• Energy Research

AbstractClimatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta‐analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.

Water availability limits plant growth and production in almost all terrestrial ecosystems. However, biomes differ substantially in sensitivity of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to between-year variation in precipitation. Average rain-use efficiency (RUE; ANPP/precipitation) also varies between biomes, supposedly because of differences in vegetation structure and/or biogeochemical constraints. Here we show that RUE decreases across biomes as mean annual precipitation increases. However, during the driest years at each site, there is convergence to a common maximum RUE (RUE(max)) that is typical of arid ecosystems. RUE(max) was also identified by experimentally altering the degree of limitation by water and other resources. Thus, in years when water is most limiting, deserts, grasslands and forests all exhibit the same rate of biomass production per unit rainfall, despite differences in physiognomy and site-level RUE. Global climate models predict increased between-year variability in precipitation, more frequent extreme drought events, and changes in temperature. Forecasts of future ecosystem behaviour should take into account this convergent feature of terrestrial biomes.

The invasion of woody vegetation into deserts, grasslands and savannas is generally thought to lead to an increase in the amount of carbon stored in those ecosystems. For this reason, shrub and forest expansion (for example, into grasslands) is also suggested to be a substantial, if uncertain, component of the terrestrial carbon sink. Here we investigate woody plant invasion along a precipitation gradient (200 to 1,100 mm yr(-1)) by comparing carbon and nitrogen budgets and soil delta(13)C profiles between six pairs of adjacent grasslands, in which one of each pair was invaded by woody species 30 to 100 years ago. We found a clear negative relationship between precipitation and changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen content when grasslands were invaded by woody vegetation, with drier sites gaining, and wetter sites losing, soil organic carbon. Losses of soil organic carbon at the wetter sites were substantial enough to offset increases in plant biomass carbon, suggesting that current land-based assessments may overestimate carbon sinks. Assessments relying on carbon stored from woody plant invasions to balance emissions may therefore be incorrect.

AbstractFundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy‐makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS‐II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short‐term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon–juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought‐induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles.

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of drought-induced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function.

Explanations for the occurrence of deep-rooted plants in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have traditionally emphasized the uptake of relatively deep soil water. However, recent hydrologic data from arid systems show that soil water potentials at depth fluctuate little over long time periods, suggesting this water may be rarely utilized or replenished. In this study, we examine the distributions of root biomass, soil moisture and nutrient contents to 10-m depths at five semi-arid and arid sites across southwestern USA. We couple these depth distributions with strontium (Sr) isotope data that show deep (>1 m) nutrient uptake is prevalent at four of the five sites. At all of the sites, the highest abundance of one or more of the measured nutrients occurred deep within the soil profile, particularly for P, Ca2+ and Mg2+. Phosphate contents were greater at depth than in the top meter of soil at three of five sites. At Jornada, for example, the 2-3 m depth increment had twice the extractable P as the top meter of soil, despite the highest concentrations of P occurring at the surface. The prevalence of such deep resource pools, and our evidence for cation uptake from them, suggest nutrient uptake as a complementary explanation for the occurrence of deep-rooted plants in arid and semi-arid systems. We propose that hydraulic redistribution of shallow surface water to deep soil layers by roots may be the mechanism through which deep soil nutrients are mobilized and taken up by plants.

Woody plants vary in their adaptations to drought and shade. For a better prediction of vegetation responses to drought and shade within dynamic global vegetation models, it is critical to group species into functional types with similar adaptations. One of the key challenges is that the adaptations are generally determined by a large number of plant traits that may not be available for a large number of species. In this study, we present two heuristic woody plant groups that were separated using cluster analysis in a three-dimensional trait-environment space based on three key metrics for each species: mean xylem embolism resistance, shade tolerance and habitat aridity. The two heuristic groups separate these species into tolerators and avoiders. The tolerators either rely on their high embolism resistance to tolerate drought in arid habitats (e.g., Juniperus and Prunus) or rely on high shade tolerance to withstand shaded conditions in wet habitats (e.g., Picea, Abies and Acer). In contrast, all avoiders have low embolism resistance and low shade tolerance. In arid habitats, avoiders tend to minimize catastrophic embolism (e.g., most Pinus species) while in wet habitats, they may survive despite low shade tolerance (e.g., Betula, Populus, Alnus and Salix). Because our approach links traits to the environmental conditions, we expect it could be a promising framework for predicting changes in species composition, and therefore ecosystem function, under changing environmental conditions.