• Energy Research

Abstract The land potential for producing biomass for bioenergy purposes has been highly debated in recent years. The present paper analyses the possibilities and consequences for land use and agricultural production of biofuel production in Denmark based on domestic wheat and rape under specific scenario conditions for the period 2010–2030. The potential is assessed for a situation where policy targets for renewable energy carriers in the transport sector is reached using biofuels, and where second generation ethanol increasingly substitutes first generation ethanol. Three scenarios are developed and evaluated: a baseline, an alternative scenario allowing continuous growth in the now dominant livestock branch and a biofuel scenario assuming that efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in biofuel displaces part of the domestic production of fodder. Results show that the biofuel demand could be met in 2020; but only if current rape oil production is used to satisfy local bio-diesel demand. It would also imply that the Danish bio-diesel export currently supplying a minor part of the German fuel market would seize. In 2030, however, only about 60 percent of the biofuel demand would be covered by self-sufficiency. If biofuels were to displace animal production to make up for this, a reduction of the pig production between 10 and 20 percent would result. Efficiency increases across production branches would allow the animal production to continue un-affected if about half of the rape oil produced for other purposes is utilized.

Abstract The land potential for producing biomass for bioenergy purposes has been highly debated in recent years. The present paper analyses the possibilities and consequences for land use and agricultural production of biofuel production in Denmark based on domestic wheat and rape under specific scenario conditions for the period 2010–2030. The potential is assessed for a situation where policy targets for renewable energy carriers in the transport sector is reached using biofuels, and where second generation ethanol increasingly substitutes first generation ethanol. Three scenarios are developed and evaluated: a baseline, an alternative scenario allowing continuous growth in the now dominant livestock branch and a biofuel scenario assuming that efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in biofuel displaces part of the domestic production of fodder. Results show that the biofuel demand could be met in 2020; but only if current rape oil production is used to satisfy local bio-diesel demand. It would also imply that the Danish bio-diesel export currently supplying a minor part of the German fuel market would seize. In 2030, however, only about 60 percent of the biofuel demand would be covered by self-sufficiency. If biofuels were to displace animal production to make up for this, a reduction of the pig production between 10 and 20 percent would result. Efficiency increases across production branches would allow the animal production to continue un-affected if about half of the rape oil produced for other purposes is utilized.

The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000-2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000-2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

In this article, we operationalized a sustainability framing based on the Sustainable Rural Livelihood Resources Framework (SLF), which consists of five capitals—human, physical, social, financial, and natural. We proposed a sustainability index (SI) for two landscapes dominated by two agricultural systems: cattle ranching and small-scale family agriculture. Farm variables within each capital were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis. Key variables were identified and index values were calculated for each capital. These were combined through a set of simultaneous equations to estimate farm-specific capitals and SI from the observed farm variables. Principal component and cluster analyses were used to group the farms according to their index scores and to further compare their characteristics. Furthermore, with the purpose of comparing the index scoring with an independent metric, a landscape indicator, which comes from a continuous forest, was calculated. From the results, the capitals that contributed to a higher SI score the most were financial and physical. As cattle ranching was associated with higher economic returns and infrastructure investments, this livelihood was identified as the most sustainable. Yet, cattle ranching has been a deforestation driver in the region. These results are attributed to the current conceptual framework design, which gives greater weight to material and economic variables; therefore, it generates a weak sustainability measure. Although the framework allowed us to identify land-use alternatives that could improve SI scores (i.e., silvopastoral systems), corrections to the proposed framework and methodological approach will need to include additional environmental benefits currently unaccounted for. Farmers that use their farms for conservation purposes should be recognized and compensated. An improved environmentally focused SI operational framework could help to endorse and promote sustainable livelihoods and to generate a strong sustainability measure.

In this article, we operationalized a sustainability framing based on the Sustainable Rural Livelihood Resources Framework (SLF), which consists of five capitals—human, physical, social, financial, and natural. We proposed a sustainability index (SI) for two landscapes dominated by two agricultural systems: cattle ranching and small-scale family agriculture. Farm variables within each capital were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis. Key variables were identified and index values were calculated for each capital. These were combined through a set of simultaneous equations to estimate farm-specific capitals and SI from the observed farm variables. Principal component and cluster analyses were used to group the farms according to their index scores and to further compare their characteristics. Furthermore, with the purpose of comparing the index scoring with an independent metric, a landscape indicator, which comes from a continuous forest, was calculated. From the results, the capitals that contributed to a higher SI score the most were financial and physical. As cattle ranching was associated with higher economic returns and infrastructure investments, this livelihood was identified as the most sustainable. Yet, cattle ranching has been a deforestation driver in the region. These results are attributed to the current conceptual framework design, which gives greater weight to material and economic variables; therefore, it generates a weak sustainability measure. Although the framework allowed us to identify land-use alternatives that could improve SI scores (i.e., silvopastoral systems), corrections to the proposed framework and methodological approach will need to include additional environmental benefits currently unaccounted for. Farmers that use their farms for conservation purposes should be recognized and compensated. An improved environmentally focused SI operational framework could help to endorse and promote sustainable livelihoods and to generate a strong sustainability measure.

AbstractLand use policies have turned southern China into one of the most intensively managed forest regions in the world, with actions maximizing forest cover on soils with marginal agricultural potential while concurrently increasing livelihoods and mitigating climate change. Based on satellite observations, here we show that diverse land use changes in southern China have increased standing aboveground carbon stocks by 0.11 ± 0.05 Pg C y−1 during 2002–2017. Most of this regional carbon sink was contributed by newly established forests (32%), while forests already existing contributed 24%. Forest growth in harvested forest areas contributed 16% and non-forest areas contributed 28% to the carbon sink, while timber harvest was tripled. Soil moisture declined significantly in 8% of the area. We demonstrate that land management in southern China has been removing an amount of carbon equivalent to 33% of regional fossil CO2 emissions during the last 6 years, but forest growth saturation, land competition for food production and soil-water depletion challenge the longevity of this carbon sink service.