• Energy Research

ABSTRACTGlobal climate change is exacerbating biological invasions; however, the roles of genomic and epigenomic variations and their interactions in future climate adaptation remain underexplored. Using the model invasive ascidian Botryllus schlosseri across the Northern Hemisphere, we investigated genomic and epigenomic responses to future climates and developed a framework to assess future invasion risks. We employed generalized dissimilarity modeling and gradient forest analyses to assess genomic and epigenomic offsets under climate change. Our results showed that populations with genomic maladaptation did not geographically overlap with those experiencing epigenomic maladaptation, suggesting that genomic and epigenomic variations play complementary roles in adaptation to future climate conditions. By integrating genomic and epigenomic offsets into the genome–epigenomic index, we predicted that populations with lower index values were less maladapted, indicating a higher risk of future invasions. Native populations exhibited lower offsets than invasive populations, suggesting greater adaptive potentials and higher invasion risks under future climate change scenarios. These results highlight the importance of incorporating multi‐omics data into predictive models to study future climate (mal)adaptation and assess invasion risks under global climate change.

ABSTRACTGlobal climate change is exacerbating biological invasions; however, the roles of genomic and epigenomic variations and their interactions in future climate adaptation remain underexplored. Using the model invasive ascidian Botryllus schlosseri across the Northern Hemisphere, we investigated genomic and epigenomic responses to future climates and developed a framework to assess future invasion risks. We employed generalized dissimilarity modeling and gradient forest analyses to assess genomic and epigenomic offsets under climate change. Our results showed that populations with genomic maladaptation did not geographically overlap with those experiencing epigenomic maladaptation, suggesting that genomic and epigenomic variations play complementary roles in adaptation to future climate conditions. By integrating genomic and epigenomic offsets into the genome–epigenomic index, we predicted that populations with lower index values were less maladapted, indicating a higher risk of future invasions. Native populations exhibited lower offsets than invasive populations, suggesting greater adaptive potentials and higher invasion risks under future climate change scenarios. These results highlight the importance of incorporating multi‐omics data into predictive models to study future climate (mal)adaptation and assess invasion risks under global climate change.

Abstract Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide. These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species. Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species.

Abstract Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide. These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species. Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species.

Global climate change is expected to accelerate biological invasions, necessitating accurate risk forecasting and management strategies. However, current invasion risk assessments often overlook adaptive genomic variation, which plays a significant role in the persistence and expansion of invasive populations. Here we used Molgula manhattensis, a highly invasive ascidian, as a model to assess its invasion risks along Chinese coasts under climate change. Through population genomics analyses, we identified two genetic clusters, the north and south clusters, based on geographic distributions. To predict invasion risks, we employed the gradient forest and species distribution models to calculate genomic offset and species habitat suitability, respectively. These approaches yielded distinct predictions: the gradient forest model suggested a greater genomic offset to future climatic conditions for the north cluster (i.e., lower invasion risks), while the species distribution model indicated higher future habitat suitability for the same cluster (i.e, higher invasion risks). By integrating these models, we found that the south cluster exhibited minor genome-niche disruptions in the future, indicating higher invasion risks. Our study highlights the complementary roles of genomic offset and habitat suitability in assessing invasion risks under climate change. Moreover, incorporating adaptive genomic variation into predictive models can significantly enhance future invasion risk predictions and enable effective management strategies for biological invasions in the future.

Global climate change is expected to accelerate biological invasions, necessitating accurate risk forecasting and management strategies. However, current invasion risk assessments often overlook adaptive genomic variation, which plays a significant role in the persistence and expansion of invasive populations. Here we used Molgula manhattensis, a highly invasive ascidian, as a model to assess its invasion risks along Chinese coasts under climate change. Through population genomics analyses, we identified two genetic clusters, the north and south clusters, based on geographic distributions. To predict invasion risks, we employed the gradient forest and species distribution models to calculate genomic offset and species habitat suitability, respectively. These approaches yielded distinct predictions: the gradient forest model suggested a greater genomic offset to future climatic conditions for the north cluster (i.e., lower invasion risks), while the species distribution model indicated higher future habitat suitability for the same cluster (i.e, higher invasion risks). By integrating these models, we found that the south cluster exhibited minor genome-niche disruptions in the future, indicating higher invasion risks. Our study highlights the complementary roles of genomic offset and habitat suitability in assessing invasion risks under climate change. Moreover, incorporating adaptive genomic variation into predictive models can significantly enhance future invasion risk predictions and enable effective management strategies for biological invasions in the future.