• Energy Research

AbstractPaleoclimate reconstructions have enhanced our understanding of how past climates have shaped present‐day biodiversity. We hypothesize that the geographic extent of Pleistocene forest refugia and suitable habitat fluctuated significantly in time during the late Quaternary for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Using bioclimatic variables representing monthly temperature and precipitation estimates, past human population density data, and an extensive database of georeferenced presence points, we built a model of changing habitat suitability for chimpanzees at fine spatio‐temporal scales dating back to the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP). Our models cover a spatial resolution of 0.0467° (approximately 5.19 km2 grid cells) and a temporal resolution of between 1000 and 4000 years. Using our model, we mapped habitat stability over time using three approaches, comparing our modeled stability estimates to existing knowledge of Afrotropical refugia, as well as contemporary patterns of major keystone tropical food resources used by chimpanzees, figs (Moraceae), and palms (Arecacae). Results show habitat stability congruent with known glacial refugia across Africa, suggesting their extents may have been underestimated for chimpanzees, with potentially up to approximately 60,000 km2 of previously unrecognized glacial refugia. The refugia we highlight coincide with higher species richness for figs and palms. Our results provide spatio‐temporally explicit insights into the role of refugia across the chimpanzee range, forming the empirical foundation for developing and testing hypotheses about behavioral, ecological, and genetic diversity with additional data. This methodology can be applied to other species and geographic areas when sufficient data are available.

As Earth’s climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

ABSTRACT AND KEYWORDSAimTo quantify the effect of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on habitat connectivity across páramos in the Neotropics.LocationThe Northern AndesMethodsThe unique páramos habitat underwent dynamic shifts in elevation in response to changing climate conditions during the Pleistocene. The lower boundary of the páramos is defined by the upper forest line, which is known to be highly responsive to temperature. Here we reconstruct the extent and connectivity of páramos over the last 1 million years (Myr) by reconstructing the UFL from the long fossil pollen record of Funza09, Colombia, and applying it to spatial mapping on modern topographies across the Northern Andes for 752 time slices. Data provide an estimate of how often and for how long different elevations were occupied by páramos and estimates their connectivity to provide insights into the role of topography in biogeographic patterns of páramos.ResultsOur findings show that connectivity amongst páramos of the Northern Andes was highly dynamic, both within and across mountain ranges. Connectivity amongst páramos peaked during extreme glacial periods but intermediate cool stadials and mild interstadials dominated the climate system. These variable degrees of connectivity through time result in what we term the ‘flickering connectivity system’. We provide a visualization (video) to showcase this phenomenon. Patterns of connectivity in the Northern Andes contradict patterns observed in other mountain ranges of differing topographies.Main conclusionsPleistocene climate change was the driver of significant elevational and spatial shifts in páramos causing dynamic changes in habitat connectivity across and within all mountain ranges. Some generalities emerge, including the fact that connectivity was greatest during the most ephemeral of times. However, the timing, duration and degree of connectivity varied substantially among mountain ranges depending on their topographic configuration. The flickering connectivity system of the páramos uncovers the dynamic settings in which evolutionary radiations shaped the most diverse alpine biome on Earth.