• Energy Research

Summary This account presents information on all aspects of the biology of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (Common ragweed) that are relevant to understanding its ecology. The main topics are presented within the standard framework of the Biological Flora of the British Isles: distribution, habitat, communities, responses to biotic factors, responses to environment, structure and physiology, phenology, floral and seed characters, herbivores and disease, and history, conservation, impacts and management. Ambrosia artemisiifolia is a monoecious, wind‐pollinated, annual herb native to North America whose height varies from 10 cm to 2.5 m, according to environmental conditions. It has erect, branched stems and pinnately lobed leaves. Spike‐like racemes of male capitula composed of staminate (male) florets terminate the stems, while cyme‐like clusters of pistillate (female) florets are arranged in groups in the axils of main and lateral stem leaves. Seeds require prolonged chilling to break dormancy. Following seedling emergence in spring, the rate of vegetative growth depends on temperature, but development occurs over a wide thermal range. In temperate European climates, male and female flowers are produced from summer to early autumn (July to October). Ambrosia artemisiifolia is sensitive to freezing. Late spring frosts kill seedlings and the first autumn frosts terminate the growing season. It has a preference for dry soils of intermediate to rich nutrient level. Ambrosia artemisiifolia was introduced into Europe with seed imports from North America in the 19th century. Since World War II, it has become widespread in temperate regions of Europe and is now abundant in open, disturbed habitats as a ruderal and agricultural weed. Recently, the North American ragweed leaf beetle (Ophraella communa) has been detected in southern Switzerland and northern Italy. This species appears to have the capacity to substantially reduce growth and seed production of A. artemisiifolia. In heavily infested regions of Europe, A. artemisiifolia causes substantial crop‐yield losses and its copious, highly allergenic pollen creates considerable public health problems. There is a consensus among models that climate change will allow its northward and uphill spread in Europe.

AbstractAccurate models for species' distributions are needed to forecast the progress and impacts of alien invasive species and assess potential range‐shifting driven by global change. Although this has traditionally been achieved through data‐driven correlative modelling, robustly extrapolating these models into novel climatic conditions is challenging. Recently, a small number of process‐based or mechanistic distribution models have been developed to complement the correlative approaches. However, tests of these models are lacking, and there are very few process‐based models for invasive species. We develop a method for estimating the range of a globally invasive species, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), from a temperature‐ and photoperiod‐driven phenology model. The model predicts the region in which ragweed can reach reproductive maturity before frost kills the adult plants in autumn. This aligns well with the poleward and high‐elevation range limits in its native North America and in invaded Europe, clearly showing that phenological constraints determine the cold range margins of the species. Importantly, this is a ‘forward’ prediction made entirely independently of the distribution data. Therefore, it allows a confident and biologically informed forecasting of further invasion and range shifting driven by climate change. For ragweed, such forecasts are extremely important as the species is a serious crop weed and its airborne pollen is a major cause of allergy and asthma in humans. Our results show that phenology can be a key determinant of species' range margins, so integrating phenology into species distribution models offers great potential for the mechanistic modelling of range dynamics.

AbstractAimsThe rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world.LocationGlobal.MethodsWe investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate‐change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges.ResultsWe showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non‐naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non‐naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non‐naturalized species.Main conclusionsWhile currently non‐naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.

Static networks of nature reserves disregard the dynamics of species ranges in changing environments. In fact, climate warming has been shown to potentially drive endangered species out of reserves. Less attention has been paid to the related problem that a warmer climate may also foster the invasion of alien species into reserve networks. Here, we use niche-based predictive modelling to assess to which extent the Austrian Natura 2000 network and a number of habitat types of conservation value outside this network might be prone to climate warming driven changes in invasion risk by Robinia pseudacacia L., one of the most problematic alien plants in Europe. Results suggest that the area potentially invaded by R. pseudacacia will increase considerably under a warmer climate. Interestingly, invasion risk will grow at a higher than average rate for most of the studied habitat types but less than the national average in Natura 2000 sites. This result points to a potential bias in legal protection towards high mountain areas which largely will remain too cold for R. pseudacacia. In contrast, the selected habitat types are more frequent in montane or lower lying regions, where R. pseudacacia invasion risk will increase most pronouncedly. We conclude that management plans of nature reserves should incorporate global warming driven changes in invasion risk in a more explicit manner. In case of R. pseudacacia, reducing propagule pressure by avoiding purposeful plantation in the neighbourhood of reserves and endangered habitats is a simple but crucial measure to prevent further invasion under a warmer climate. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.