• Energy Research

AbstractIn humid forests in Southeast Asia, many species from dozens of plant families flower gregariously and fruit synchronously at irregular multi-year intervals1–4. Little is known about how climate change will impact these community-wide mass reproductive events. Here, we perform a comprehensive analysis of reproductive phenology and its environmental drivers based on a monthly reproductive phenology record from 210 species in 41 families in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the proportion of flowering and fruiting species decreased from 1976 to 2010. Using a phenology model, we find that 57% of species in the Dipterocarpaceae family respond to both drought and low-temperature cues for flowering. We show that low-temperature flowering cues will become less available in the future in the RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, leading to decreased flowering opportunities of these species in a wide region from Thailand to the island of Borneo. Our results highlight the vulnerability of and variability in phenological responses across species in tropical ecosystems that differ from temperate and boreal biomes.

Societal Impact StatementThe iconic Yoshino cherry tree in Japan is experiencing shifts in its blossom timing due to climate warming. To develop a genetically informed predictive model for bud dormancy release, we examined seasonal gene expression in Yoshino cherry trees at three different locations. Our experiments, coupled with the analysis of DORMANCY‐ASSOCIATED MADS‐box (DAM) genes, highlighted DAM4 as the most reliable indicator for the rate of bud dormancy release. Our study demonstrated that seasonal gene expression profiles serve as a valuable indicator for forecasting the timing of dormancy release, benefiting Japanese traditions and providing insights into the biological impacts of climate change.Summary The Yoshino cherry tree Cerasus × yedoensis ‘Somei‐yoshino’ stands out as an iconic springtime symbol in Japan. For the Yoshino cherry trees to bloom in the spring, dormant buds must undergo a period of exposure to low temperatures, allowing them to break dormancy. Key genes related to dormancy release, known as DORMANCY‐ASSOCIATED MADS‐box (DAM), have been extensively studied. However, it remains unclear how these genes function in natural environments to regulate the timing of bud dormancy release. To develop a genetically informed predictive model for bud dormancy release, we explored seasonal changes in genome‐wide gene expression profiles in the Yoshino cherry trees at three distinct sites in Japan. Five distinct genome‐wide transcription profiles, subjectively named as modes—early summer, summer, autumn, winter, and spring—were identified, with the winter and spring modes observed when the daily mean temperature was below approximately 10°C. Our experiments of bud dormancy release, along with the assessment of expression profiles of DAM genes, have revealed that among the six DAM genes, DAM4 expression profile is the most indicative of the rate of bud dormancy break. Our estimates suggest that, on average, the tree needs to be exposed to temperatures below 10.1°C for 61.1 days to suppress DAM4 expression to the threshold required for bud dormancy release. Our projections for the timing of bud dormancy release indicated a delay of approximately 2.3 days per decade from 1990 to 2020. Our study demonstrated that gene expression serves as a valuable indicator for forecasting the timing of dormancy release.

SummaryPlants have evolved to time their leafing, flowering and fruiting in appropriate seasons for growth, reproduction and resting. As a consequence of their adaptation to geographically different environments, there is a rich diversity in plant phenology from temperate and tropical climates. Recent progress in genetic and molecular studies will provide numerous opportunities to study the genetic basis of phenological traits and the history of adaptation of phenological traits to seasonal and aseasonal environments. Integrating molecular data with long‐term phenology and climate data into predictive models will be a powerful tool to forecast future phenological changes in the face of global environmental change. Here, we review the cross‐scale approach from genes to plant communities from three aspects: the latitudinal gradient of plant phenology at the community level, the environmental and genetic factors underlying the diversity of plant phenology, and an integrated approach to forecast future plant phenology based on genetically informed knowledge. Synthesizing the latest knowledge about plant phenology from molecular, ecological and mathematical perspectives will help us understand how natural selection can lead to the further evolution of the gene regulatory mechanisms in phenological traits in future forest ecosystems.

