• Energy Research

AbstractThe regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

AbstractClimate warming can result in both abiotic (e.g., permafrost thaw) and biotic (e.g., microbial functional genes) changes in Arctic tundra. Recent research has incorporated dynamic permafrost thaw in Earth system models (ESMs) and indicates that Arctic tundra could be a significant future carbon (C) source due to the enhanced decomposition of thawed deep soil C. However, warming‐induced biotic changes may influence biologically related parameters and the consequent projections inESMs. How model parameters associated with biotic responses will change under warming and to what extent these changes affect projected C budgets have not been carefully examined. In this study, we synthesized six data sets over 5 years from a soil warming experiment at the Eight Mile Lake, Alaska, into the TerrestrialECOsystem (TECO) model with a probabilistic inversion approach. TheTECOmodel used multiple soil layers to track dynamics of thawed soil under different treatments. Our results show that warming increased light use efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis but decreased baseline (i.e., environment‐corrected) turnover rates ofSOCin both the fast and slow pools in comparison with those under control. Moreover, the parameter changes generally amplified over time, suggesting processes of gradual physiological acclimation and functional gene shifts of both plants and microbes. TheTECOmodel predicted that field warming from 2009 to 2013 resulted in cumulative C losses of 224 or 87 g/m2, respectively, without or with changes in those parameters. Thus, warming‐induced parameter changes reduced predicted soil C loss by 61%. Our study suggests that it is critical to incorporate biotic changes inESMs to improve the model performance in predicting C dynamics in permafrost regions.

AbstractGlobally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO2 flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (RS), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high‐frequency RS measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems as well. Such high frequency data are an invaluable resource for understanding GHG fluxes, but lack a central database or repository. Here we describe the lightweight, open‐source COSORE (COntinuous SOil REspiration) database and software, that focuses on automated, continuous and long‐term GHG flux datasets, and is intended to serve as a community resource for earth sciences, climate change syntheses and model evaluation. Contributed datasets are mapped to a single, consistent standard, with metadata on contributors, geographic location, measurement conditions and ancillary data. The design emphasizes the importance of reproducibility, scientific transparency and open access to data. While being oriented towards continuously measured RS, the database design accommodates other soil‐atmosphere measurements (e.g. ecosystem respiration, chamber‐measured net ecosystem exchange, methane fluxes) as well as experimental treatments (heterotrophic only, etc.). We give brief examples of the types of analyses possible using this new community resource and describe its accompanying R software package.

AbstractPermafrost thaw is typically measured with active layer thickness, or the maximum seasonal thaw measured from the ground surface. However, previous work has shown that this measurement alone fails to account for ground subsidence and therefore underestimates permafrost thaw. To determine the impact of subsidence on observed permafrost thaw and thawed soil carbon stocks, we quantified subsidence using high‐accuracy GPS and identified its environmental drivers in a permafrost warming experiment near the southern limit of permafrost in Alaska. With permafrost temperatures near 0°C, 10.8 cm of subsidence was observed in control plots over 9 years. Experimental air and soil warming increased subsidence by five times and created inundated microsites. Across treatments, ice and soil loss drove 85–91% and 9–15% of subsidence, respectively. Accounting for subsidence, permafrost thawed between 19% (control) and 49% (warming) deeper than active layer thickness indicated, and the amount of newly thawed carbon within the active layer was between 37% (control) and 113% (warming) greater. As additional carbon thaws as the active layer deepens, carbon fluxes to the atmosphere and lateral transport of carbon in groundwater could increase. The magnitude of this impact is uncertain at the landscape scale, though, due to limited subsidence measurements. Therefore, to determine the full extent of permafrost thaw across the circumpolar region and its feedback on the carbon cycle, it is necessary to quantify subsidence more broadly across the circumpolar region.