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From projected species distribution to food‐web structure under climate change

AbstractClimate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food‐web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food‐web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080–2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large‐scale impacts of climate change on marine food‐web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.
DYNAMICS, 570, food-webs, Food Chain, metaweb, Climate Change, vulnerability, 590, Vulnerability, fish body size, DISTRIBUTION MODELS, 333, Food-webs, niche model, Mediterranean Sea, Connectance, Climate change, Animals, Niche model, Metaweb, PREY BODY-SIZE, CONSEQUENCES, STABILITY, ACL, Fishes, PHYLOGENETIC CONSTRAINTS, Biodiversity, Models, Theoretical, connectance, Generality, Fish body size, climate change, TROPHIC LEVELS, ECOSYSTEM, BIODIVERSITY, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, FISHERIES, generality
DYNAMICS, 570, food-webs, Food Chain, metaweb, Climate Change, vulnerability, 590, Vulnerability, fish body size, DISTRIBUTION MODELS, 333, Food-webs, niche model, Mediterranean Sea, Connectance, Climate change, Animals, Niche model, Metaweb, PREY BODY-SIZE, CONSEQUENCES, STABILITY, ACL, Fishes, PHYLOGENETIC CONSTRAINTS, Biodiversity, Models, Theoretical, connectance, Generality, Fish body size, climate change, TROPHIC LEVELS, ECOSYSTEM, BIODIVERSITY, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, FISHERIES, generality
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).130 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% visibility views 45 - 45views
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