• Energy Research

Air pollution causes adverse effects on human health as well as ecosystems and crop yield and also has an impact on climate change trough short-lived climate forcers. To design mitigation strategies for air pollution, 3D Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) have been developed to support the decision process. Increases in model resolution may provide more accurate and detailed information, but will cubically increase computational costs and pose additional challenges concerning high resolution input data. The motivation for the present study was therefore to explore the impact of using finer horizontal grid resolution for policy support applications of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) model within the Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) convention. The goal was to determine the "optimum resolution" at which additional computational efforts do not provide increased model performance using presently available input data. Five regional CTMs performed four runs for 2009 over Europe at different horizontal resolutions.The models' responses to an increase in resolution are broadly consistent for all models. The largest response was found for NO2 followed by PM10 and O3. Model resolution does not impact model performance for rural background conditions. However, increasing model resolution improves the model performance at stations in and near large conglomerations. The statistical evaluation showed that the increased resolution better reproduces the spatial gradients in pollution regimes, but does not help to improve significantly the model performance for reproducing observed temporal variability. This study clearly shows that increasing model resolution is advantageous, and that leaving a resolution of 50km in favour of a resolution between 10 and 20km is practical and worthwhile. As about 70% of the model response to grid resolution is determined by the difference in the spatial emission distribution, improved emission allocation procedures at high spatial and temporal resolution are a crucial factor for further model resolution improvements. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Changing environmental conditions may substantially interact with site quality and forest stand characteristics, and impact forest growth and carbon sequestration. Understanding the impact of the various drivers of forest growth is therefore critical to predict how forest ecosystems can respond to climate change. We conducted a continental-scale analysis of recent (1995–2010) forest volume increment data (ΔVol, m3 ha−1 yr−1), obtained from ca. 100,000 coniferous and broadleaved trees in 442 even-aged, single-species stands across 23 European countries. We used multivariate statistical approaches, such as mixed effects models and structural equation modelling to investigate how European forest growth respond to changes in 11 predictors, including stand characteristics, climate conditions, air and site quality, as well as their interactions. We found that, despite the large environmental gradients encompassed by the forests examined, stand density and age were key drivers of forest growth. We further detected a positive, in some cases non-linear effect of N deposition, most pronounced for beech forests, with a tipping point at ca. 30 kg N ha−1 yr−1. With the exception of a consistent temperature signal on Norway spruce, climate-related predictors and ground-level ozone showed much less generalized relationships with ΔVol. Our results show that, together with the driving forces exerted by stand density and age, N deposition is at least as important as climate to modulate forest growth at continental scale in Europe, with a potential negative effect at sites with high N deposition.

Abstract. The impact of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition on carbon (C) sequestration in soils and biomass of unfertilized, natural, semi-natural and forest ecosystems has been much debated. Many previous results of this dC∕dN response were based on changes in carbon stocks from periodical soil and ecosystem inventories, associated with estimates of Nr deposition obtained from large-scale chemical transport models. This study and a companion paper (Flechard et al., 2020) strive to reduce uncertainties of N effects on C sequestration by linking multi-annual gross and net ecosystem productivity estimates from 40 eddy covariance flux towers across Europe to local measurement-based estimates of dry and wet Nr deposition from a dedicated collocated monitoring network. To identify possible ecological drivers and processes affecting the interplay between C and Nr inputs and losses, these data were also combined with in situ flux measurements of NO, N2O and CH4 fluxes; soil NO3- leaching sampling; and results of soil incubation experiments for N and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as surveys of available data from online databases and from the literature, together with forest ecosystem (BASFOR) modelling. Multi-year averages of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests ranged from −70 to 826 g C m−2 yr−1 at total wet + dry inorganic Nr deposition rates (Ndep) of 0.3 to 4.3 g N m−2 yr−1 and from −4 to 361 g C m−2 yr−1 at Ndep rates of 0.1 to 3.1 g N m−2 yr−1 in short semi-natural vegetation (moorlands, wetlands and unfertilized extensively managed grasslands). The GHG budgets of the forests were strongly dominated by CO2 exchange, while CH4 and N2O exchange comprised a larger proportion of the GHG balance in short semi-natural vegetation. Uncertainties in elemental budgets were much larger for nitrogen than carbon, especially at sites with elevated Ndep where Nr leaching losses were also very large, and compounded by the lack of reliable data on organic nitrogen and N2 losses by denitrification. Nitrogen losses in the form of NO, N2O and especially NO3- were on average 27 % (range 6 %–54 %) of Ndep at sites with Ndep < 1 g N m−2 yr−1 versus 65 % (range 35 %–85 %) for Ndep > 3 g N m−2 yr−1. Such large levels of Nr loss likely indicate that different stages of N saturation occurred at a number of sites. The joint analysis of the C and N budgets provided further hints that N saturation could be detected in altered patterns of forest growth. Net ecosystem productivity increased with Nr deposition up to 2–2.5 g N m−2 yr−1, with large scatter associated with a wide range in carbon sequestration efficiency (CSE, defined as the NEP ∕ GPP ratio). At elevated Ndep levels (> 2.5 g N m−2 yr−1), where inorganic Nr losses were also increasingly large, NEP levelled off and then decreased. The apparent increase in NEP at low to intermediate Ndep levels was partly the result of geographical cross-correlations between Ndep and climate, indicating that the actual mean dC∕dN response at individual sites was significantly lower than would be suggested by a simple, straightforward regression of NEP vs. Ndep.

AbstractIntroduction of high‐performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain‐fed and irrigated areas of major wheat‐producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above‐mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well‐being, ecosystems and climate change.

We modelled the effects of past and expected future changes in climate (temperature, precipitation), CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition (N) and ozone (O3) exposure (phytotoxic ozone dose, POD) on carbon (C) sequestration by European forest ecosystems for the period 1900-2050. Tree C sequestration was assessed by using empirical response functions, while soil C sequestration was simulated with the process-based model VSD, combined with the RothC model. We evaluated two empirical growth responses to N deposition (linear and non-linear) and two O3 exposure relationships (linear function with total biomass or net annual increment). We further investigated an 'interactive model' with interactions between drivers and a 'multiplicative model', in which the combined effect is the product of individual drivers. A single deposition and climate scenario was used for the period 1900-2050. Contrary to expectations, growth observations at European level for the period 1950-2010 compared better with predictions by the multiplicative model than with the interactive model. This coincides with the fact that carbon responses in kgCha-1yr-1 per unit change in drivers, i.e. per °C, ppm CO2, kgNha-1yr-1 and mmolm-2yr-1 POD, are more in line with literature data when using the multiplicative model. Compared to 1900, the estimated European average total C sequestration in both forests and forest soils between 1950 and 2000 increased by 21% in the interactive model and by 41% in the multiplicative model, but observed changes were even higher. This growth increase is expected to decline between 2000 and 2050. The simulated changes between 1950 and 2000 were mainly due to the increase in both N deposition and CO2, while the predicted increases between 2000 and 2050 were mainly caused by the increase in CO2 and temperature, and to lesser extent a decrease in POD, counteracted by reduced N deposition.