• Energy Research

A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from the Latvian district heating system that is not covered by the European Union (EU) Emission Trading System (non-ETS). Three policy instruments were included in the system dynamic model: carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient building renovations with the aim to decrease energy consumption. Eight development scenarios were examined, taking into account different policy mixes for the transition of the heat network to the low-temperature regime. The heat tariff was used as the main indicator to determine the pace and structure of the technology change. The existing natural gas technologies and three renewable energy technologies (biomass combustion equipment, heat pump, and solar collectors with accumulation) were included in the model. Modeling results show substantial CO2 reduction potential; however, the results are highly dependent on the applied financial instruments. It is recommended to apply a policy mix, including all the proposed policy instruments—carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient renovation.

AbstractArticle is about development scenarios for the Latvian district heating system in which a policy instrument for energy efficiency improvement is used to achieve a higher share of renewable energy. The system dynamics model was used to determine whether it is possible to use energy efficiency policy to accelerate a shift from fossil fuels to renewables in district heating. In addition, the task was to determine measures which would help to remove barriers for renewable resource technology implementation. Six different development scenarios were viewed in the article. Results reveal that increased energy efficiency at heat source have no direct impact on fossil energy and renewable energy ratio. By increasing energy efficiency it is only possible to vary renewable energy share between different renewable technologies. It is possible to reach 40% biomass energy share and 30% solar energy share in 2030 when policy is used only for biomass technologies, but 20% biomass energy share and 50% solar energy share could be achieved by implementing policy only for solar technologies. The main barrier for switching from fossil energy to renewable energy is a lot of new gas boilers which were installed during reconstructions at many heat sources in the past few years. It is possible to reach even 97.47% renewable energy share in district heating in 2030 if the service life for gas boilers is reduced to 5 years.

Abstract In the article, a possibility to introduce the 4th generation district heating (4GDH) in Latvia is analyzed with the system dynamic modeling. Three policy instruments were included into the system dynamic model: subsidies, instrument for risk reduction and instrument for efficiency increase, and their impact on the system operation was analyzed. Six development scenarios are examined in the article, two of which are supplemented with the transition of heat network to the low-temperature regime at a different share of the renewable energy (60%, 80%, 95%). The heat tariff was used as the main indicator determining the pace and structure of the technology change. In the model the existing natural gas technology was included and three technologies of the renewable energy – biomass combustion equipment, solar collectors with the accumulation and heat pumps. Results of the modeling shows that scenario, at which no policy instruments are used, reduce CO2 emissions for 58.6% until 2030; but it is possible to achieve a zero emission level, in case political instruments are used.

A comprehensive methodology has been developed to assess the efficiency potential of national heating networks. Considering the available information on heating networks in Latvia, three different heating system models have been identified depending on the district heating (DH) system scale. To determine the total length of heating networks in populated areas, a regression analysis method is used by analysing the correlation between the inhabitants and the length of heating networks. Authors define different alternatives for heat loss reduction, including the renovation of existing heat pipes and lowering heat carrier temperature. An engineering model is prepared for each alternative based on mathematical calculations to evaluate the economic, environmental, and climate impacts. Estimated costs and savings are used to determine the key economic indicator — net present value (NPV).The results show that the potential reduction in national heat losses from heating network renovation is estimated at 569 GWh. It would reduce the national heat loss rate from around 12% to 6% from the produced heat. Lowering the heating network temperature saves an additional 57 GWh. However, the main benefit of lowering heat carrier temperature is the possibility to use low-cost plastic pipes, which increases the overall economic benefit of the heating network renovation.

The article examines the transition from conventional district heating (DH) system to a 4th generation DH (4GDH) system using system dynamics modeling and economic feasibility analysis. Six alternative scenarios are studied. Energy saving measures reduce energy consumption, CO2 emissions and installed capacity of heating equipment thus facilitating the transition of the DH system towards zero emission system. Reduction of the required installed heating capacity allows implementing a low-temperature regime for heat distribution networks. For four of the analyzed scenarios this regime was achieved without increase of electricity consumption for heat supply. Results show that the implementation of 4GDH depends on the policies applied. The research identifies a balance point between the implementation of energy efficiency measures at the source and at heat consumers’ side. The article shows how the price of a fossil fuel influence the share of heat energy production and the balance point between investment at the source and heat consumers side.

Increasing of renewable energy share in total energy production is a direction that leads towards European Union’s aims of carbon neutrality by 2050, as well as increases energy self-sufficiency and independence. Some of the main challenges to increase renewable energy share while providing efficient and secure energy supply are related to optimization and profitability of de-centralized energy production systems. Integration of energy storage systems in addition to decentralized renewable energy production, for example, by solar panels, leads to more effective electricity supply and smart energy solutions. The modelling of such complex dynamic system can be performed using system dynamics method. The aim of the article is to forecast the practice of electricity storage in Latvia in the coming decades. A system dynamics model predicting the implementation of battery storage in private households was created for the case study of Latvia. Modelling results reveal that under the right conditions for electricity price, investment costs and with the right policy interventions battery storage technologies combined with PV panels have high potential for utilization in household sector. Model results show that in baseline scenario with no additional policies up 21 422 households or 10.8 % of Latvian households could have combined PV and battery system installed in 2050. Moderate subsidy policy can help to increase this number up to 25 118.

Abstract Article is about economic analysis of promising wood products in Latvian forest sector. Three products: bio-oil, lyocell and xylan were analyzed. Currently none of the products are manufactured in Latvia. System dynamics modelling was used to determine which of the products have higher added value and which of them is more feasible. Input data for the model was taken from scientific literature and from already existing factories. It was assumed that the chosen products were manufactured as separate products, while treating the leftovers as energy source or waste. It was done to see how feasible the products are on their own. Results show that for both bio-oil and lyocell there is a positive profit value with a possibility to increase it even more in the future, while decreasing the share formed by capital costs. In case of xylan, the profit is negative, which makes xylan unprofitable. Although xylan is not feasible as a separate product, its value can be increased by manufacturing it together with other co-products, which can be obtained and manufactured from wood leftovers, therefore decreasing the specific capital costs per product and using wood in efficient manner.

AbstractThe paper analyses possibilities for CO2 emission reduction into the centralized district heating system by using the index decomposition analysis: Kaya identity equation. The classical Kaya equation is complemented with an energy efficiency indicator of a district heating system. The paper focuses on the impact of the Kaya equation components on the CO2 emission reduction. The elaborated methodology is tested in order to analyze possibilities for CO2 emission reduction at district heating systems in Latvia. 3 scenarios were formed for the forecast of the CO2 emission reduction. In case the current model for the state development is continued (scenario1) CO2 emissions will be reduced for 13%; however, in the scenario of orderly and balanced DH systems they will reduce for 29% by 2020 as compared to 2012.