• Energy Research
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Abstract Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.

Abstract Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.

Smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana face challenges due to weather variability and market volatility, hindering their ability to invest in sustainable intensification options. Modeling can help understand the relationships between productivity, environmental, and economical aspects, but few models have explored the effects of weather variability on crop management and resource allocation. This study introduces an integrated modeling approach to optimize resource allocation for smallholder mixed crop and livestock farming systems in Northern Ghana. The model combines a process-based crop model, farm simulation model, and annual optimization model. Crop model simulations are driven by a large ensemble of weather time series for two scenarios: good and bad weather. The model accounts for the effects of climate risks on farm management decisions, which can help in supporting investments in sustainable intensification practices, thereby bringing smallholder farmers out of poverty traps. The model was simulated for three different farm types represented in the region. The results suggest that farmers could increase their income by allocating more than 80% of their land to cash crops such as rice, groundnut, and soybeans. The optimized cropping patterns have an over 50% probability of increasing farm income, particularly under bad weather scenarios, compared with current cropping systems.

Smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana face challenges due to weather variability and market volatility, hindering their ability to invest in sustainable intensification options. Modeling can help understand the relationships between productivity, environmental, and economical aspects, but few models have explored the effects of weather variability on crop management and resource allocation. This study introduces an integrated modeling approach to optimize resource allocation for smallholder mixed crop and livestock farming systems in Northern Ghana. The model combines a process-based crop model, farm simulation model, and annual optimization model. Crop model simulations are driven by a large ensemble of weather time series for two scenarios: good and bad weather. The model accounts for the effects of climate risks on farm management decisions, which can help in supporting investments in sustainable intensification practices, thereby bringing smallholder farmers out of poverty traps. The model was simulated for three different farm types represented in the region. The results suggest that farmers could increase their income by allocating more than 80% of their land to cash crops such as rice, groundnut, and soybeans. The optimized cropping patterns have an over 50% probability of increasing farm income, particularly under bad weather scenarios, compared with current cropping systems.

Dans les systèmes socio-écologiques, la gestion des ressources naturelles peut être caractérisée par des compromis entre les secteurs et les objectifs de durabilité. Le concept de lien eau-énergie-alimentation (WEF) fait explicitement divers compromis afin de maximiser les synergies des interventions. Cependant, il existe peu d'exemples réussis de son opérationnalisation dans les contextes de recherche. Ici, nous explorons dans un contexte d'apprentissage si les protocoles d'évaluation de l'impact sur la durabilité (SIA) peuvent être un processus utile à utiliser pour adopter une perspective systémique et interdisciplinaire pour opérationnaliser le lien WEF dans la recherche pour le développement durable. Le processus et la méthode adoptés du protocole SIA, évaluées pour cinq cas exemplaires de lien avec le FEM en Asie centrale au cours d'un atelier international d'une semaine, ont abordé de manière adéquate la complexité des interrelations du FEM et les questions de durabilité associées, et ont facilité une analyse comparative des études de cas à différentes échelles. Les résultats de ce processus soulignent que la gouvernance de l'eau était essentielle pour la gestion transfrontalière à grande échelle du lien avec le FEM, tandis que la gestion des terres et des sols était décisive pour minimiser les compromis au niveau local. Les questions d'interdisciplinarité, de complexité, d'incertitude et de réflexion sur les impacts ont été abordées de manière adéquate, mais des défis subsistent dans la prise en compte de l'éthique et la conception d'une approche transparente, la coopération multi-acteurs. Plus important encore, cet exercice a montré que l'utilisation du processus du protocole SIA aidait les experts disciplinaires à travailler dans toutes les disciplines et à adopter une approche systémique pour analyser le lien avec le FEM. En los sistemas socioecológicos, la gestión de los recursos naturales puede caracterizarse por compensaciones entre sectores y objetivos de sostenibilidad. El concepto de nexo agua-energía-alimentos (WEF) hace explícitas varias compensaciones para maximizar las sinergias de las intervenciones. Sin embargo, hay pocos ejemplos exitosos de su operacionalización en entornos de investigación. Aquí, exploramos en un entorno de aprendizaje si los protocolos de evaluación de impacto de sostenibilidad (SIA) pueden ser un proceso útil para ser utilizado para adoptar una perspectiva sistémica e interdisciplinaria para operacionalizar el nexo WEF en la investigación para el desarrollo sostenible. El proceso y el método adoptados del protocolo SIA, evaluado para cinco casos ejemplares de nexo del FEM en Asia Central durante un taller internacional de una semana de duración, abordó adecuadamente la complejidad de las interrelaciones del FEM y los problemas de sostenibilidad asociados, y facilitó un análisis comparativo de estudios de casos en todas las escalas. Los resultados dentro de este proceso destacan que la gobernanza del agua era fundamental para la gestión del nexo del FEM transfronterizo a gran escala, mientras que la gestión de la tierra y el suelo era decisiva para minimizar las compensaciones a nivel local. Las cuestiones de interdisciplinariedad, complejidad, incertidumbre y reflexión sobre los impactos se abordaron adecuadamente, pero siguen existiendo desafíos en la consideración de la ética y el diseño de, cooperación de múltiples actores. Lo más importante es que este ejercicio mostró que el empleo del proceso del protocolo SIA apoyó a los expertos disciplinarios para trabajar en todas las disciplinas y adoptar un enfoque sistémico para analizar el nexo del WEF. In social-ecological systems, natural resource management can be characterized by trade-offs across sectors and sustainability targets.The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus concept makes explicit various trade-offs in order to maximize synergies of interventions.However, there are few successful examples of its operationalization in research settings.Here, we explore in a learning setting if sustainability impact assessment (SIA) protocols can be a useful process to be used to adopt a systemic, interdisciplinary perspective to operationalize WEF nexus in research for sustainable development.The process and method adopted of SIA protocol, evaluated for five exemplary WEF nexus cases in Central Asia during a week-long international workshop, adequately addressed the complexity of WEF interrelationships and associated sustainability issues, and facilitated a comparative case study analysis across scales.Results within this process highlight that water governance was critical for large-scale transboundary WEF nexus management, while land and soil management were decisive for minimizing trade-offs at local levels.Issues of interdisciplinarity, complexity, uncertainty, and reflection on impacts were adequately addressed, but challenges remain in the consideration of ethics and the design of transparent, multi-actor cooperation.Most importantly, this exercise showed that employment of the process of SIA protocol supported disciplinary experts to work across disciplines and take a systemic approach for analyzing WEF nexus. في النظم الاجتماعية والبيئية، يمكن أن تتميز إدارة الموارد الطبيعية بالمقايضات عبر القطاعات وأهداف الاستدامة. يوضح مفهوم العلاقة بين المياه والطاقة والغذاء (WEF) مقايضات مختلفة صريحة من أجل تحقيق أقصى قدر من التآزر بين التدخلات. ومع ذلك، هناك عدد قليل من الأمثلة الناجحة لتفعيلها في بيئات البحث. هنا، نستكشف في بيئة التعلم ما إذا كانت بروتوكولات تقييم تأثير الاستدامة (SIA) يمكن أن تكون عملية مفيدة لاستخدامها لتبني منظور منهجي متعدد التخصصات لتفعيل العلاقة بين WEF في البحث من أجل التنمية المستدامة. العملية والطريقة المعتمدة لبروتوكول SIA، تم تقييمها لخمس حالات نموذجية للصلة بين المنتدى الاقتصادي العالمي في آسيا الوسطى خلال ورشة عمل دولية استمرت أسبوعًا، وتناولت بشكل كافٍ تعقيد العلاقات المتبادلة بين المنتدى الاقتصادي العالمي وقضايا الاستدامة المرتبطة بها، وسهلت تحليل دراسة حالة مقارنة عبر المقاييس. تسلط النتائج ضمن هذه العملية الضوء على أن إدارة المياه كانت حاسمة لإدارة الصلة بين المنتدى الاقتصادي العالمي على نطاق واسع عبر الحدود، في حين أن إدارة الأراضي والتربة كانت حاسمة لتقليل المفاضلات على المستويات المحلية. تمت معالجة قضايا تعدد التخصصات والتعقيد وعدم اليقين والتفكير في التأثيرات بشكل كافٍ، ولكن لا تزال هناك تحديات في النظر في الأخلاقيات وتصميم الشفافية، التعاون متعدد الجهات الفاعلة. الأهم من ذلك، أظهر هذا التمرين أن توظيف عملية بروتوكول SIA دعم الخبراء التأديبيين للعمل عبر التخصصات واتخاذ نهج منهجي لتحليل العلاقة بين المنتدى الاقتصادي العالمي.