• Energy Research

The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990–2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region, China. The results display that population growth is the key driving factor for carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the key restraining factor. With 1% change in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, energy structure, urbanization level, and industrial structure, the change in carbon emissions was 0.80%, 0.48%, 0.20%, 0.07%, 0.58%, and 0.47%, respectively. Based on the results from regression analysis, scenario analysis was employed in this study, and it was found that Xinjiang would be difficult to realize carbon emissions peak early around 2030. Under the condition of the medium-high change rates in energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and with the low-medium change rates in population, GDP per capita, and urbanization level, Xinjiang will achieve carbon emissions peak at of 626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of 2030, 2030, 2040, and 2040, respectively. At last, under the background of Chinese carbon emissions peak around 2030, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to the sustainable socio-economic development for the energy base area, Xinjiang autonomous region.

Analyzing the driving factors of regional carbon emissions is important for achieving emissions reduction. Based on the Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method, we analyzed the effect of population, economic development, energy intensity, renewable energy penetration, and coefficient on carbon emissions during 1990–2016. Afterwards, we analyzed the contribution rate of sectors’ energy intensity effect and sectors’ economic structure effect to the entire energy intensity. The results showed that the influencing factors have different effects on carbon emissions under different stages. During 1990–2000, economic development and population were the main factors contributing to the increase in carbon emissions, and energy intensity was an important factor to curb the carbon emissions increase. The energy intensity of industry and the economic structure of agriculture were the main factors to promote the decline of entire energy intensity. During 2001–2010, economic growth and emission coefficient were the main drivers to escalate the carbon emissions, and energy intensity was the key factor to offset the carbon emissions growth. The economic structure of transportation, and the energy intensity of industry and service were the main factors contributing to the decline of the entire energy intensity. During 2011–2016, economic growth and energy intensity were the main drivers of enhancing carbon emissions, while the coefficient was the key factor in curbing the growth of carbon emissions. The industry’s economic structure and transportation’s energy intensity were the main factors to promote the decline of the entire energy intensity. Finally, the suggestions of emissions reductions are put forward from the aspects of improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy structure and adjusting industrial structure etc.

China faces a difficult choice of maintaining socioeconomic development and carbon emissions mitigation. Analyzing the decoupling relationship between economic development and carbon emissions and its driving factors from a regional perspective is the key for the Chinese government to achieve the 2030 emission reduction target. This study adopted the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and Tapio index, decomposed the driving forces of the decoupling, and measured the sector’s decoupling states from carbon emissions in Xinjiang province, China. The results found that: (1) Xinjiang’s carbon emissions increased from 93.34 Mt in 2000 to 468.12 Mt in 2017. Energy-intensive industries were the key body of carbon emissions in Xinjiang. (2) The economic activity effect played the decisive factor to carbon emissions increase, which account for 93.58%, 81.51%, and 58.62% in Xinjiang during 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2017, respectively. The energy intensity effect proved the dominant influence for carbon emissions mitigation, which accounted for −22.39% of carbon emissions increase during 2000–2010. (3) Weak decoupling (WD), expansive coupling (EC), expansive negative decoupling (END) and strong negative decoupling (SND) were identified in Xinjiang during 2001 to 2017. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita elasticity has a major inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions decoupling. Energy intensity elasticity played a major driver to the decoupling in Xinjiang. Most industries have not reached the decoupling state in Xinjiang. Fuel processing, power generation, chemicals, non-ferrous, iron and steel industries mainly shown states of END and EC. On this basis, it is suggested that local governments should adjust the industrial structure, optimize energy consumption structure, and promote energy conservation and emission reduction to tap the potential of carbon emissions mitigation in key sectors.