• Energy Research

AbstractVegetation autumn phenology is critical in regulating the ecosystem carbon cycle and regional climate. However, the dominant drivers of autumn senescence and their temporal shifts under climate change remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a multi‐factor analysis considering both direct climatic controls and biological carryover effects from start‐of‐season (SOS) and seasonal peak vegetation activities on the end‐of‐season (EOS) to fill these knowledge gaps. Combining satellite and ground observations across the northern hemisphere, we found that carryover effects from early‐to‐peak vegetation activities exerted greater influence on EOS than the direct climatic controls on nearly half of the vegetated land. Unexpectedly, the carryover effects from SOS on EOS have significantly weakened over recent decades, accompanied by strengthened climatic controls. Such results indicate the weakened constraint of leaf longevity on senescence due to prolonged growing season in response to climate change. These findings underscore the important role of biological carryover effects in regulating vegetation autumn senescence under climate change, which should be incorporated into the formulation and enhancement of phenology modules utilized in land surface models.

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

AbstractGlobal vegetation greening has been widely confirmed in previous studies, yet the changes in the velocity of green‐up in each month of green‐up period (GUP) remains unclear. Here, we defined the velocity of vegetation green‐up as VNDVI (the monthly increase of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI] during GUP) and further explored its response to climate change in middle‐high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere. We found that in early GUP, VNDVI generally showed positive trends from 1982 to 2015, whereas in late GUP, it showed negative trends in most areas. Such contrasting trends were mainly due to a positive temperature effect on VNDVI in early GUP, but this effect turned negative in late GUP. The increase of soil moisture also in part explained the accelerated vegetation green‐up, especially in the arid and semi‐arid ecosystems of inland areas. Our analyses also indicate that the first month of the GUP was the key stage impacting vegetation greenness in summer. Future warming may continuously speed up the early growth of vegetation, altering the seasonal trajectory of vegetation and its feedbacks to the Earth system.

The first greenhouse gas (GHG) budget accounting over China shows that China's land ecosystems is close to GHG neutral, in contrast to the net GHG source of global land ecosystems.

AbstractEast Asia (China, Japan, Koreas, and Mongolia) has been the world's economic engine over at least the past two decades, exhibiting a rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has expressed the recent ambition to achieve climate neutrality by mid‐century. However, the GHG balance of its terrestrial ecosystems remains poorly constrained. Here, we present a synthesis of the three most important long‐lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) budgets over East Asia during the decades of 2000s and 2010s, following a dual constraint approach. We estimate that terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia is close to neutrality of GHGs, with a magnitude of between −46.3 ± 505.9 Tg CO2eq yr−1(the top‐down approach) and −36.1 ± 207.1 Tg CO2eq yr−1(the bottom‐up approach) during 2000–2019. This net GHG sink includes a large land CO2sink (−1229.3 ± 430.9 Tg CO2 yr−1based on the top‐down approach and −1353.8 ± 158.5 Tg CO2 yr−1based on the bottom‐up approach) being offset by biogenic CH4and N2O emissions, predominantly coming from the agricultural sectors. Emerging data sources and modeling capacities have helped achieve agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches, but sizable uncertainties remain in several flux terms. For example, the reported CO2flux from land use and land cover change varies from a net source of more than 300 Tg CO2 yr−1to a net sink of ∼−700 Tg CO2 yr−1. Although terrestrial ecosystems over East Asia is close to GHG neutral currently, curbing agricultural GHG emissions and additional afforestation and forest managements have the potential to transform the terrestrial ecosystems into a net GHG sink, which would help in realizing East Asian countries' ambitions to achieve climate neutrality.

AbstractClimate change strongly impact vegetation phenology, with considerable potential to alter land-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange and terrestrial carbon cycle. In contrast to well-studied spring leaf-out, the timing and magnitude of autumn senescence remains poorly understood. Here, we use monthly decreases in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index satellite retrievals and their trends to surrogate the speed of autumn senescence during 1982–2018 in the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N). We find that climate warming accelerated senescence in July, but this influence usually reversed in later summer and early autumn. Interestingly, summer greening causes canopy senescence to appear later compared to an advancing trend after eliminating the greening effect. This finding suggests that summer canopy greening may counteract the intrinsic changes in autumnal leaf senescence. Our analysis of autumn vegetation behavior provides reliable guidance for developing and parameterizing land surface models that contain an interactive dynamic vegetation module for placement in coupled Earth System Models.