• Energy Research

Abstract Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model–Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north–south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north–south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east–west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2–10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.

Significance Feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations contribute the second-largest uncertainty to projections of future climate. These feedbacks, acting over huge regions and long periods of time, are extraordinarily difficult to observe and quantify directly. We evaluated in situ, atmospheric, and simulation estimates of the effect of CO 2 on carbon storage, subject to mass balance constraints. Multiple lines of evidence suggest significant tropical uptake for CO 2 , approximately balancing net deforestation and confirming a substantial negative global feedback to atmospheric CO 2 and climate. This reconciles two approaches that have previously produced contradictory results. We provide a consistent explanation of the impacts of CO 2 on terrestrial carbon across the 12 orders of magnitude between plant stomata and the global carbon cycle.

Abstract. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is both a greenhouse gas in the troposphere and an ozone depleting substance in the stratosphere and is rapidly increasing in the atmosphere. The spatial distribution of N2O emissions and the sources leading to rising concentrations in the global atmosphere are highly uncertain. We measured the global distribution of tropospheric N2O mixing ratios during the airborne Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. ATom measured mixing ratios of ~300 gas species and aerosol properties in 647 vertical profiles spanning the Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic, and much of the Southern Ocean basins, from nearly Pole to Pole, over four seasons (2016–2018). We measured N2O mixing ratios at 1 Hz using a Quantum Cascade Laser Spectrometer and a new spectral retrieval method to account for the pressure and temperature sensitivity of the instrument when deployed on aircraft. This retrieval strategy improved the precision of our N2O measurements by a factor of 3, enabling us to recover the precision to that of previous missions. Most of the variance of N2O mixing ratios in the troposphere is driven by the influence of N2O-depleted stratospheric air, especially at mid and high latitudes. We observe the downward propagation of lower N2O mixing ratios (compared to surface stations) that tracks the influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange through the tropospheric column down to the surface, resulting in a seasonal minimum at the surface 2–3 months after the peak stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange in spring. The highest N2O mixing ratios occur close to the equator, extending through the boundary layer and free troposphere. We observed influences from a complex and diverse mixture of N2O sources, with emission source types identified using the rich suite of chemical species measured on ATom and with the geographical origin calculated using an atmospheric transport model. Although ATom flights were mostly over the oceans, the most prominent N2O enhancements were associated with anthropogenic emissions, including industry, oil and gas, urban and biomass burning, especially in the tropical Atlantic outflow from Africa. Enhanced N2O mixing ratios are mostly associated with pollution-related tracers arriving from the coastal area of Nigeria. Peaks of N2O are often well-correlated with indicators of photochemical processing, suggesting possible unexpected source processes. The difficulty of separating the mixture of different sources in the atmosphere contributes to uncertainties in the N2O global budget. The extensive data set from ATom will help improve the understanding of N2O emission processes and their representation in global models.