) using the outputs of a statistical downscaling procedure. Frost impact around budbreak stage as well as the impact of suboptimal temperature around flowering was estimated under present and future scenarios. The results showed a general earlier occurrence of budbreak and flowering stages with a particular relevance on northeastern Europe. The effect of warmer temperatures had a greater effect on late compared to very early and early varieties in western regions. The frequency of frost events at budbreak (T-min < 0 degrees C) showed wide variability across Europe, with a strong decrease in western regions (e.g. Spain and UK) and an increase in central Europe (e.g. Germany) for future scenarios. The decrease in the frequency of frost events was especially evident for very early and early varieties. The impact of suboptimal temperatures at flowering evidenced a significant variability across a latitudinal gradient while this effect did not show significant results when comparing cultivars and scenarios. The results of these studies highlighted that in a warmer climate frost events rather than stress at flowering will reshape the distribution of grapevine varieties in Europe.