• Energy Research

Abstract Ecosystem models forced by future climate simulations outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate a substantial decline of tropical marine animal biomass over the course of the 21st century. Regional projections are however far more uncertain because of well-known biases common to most CMIP5 historical simulations that propagate within the food web. Moreover, the model outputs for high trophic levels marine fauna suffer from lack of validation based on in situ data. In this study, we implement a “bias-mitigation” strategy to reduce the physical oceanography and biogeochemical biases simulated by three CMIP5 models under the future RCP8.5 scenario. We force two very different micronekton models with these “bias-mitigated” outputs to infer the future micronekton changes in the Coral Sea: a 3-D deterministic population dynamics model; and a 3-D statistical model based on in situ hydro-acoustic data. These two models forecast a consistent pattern of micronekton abundance changes in the epipelagic layer (0–150 m) by 2100 for three different climate forcing used, with a marked decrease south of 22°S and a smaller increase further north mostly related to temperature and chlorophyll changes. In contrast, changes in the vertical patterns of micronekton predicted by the two models considerably differ in the upper mesopelagic layers (150–450 m) and lower mesopelagic layer (450–1000 m), highlighting the structural sensitivity in model type. Since micronekton are prey of all larger marine predators, those discrepancies in vertical structures of micronekton may hamper our potential to predict how top predators may evolve in the future.

In several Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), rapid population growth and inadequate management of coastal fish habitats and stocks is causing a gap to emerge between the amount of fish recommended for good nutrition and sustainable harvests from coastal fisheries. The effects of ocean warming and acidification on coral reefs, and the effects of climate change on mangrove and seagrass habitats, are expected to widen this gap. To optimise the contributions of small-scale fisheries to food security in PICTs, adaptations are needed to minimise and fill the gap. Key measures to minimise the gap include community-based approaches to: manage catchment vegetation to reduce sedimentation; maintain the structural complexity of fish habitats; allow landward migration of mangroves as sea level rises; sustain recruitment and production of demersal fish by managing ‘source’ populations; and diversify fishing methods to increase catches of species favoured by climate change. The main adaptions to help fill the gap in fish supply include: transferring some fishing effort from coral reefs to tuna and other large pelagic fish by scaling-up the use of nearshore fish aggregating devices; developing fisheries for small pelagic species; and extending the shelf life of catches by improving post-harvest methods. Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of yellowfin tuna, skipjack tuna, wahoo and mahi mahi, indicates that these species are likely to remain abundant enough to implement these adaptations in most PICTs until 2050. We conclude by outlining the policies needed to support the recommended adaptations.

Animals use varied acoustic signals that play critical roles in their lives. Understanding the function of these signals may inform about key life-history processes relevant for conservation. In the case of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), that produce different call types associated with different behaviours, several hypotheses have emerged regarding call function, but the topic still remains in its infancy. Here, we investigate the potential function of two fin whale vocalizations, the song-forming 20-Hz call and the 40-Hz call, by examining their production in relation to season, year and prey biomass. Our results showed that the production of 20-Hz calls was strongly influenced by season, with a clear peak during the breeding months, and secondarily by year, likely due to changes in whale abundance. These results support the reproductive function of the 20-Hz song used as an acoustic display. Conversely, season and year had no effect on variation in 40-Hz calling rates, but prey biomass did. This is the first study linking 40-Hz call activity to prey biomass, supporting the previously suggested food-associated function of this call. Understanding the functions of animal signals can help identifying functional habitats and predict the negative effects of human activities with important implications for conservation.

AbstractTo limit climate warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels, most economic sectors will need a rapid transformation toward a net zero emission of CO2. Tuna fisheries is a key food production sector that burns fossil fuel to operate but also reduces the deadfall of large‐bodied fish so the capacity of this natural carbon pump to deep sea. Yet, the carbon balance of tuna populations, so the net difference between CO2 emission due to industrial exploitation and CO2 sequestration by fish deadfall after natural mortality, is still unknown. Here, by considering the dynamics of two main contrasting tuna species (Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus obesus) across the Pacific since the 1980s, we show that most tuna populations became CO2 sources instead of remaining natural sinks. Without considering the supply chain, the main factors associated with this shift are exploitation rate, transshipment intensity, fuel consumption, and climate change. Our study urges for a better global ocean stewardship, by curbing subsidies and limiting transshipment in remote international waters, to quickly rebuild most pelagic fish stocks above their target management reference points and reactivate a neglected carbon pump toward the deep sea as an additional Nature Climate Solution in our portfolio. Even if this potential carbon sequestration by surface unit may appear low compared to that of coastal ecosystems or tropical forests, the ocean covers a vast area and the sinking biomass of dead vertebrates can sequester carbon for around 1000 years in the deep sea. We also highlight the multiple co‐benefits and trade‐offs from engaging the industrial fisheries sector with carbon neutrality.

Climate change is predicted to alter the distributions of tropical tuna stocks in the Pacific Ocean. Recent modelling projects significant future shifts in tuna biomass from west to east, and from national jurisdictions to high seas areas. As the distributions of these stocks change, the relevant regional fisheries management organisations (RFMOs)—the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC)—will need to develop an expanded framework for cooperation and collaboration to fulfil their conservation and management responsibilities under international law. The key elements of a possible expanded framework for cooperation can be developed, and fundamental areas for collaboration identified, by applying and adapting principles established in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement, and the constituent instruments of the RFMOs themselves. Our analysis reveals a wide range of important issues requiring cooperation, and three clear priorities. First, a formal mechanism for cooperation is needed to enable effective and efficient decision-making and action by the two RFMOs on key issues. Second, further cooperation is required in scientific research and modelling to better understand the biology and distributions of Pacific tuna stocks and how they will respond to climate change, and to inform stock assessments and harvest strategies. Third, the RFMOs must cooperate to define appropriate limits on fishing for each stock in a way that ensures they are compatible across the two organisations, taking into account their different members and management regimes.

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefiting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystemrelevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.