• Energy Research

AbstractEcosystems face both local hazards, such as over-exploitation, and global hazards, such as climate change. Since the impact of local hazards attenuates with distance from humans, local extinction risk should decrease with remoteness, making faraway areas safe havens for biodiversity. However, isolation and reduced anthropogenic disturbance may increase ecological specialization in remote communities, and hence their vulnerability to secondary effects of diversity loss propagating through networks of interacting species. We show this to be true for reef fish communities across the globe. An increase in fish-coral dependency with the distance of coral reefs from human settlements, paired with the far-reaching impacts of global hazards, increases the risk of fish species loss, counteracting the benefits of remoteness. Hotspots of fish risk from fish-coral dependency are distinct from those caused by direct human impacts, increasing the number of risk hotspots by ~30% globally. These findings might apply to other ecosystems on Earth and depict a world where no place, no matter how remote, is safe for biodiversity, calling for a reconsideration of global conservation priorities.

AbstractClimate warming is driving changes in species distribution, but habitat characteristics can interact with warming temperatures to affect populations in unexpected ways. We investigated wintering waterbird responses to climate warming depending on habitat characteristics, with a focus on the northern boundary of their non‐breeding distributions where winter climatic conditions are more extreme. At these Nordic latitudes, climate warming is expected to drive positive changes in species occurrence and abundance, with likely differences in species‐specific responses. We analyzed the occurrence and abundance of 18 species of waterbirds monitored over 2,982 surveys at 245 inland wetlands over a 25‐year period in Sweden. We used hierarchical modeling of species communities (HMSC) which enabled us to relate species‐specific changes to both functional traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We investigated occurrence and abundance changes in response to average temperature, temperature anomalies, site area, site protection status (Natura 2000), and land use in agricultural and urban surfaces. Unsurprisingly, both average temperatures and temperature anomalies were the most important variables influencing positively waterbird occurrence and abundance. For 60% of the species, the effect of temperature anomalies was even stronger in large or protected wetlands. Geese and mallard occurred more often at sites surrounded by agricultural and urban surfaces, respectively, but their occurrence in these habitats was not affected by interactive effects with climate warming. Species abundance was greater inside protected areas only for 11% of the species, but occurrence probability was higher inside protected areas for 44% of the species. Overall, we observed that species thermal affinity was a strong predictor for positive species response to temperature anomalies, and that species sharing similar phylogenetic history had similar relationships with environmental variables. Protection of large wetlands and restoration of the surrounding habitats are two targets for climate change adaptation strategies to facilitate future responses of waterbirds to climate warming.

AbstractAimThe aim of this study was to investigate the role of traits in beetle community assembly and test for consistency in these effects among several bioclimatic regions. We asked (1) whether traits predicted species’ responses to environmental gradients (i.e. their niches), (2) whether these same traits could predict co‐occurrence patterns and (3) how consistent were niches and the role of traits among study regions.LocationBoreal forests in Norway and Finland, temperate forests in Germany.TaxonWood‐living (saproxylic) beetles.MethodsWe compiled capture records of 468 wood‐living beetle species from the three regions, along with nine morphological and ecological species traits. Eight climatic and forest covariates were also collected. We used Bayesian hierarchical joint species distribution models to estimate the influence of traits and phylogeny on species’ niches. We also tested for correlations between species associations and trait similarity. Finally, we compared species niches and the effects of traits among study regions.ResultsTraits explained some of the variability in species’ niches, but their effects differed among study regions. However, substantial phylogenetic signal in species niches implies that unmeasured but phylogenetically structured traits have a stronger effect. Degree of trait similarity was correlated with species associations but depended idiosyncratically on the trait and region. Species niches were much more consistent—widespread taxa often responded similarly to an environmental gradient in each region.Main conclusionsThe inconsistent effects of traits among regions limit their current use in understanding beetle community assembly. Phylogenetic signal in niches, however, implies that better predictive traits can eventually be identified. Consistency of species niches among regions means niches may remain relatively stable under future climate and land use changes; this lends credibility to predictive distribution models based on future climate projections but may imply that species’ scope for short‐term adaptation is limited.

AbstractSmall rodents are key species in many ecosystems. In boreal and subarctic environments, their importance is heightened by pronounced multiannual population cycles. Alarmingly, the previously regular rodent cycles appear to be collapsing simultaneously in many areas. Climate change, particularly decreasing snow quality or quantity in winter, is hypothesized as a causal factor, but the evidence is contradictory. Reliable analysis of population dynamics and the influence of climate thereon necessitate spatially and temporally extensive data. We combined data on vole abundances and climate, collected at 33 locations throughout Finland from 1970 to 2011, to test the hypothesis that warming winters are causing a disappearance of multiannual vole cycles. We predicted that vole population dynamics exhibit geographic and temporal variation associated with variation in climate; reduced cyclicity should be observed when and where winter weather has become milder. We found that the temporal patterns in cyclicity varied between climatically different regions: a transient reduction in cycle amplitude in the coldest region, low‐amplitude cycles or irregular dynamics in the climatically intermediate regions, and strengthening cyclicity in the warmest region. Our results did not support the hypothesis that mild winters are uniformly leading to irregular dynamics in boreal vole populations. Long and cold winters were neither a prerequisite for high‐amplitude multiannual cycles, nor were mild winters with reduced snow cover associated with reduced winter growth rates. Population dynamics correlated more strongly with growing season than with winter conditions. Cyclicity was weakened by increasing growing season temperatures in the cold, but strengthened in the warm regions. High‐amplitude multiannual vole cycles emerge in two climatic regimes: a winter‐driven cycle in cold, and a summer‐driven cycle in warm climates. Finally, we show that geographic climatic gradients alone may not reliably predict biological responses to climate change.

AbstractWe present an extensive, large-scale, long-term and multitaxon database on phenological and climatic variation, involving 506,186 observation dates acquired in 471 localities in Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. The data cover the period 1890–2018, with 96% of the data being from 1960 onwards. The database is rich in plants, birds and climatic events, but also includes insects, amphibians, reptiles and fungi. The database includes multiple events per species, such as the onset days of leaf unfolding and leaf fall for plants, and the days for first spring and last autumn occurrences for birds. The data were acquired using standardized methods by permanent staff of national parks and nature reserves (87% of the data) and members of a phenological observation network (13% of the data). The database is valuable for exploring how species respond in their phenology to climate change. Large-scale analyses of spatial variation in phenological response can help to better predict the consequences of species and community responses to climate change.