Understanding how climate warming has an impact on the life cycle schedule of terrestrial organisms is critical to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change. Despite recent advances identifying the molecular basis of temperature responses, few studies have incorporated this knowledge into predictive models. Here we develop a method to forecast flowering phenology by modelling regulatory dynamics of key flowering-time genes in perennial life cycles. The model, parameterized by controlled laboratory experiments, accurately reproduces the seasonal changes in gene expression, the corresponding timing of floral initiation and return to vegetative growth after a period of flowering in complex natural environments. A striking scenario forecast by the model under climate warming is that the shift in the return time to vegetative growth is greater than that in floral initiation, which results in a significant reduction of the flowering period. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of gene expression assessment to predict unexplored risks of climate change.

AbstractOil palm is an important crop for global vegetable oil production, and is widely grown in the humid tropical regions of Southeast Asia. Projected future climate change may well threaten palm oil production. However, oil palm plantations currently produce large amounts of unutilised biological waste. Oil palm stems – which comprise two-thirds of the waste - are especially relevant because they can contain high levels of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) that can serve as feedstock for biorefineries. The NSC in stem are also considered a potent buffer to source-sink imbalances. In the present study, we monitored stem NSC levels and female reproductive growth. We then applied convergent cross mapping (CCM) to assess the causal relationship between the time-series. Mutual causal relationships between female reproductive growth and the stem NSC were detected, with the exception of a relationship between female reproductive organ growth and starch levels. The NSC levels were also influenced by long-term cumulative temperature, with the relationship showing a seven-month time lag. The dynamic between NSC levels and long-term cumulative rainfall showed a shorter time lag. The lower temperatures and higher cumulative rainfall observed from October to December identify this as a period with maximum stem NSC stocks.

AbstractClimate warming is causing shifts in key life‐history events, including flowering time. To assess the impacts of increasing temperature on flowering phenology, it is crucial to understand the transcriptional changes of genes underlying the phenological shifts. Here, we conducted a comprehensive investigation of genes contributing to the flowering phenology shifts in response to increasing temperature by monitoring the seasonal expression dynamics of 293 flowering‐time genes along latitudinal gradients in the perennial herb, Arabidopsis halleri. Through transplant experiments at northern, southern and subtropical study sites in Japan, we demonstrated that the flowering period was shortened as latitude decreased, ultimately resulting in the loss of flowering opportunity in subtropical climates. The key transcriptional changes underlying the shortening of the flowering period and the loss of flowering opportunity were the diminished expression of floral pathway integrator genes and genes in the gibberellin synthesis and aging pathways, all of which are suppressed by increased expression of FLOWERING LOCUS C, a central repressor of flowering. These results suggest that the upper‐temperature limit of reproduction is governed by a relatively small number of genes that suppress reproduction in the absence of winter cold.

AbstractElucidating the physiological mechanisms of the irregular yet concerted flowering rhythm of mass flowering tree species in the tropics requires long‐term monitoring of flowering phenology, exogenous and endogenous environmental factors, as well as identifying interactions and dependencies among these factors. To investigate the proximate factors for floral initiation of mast seeding trees in the tropics, we monitored the expression dynamics of two key flowering genes, meteorological conditions and endogenous resources over two flowering events of Shorea curtisii and Shorea leprosula in the Malay Peninsula. Comparisons of expression dynamics of genes studied indicated functional conservation of FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT) and LEAFY (LFY) in Shorea. The genes were highly expressed at least 1 month before anthesis for both species. A mathematical model considering the synergistic effect of cool temperature and drought on activation of the flowering gene was successful in predicting the observed gene expression patterns. Requirement of both cool temperature and drought for floral transition suggested by the model implies that flowering phenologies of these species are sensitive to climate change. Our molecular phenology approach in the tropics sheds light on the conserved role of flowering genes in plants inhabiting different climate zones and can be widely applied to dissect the flowering processes in other plant species.