• Energy Research

AbstractIn humid forests in Southeast Asia, many species from dozens of plant families flower gregariously and fruit synchronously at irregular multi-year intervals1–4. Little is known about how climate change will impact these community-wide mass reproductive events. Here, we perform a comprehensive analysis of reproductive phenology and its environmental drivers based on a monthly reproductive phenology record from 210 species in 41 families in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the proportion of flowering and fruiting species decreased from 1976 to 2010. Using a phenology model, we find that 57% of species in the Dipterocarpaceae family respond to both drought and low-temperature cues for flowering. We show that low-temperature flowering cues will become less available in the future in the RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, leading to decreased flowering opportunities of these species in a wide region from Thailand to the island of Borneo. Our results highlight the vulnerability of and variability in phenological responses across species in tropical ecosystems that differ from temperate and boreal biomes.

Gelam tree or Melaleuca cajuputi (M. cajuputi) is an important species for the local economy as well as coastal ecosystem protection in Terengganu, Malaysia. This study aimed at producing a current habitat suitability map and predicting future potential habitat distribution for M. cajuputi in Terengganu based on Species distribution modeling (SDM) using the Maximum Entropy principle. Our modeling results show that for the current potential distribution of M. cajuputi species, only 10.82% (1346.5 km2) of Terengganu area is suitable habitat, which 0.96% of the areas are under high, 2.44% moderate and 7.42% poor habitat suitability. The model prediction for future projection shows that the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi would decrease significantly in the year 2050 under RCP 4.5 where the largest contraction from suitable to unsuitable habitat area is about 442.1 km2 and under RCP 2.6 is the highest expansion from unsuitable to suitable habitat area (267.5 km2). From the future habitat suitability projection, we found that the habitat suitability in Marang would degrade significantly under all climate scenarios, while in Setiu the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi remains stable throughout the climate change scenarios. The modeling prediction shows a significant influence on the soil properties, temperature, and precipitation during monsoon months. These results could benefit conservationist and policymakers for decision making. The present model could also give a perception into potential habitat suitability of M. cajuputi in the future and to improve our understanding of the species’ response under the changing climate.