• Energy Research

A medium‐term (10 year) stochastic forecast model is developed and presented for mixed fisheries that can provide estimations of age‐specific parameters for a maximum of 10 stocks and 10 fisheries. Designed to support fishery managers dealing with complex, multi‐annual management plans, the model can be used to quantitatively test the consequences of various stock‐specific and fishery‐specific decisions, using non‐equilibrium stock dynamics. Such decisions include fishing restrictions and other strategies aimed at achieving sustainable mixed fisheries consistent with the concept of maximum sustainable yield (MSY). In order to test the model, recently gathered data on seven stocks and four fisheries operating in the Ligurian and North Tyrrhenian Seas are used to generate quantitative, 10 year predictions of biomass and catch trends under four different management scenarios. The results show that using the fishing mortality at MSY as the biological reference point for the management of all stocks would be a strong incentive to reduce the technical interactions among concurrent fishing strategies. This would optimize the stock‐specific exploitation and be consistent with sustainability criteria.

AbstractClimate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food‐web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food‐web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080–2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large‐scale impacts of climate change on marine food‐web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.

Artículo DE INFORME DE DATOS Front. Mar. Sci., 06 de julio de 2022Sec. Global Change and the Future Ocean https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910887 Article DE RAPPORT DE DONNÉES Front. Mars Sci., 06 juillet 2022Sec. Changement global et océan du futur https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910887 DATA REPORT article Front. Mar. Sci., 06 July 2022Sec. Global Change and the Future Ocean https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910887 مقالة تقرير البيانات الأمامية. مارس العلوم، 06 يوليو 2022 التغير العالمي ومحيط المستقبل https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910887