• Energy Research

Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.

AbstractBased on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.

AbstractConservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large‐scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species‐level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water‐centric life‐cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long‐term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.

Plasticity in traits in response to environmental conditions can increase fitness, expanding the range of environments within which a genotype can generate viable and productive phenotypes, and therefore when and where populations can persist and diversify in ecological space. Adaptive forms of plasticity in invertebrates are diverse, ranging from polyphenism and diapause to behavioural thermoregulation and optimal foraging. Local patterns of environmental variation and developmental constraints will dictate which of these forms evolves. Here we review the core idea that the use of narrow developmental windows by invertebrates to attain specific types of phenotypic changes reduces their reversibility, while increasing their magnitude. These tradeoffs dictate the costs and effectiveness of plasticity in buffering environmental variation. In particular, plastic responses to narrow developmental or environmental windows increase fitness costs when predicted environmental challenges do not materialise, or when the environment changes in unpredictable ways. We then explore the converse idea that increasing trait reversibility depends on extending the period for which genotypes are sensitive to the environment, but also narrows the range of plastic phenotypes that can be generated. Considering these findings together, we would expect that the costs, benefits and constraints of reversible versus irreversible plasticity affect the rate and magnitude of adaptive responses to rapidly changing and novel environments. However, such predictions have rarely been tested or included in theoretical models. Identifying this knowledge gap leads us to propose new research directions to provide a deeper understanding of the evolution of plasticity in invertebrates and other organisms. We illustrate these possible directions through examples ofDrosophilaadapting to thermal stress.

Phenotypic plasticity, if adaptive, may allow species to counter the detrimental effects of extreme conditions, but the infrequent occurrence of extreme environments and/or their restriction to low-quality habitats within a species range means that they exert little direct selection on reaction norms. Plasticity could, therefore, be maladaptive under extreme environments, unless genetic correlations are strong between extreme and non-extreme environmental states, and the optimum phenotype changes smoothly with the environment. Empirical evidence suggests that populations and species from more variable environments show higher levels of plasticity that might preadapt them to extremes, but genetic variance for plastic responses can also be low, and genetic variation may not be expressed for some classes of traits under extreme conditions. Much of the empirical literature on plastic responses to extremes has not yet been linked to ecologically relevant conditions, such as asymmetrical fluctuations in the case of temperature extremes. Nevertheless, evolved plastic responses are likely to be important for natural and agricultural species increasingly exposed to climate extremes, and there is an urgent need to collect empirical information and link this to model predictions.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

AbstractEvolution occurs rapidly and is an ongoing process in our environments. Evolutionary principles need to be built into conservation efforts, particularly given the stressful conditions organisms are increasingly likely to experience because of climate change and ongoing habitat fragmentation. The concept of evolutionary resilience is a way of emphasizing evolutionary processes in conservation and landscape planning. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience and suggest how they might be incorporated into policy and management to ensure that resilience is maintained in the face of environmental degradation.

SUMMARYPhysiological limits determine susceptibility to environmental changes, and can be assessed at the individual, population or species/lineage levels. Here I discuss these levels in Drosophila, and consider implications for determining species susceptibility to climate change. Limits at the individual level in Drosophila depend on experimental technique and on the context in which traits are evaluated. At the population level, evidence from selection experiments particularly involving Drosophila melanogaster indicate high levels of heritable variation and evolvability for coping with thermal stresses and aridity. An exception is resistance to high temperatures, which reaches a plateau in selection experiments and has a low heritability/evolvability when temperatures are ramped up to a stressful level. In tropical Drosophila species, populations are limited in their ability to evolve increased desiccation and cold resistance. Population limits can arise from trait and gene interactions but results from different laboratory studies are inconsistent and likely to underestimate the strength of interactions under field conditions. Species and lineage comparisons suggest phylogenetic conservatism for resistance to thermal extremes and other stresses. Plastic responses set individual limits but appear to evolve slowly in Drosophila. There is more species-level variation in lower thermal limits and desiccation resistance compared with upper limits, which might reflect different selection pressures and/or low evolvability. When extremes are considered, tropical Drosophila species do not appear more threatened than temperate species by higher temperatures associated with global warming, contrary to recent conjectures. However, species from the humid tropics may be threatened if they cannot adapt genetically to drier conditions.