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Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment

Abstract Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.
- Technical University of Munich Germany
- University of Chicago United States
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
- Montpellier SupAgro France
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Columbia University United States
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, sowing date, Tiller mortality, Plant Science, Crop, 630, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Multi-model Ensemble ; New Zealand ; Sowing Date ; Sowing Density ; Tiller Mortality ; Tillering ; Wheat ; Yield Potential, wheat, Yield potential, Biomass, Photosynthesis, ADAPTATION, PLANT-DENSITY, Triticum, Multi-model ensemble, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, CLIMATE-CHANGE, tiller mortality, PRODUCTIVITY, Factors Affecting Maize Yield and Lodging Resistance, Temperature, CROP MODELS, Life Sciences, ta4111, Sowing density, Research Papers, Crop Production, Wheat, Metallurgy, GROWTH, Maize Yield, Tiller (botany), [INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, vehnä, Seasons, Sowing date, Impacts of Elevated CO2 and Ozone on Plant Physiology, Tillering, Climate Change, Photosynthetically active radiation, multi-model ensemble, Uusi-Seelanti, Yield (engineering), CHINA, Environmental science, tillering, USE EFFICIENCY, sowing density, Life Science, Sowing, Biology, Institut für Biochemie und Biologie, METAANALYSIS, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, kylvö, ta1183, ddc:630, Botany, yield potential, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, Crop Management, Agronomy, Materials science, Multi-model ensemble; sowing date; sowing density; tiller mortality; tillering; wheat; yield potential, ROTATION, Growing season, Crop Yield, Agronomy and Crop Science, New Zealand, ddc: ddc:
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, sowing date, Tiller mortality, Plant Science, Crop, 630, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Multi-model Ensemble ; New Zealand ; Sowing Date ; Sowing Density ; Tiller Mortality ; Tillering ; Wheat ; Yield Potential, wheat, Yield potential, Biomass, Photosynthesis, ADAPTATION, PLANT-DENSITY, Triticum, Multi-model ensemble, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, CLIMATE-CHANGE, tiller mortality, PRODUCTIVITY, Factors Affecting Maize Yield and Lodging Resistance, Temperature, CROP MODELS, Life Sciences, ta4111, Sowing density, Research Papers, Crop Production, Wheat, Metallurgy, GROWTH, Maize Yield, Tiller (botany), [INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, vehnä, Seasons, Sowing date, Impacts of Elevated CO2 and Ozone on Plant Physiology, Tillering, Climate Change, Photosynthetically active radiation, multi-model ensemble, Uusi-Seelanti, Yield (engineering), CHINA, Environmental science, tillering, USE EFFICIENCY, sowing density, Life Science, Sowing, Biology, Institut für Biochemie und Biologie, METAANALYSIS, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, kylvö, ta1183, ddc:630, Botany, yield potential, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, Crop Management, Agronomy, Materials science, Multi-model ensemble; sowing date; sowing density; tiller mortality; tillering; wheat; yield potential, ROTATION, Growing season, Crop Yield, Agronomy and Crop Science, New Zealand, ddc: ddc:
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