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Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

Authors: Zhixin Zhang; César Capinha; Nisikawa Usio; Robbie Weterings; Xuan Liu; Yiming Li; José M. Landeria; +2 Authors

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

Abstract

Abstract Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide. These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species. Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Habitat Suitability, Procambarus Clarkii, Climate Change, Procambarus clarkii, 2502 Climatología, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Species Distribution Modelling, Habitat suitability, Species distribution modelling, 240114-4 Taxonomía animal. Peces, Climate change, Pacifastacus Leniusculus

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    39
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
39
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid